| In the late 1970’s, I calculated that we were going to have a global debt default. I was so confident in what that meant for the markets that I went to Congress to share my perspective. I couldn’t have been more wrong. While several countries defaulted on their debt, the impact on markets was the opposite of what I expected. And I lost a lot of money — for me and for my clients. I had to let all of my employees go. But it was the best experience that ever happened to me because it taught me that pain + reflection = progress. And it taught me three lessons that became the foundation of Bridgewater’s success. 1) It gave me humility — the fear of being wrong was so strong that I had to always ask, “How do I know I’m right?” 2) It taught me the power of diversification — and how 15 good, uncorrelated return streams could lower risk by 80% without impacting returns 3) I realized I wanted an idea meritocracy |
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Why I’m Pessimistic About the Debt Problem
2025-10-24
The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late.
It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like.
Any sort of bipartisan effort that comes after will both take time and be unlikely to be effective, because those commissions generally don’t work very well in practice.
That’s what it looks like to me. I’m curious to hear if you see things similarly.
@TheProfGPod
Ray Dalio Explains Gold v. Fiat Currencies
2025-09-23
Gold is now the second largest reserve currency, behind the US dollar.
To understand why, you need to look at the history of fiat currencies (like the dollar) and hard currencies (like gold).
The way I see it, we’re currently facing a classic currency devaluation similar to what we saw in the 1970s or the 1930s. In both of those cases, fiat currencies around the world all went down together — and also went down in relationship to hard currencies, like gold.
If events today follow a similar pattern, that makes hard currencies an attractive asset to hold.
At least, that’s how it looks through my eyes. I’m curious to hear what you think.
You can watch the full conversation here: ?feature=shared
My Biggest Failure Became My Strength
2025-08-20
One principle that I’ve really learned is “Pain + Reflect = Progress.”
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