| It’s critical that we bring our deficits down — and soon. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, debt problems pass through the system very quickly. When there’s a lot of debt, like there is today, it has to be sold — and we’re now at a point where there aren’t enough buyers for that debt. Historically, when that happens, bad things follow. So we need to get this problem under control and we need to do it fast. |
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The Mechanics of the Big Cycle
2025-06-09
If you study the patterns of history, you find interrelated cycles in which global economic and political orders rise and inevitably break down due to specific cause-effect relationships playing out through time.
In my research, I’ve found that when you have the combination of the monetary order breaking down — like a debt crisis — and the internal political order breaking down, you have a very serious situation.
I believe we are facing one of these inflection points today. With our current levels of prosperity, it can be difficult to see this happening in real-time. But when you step back and look at the mechanics, the broader picture begins to emerge.
I recently had the opportunity to discuss this perspective with the IMF. And for those who are interested, I dive into what these
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