The Importance of Having a Reserve Currency

2026-03-19

When new technologies emerge, people often assume the winning technology automatically means winning investments. History shows us that’s rarely the case.

Most companies disappear as competition sorts out the winners and losers, but the underlying technology will endure and continue transforming the world.

So are we in an AI bubble? Yes. But that has nothing to do with the lasting power of this innovation. @allin #ai #bubble #raydalio

2026-02-25

Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call the "Big Cycle." By knowing what this classic process looks like and then comparing it with what is happening, one can better understand what is happening and what might happen. The article was very popular, getting more than 75 million views, and a number of people asked what it all meant for investing.

Because so many people asked, I am now passing along to you the book’s next chapter, "Investing in Light of the Big Cycle." I think that it gives a good perspective on investing at this time. You can read the full chapter here:

2026-01-28

The income and wealth gap in the US are the highest they’ve been in almost 100 years. It’s something that need to be addressed before it creates even more extreme internal conflicts.

However, I worry about the practical impacts of wealth taxes on the economic system. And that’s because there’s a difference between wealth and money.

It’s all about the mechanics. Bubbles burst when there’s a need for money to generate cash flow. Wealth taxes would create a situation where people who are wealthy on paper need to sell assets to cover their liabilities. And that can quickly create a dynamic that leads to a broader issue.

It’s something to watch in the coming years.

#wealthtaxes #wef26

2025-12-01

In 1979, I was so broke that I had to borrow $4,000 from my Dad to help take care of my family.

I had calculated that American banks had lent much more money to foreign countries than they would be able to pay back, and anticipated an imminent debt crisis.

But I couldn’t have been more wrong. I didn’t fully understand the impacts of quantitative easing, and so I lost money for myself and I lost money for my clients.

Looking back, it was the most painful experience I could imagine — but it was also the best thing that ever happened to me, because it taught me humility.

2025-11-29

Trying to figure out your holiday gift giving this year? I have a great suggestion for you.

There are organizations like @TisBestCards and @donorschooseorg that will give a donation to your recipient’s favorite charity, on your behalf.

I think gifts like these are more in keeping with what the holiday season is really about, so I wanted to pass it along. #redefinegifting

2025-11-06

History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:

1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts
2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation
3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism
4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources
5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order

2025-11-03

My first real job was caddying, and it changed my life.

It was the 1960s, and the people I was caddying for were always talking about the stock market.

So, I took my caddying money and bought Northeast Airlines because it was the only company I had heard of that was selling for less than $5 a share.

Little did I know, but the stock was so cheap because they were about to go broke. But I got lucky and they got acquired, so I tripled my money.

And just like that, I was hooked.

2025-10-02

I can’t say exactly how effective Bitcoin is as a money, but it’s being perceived by many as an alternative money and so is worth paying attention to.

Money needs to be both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth — and the latter is more important.

I doubt that any central bank will take it on as a reserve currency. That’s because all of the transactions are public, so there’s no privacy to it, and there’s a risk that in the future the code could be broken to make it less effective through government controls.

My personal approach is that I do have some Bitcoin in my portfolio, but not much. @TheMasterInvestorPodcast

You can watch the full conversation here: