My Honest Thoughts on United States’ Debt

2026-03-17

I’ve found that most wars are filled with surprises, but the stakes of this conflict are obvious: it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz.

We’ve seen this pattern before—with the Dutch in the 17th century and the British in 1956. When a world power reveals military and financial weakness, the world order shifts.

In my latest article, I look at the mechanics of the current Middle East crisis. You can find it here: https://raydalio.substack.com/p/it-all-comes-down-to-who-controls?r=7i6zcq

2026-02-26

In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again.

Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them so low that they are bad for the creditor.

That leads to cycles of money creation and borrowing that are predictable.

These cycles must happen, due to the nature of the dynamic around them. Understanding the underlying mechanics driving these patterns can help you understand what is likely to happen next.

2026-02-20

The secret to longevity is having meaningful work and meaningful relationships. I’ve found that both are required to sustain the energy to keep operating at a high level.

That’s because you need a genuine, shared passion to make what you’re doing as great as it can be. And you need to pursue that work with people you genuinely care about and who genuinely care about you.

If you have those two things working in tandem, you have the basis for a life of continuous evolution, which is ultimately what longevity is all about.

#longevity #raydalio #principles

2026-01-21

It’s now happening. The existing fiat monetary order, the domestic political order, and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down, so we are at the brink of wars. It all is happening because of the Big Cycle that is driven by the five big forces I’ve described repeatedly and laid out in detail in my book and Youtube video titled Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order.

You can watch the full version of Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order here: ?si=64TiD82-MtBc8gz7

2026-01-12

A lot of you have asked, how am I training my digital twin?

The AI version of me is being fed a lot of data — my principles, books, interviews, and more. That way, it can think through things on its own, and respond the way I would likely respond.

I’m also going through a manual process of checking the answers it’s giving to see if it’s what I would actually say. I’m thankful to have great people helping me in that process, as it requires a lot of effort.

I hope you’ll try it out at the link below and let me know what you think.

https://bit.ly/4a54Si9

2025-12-30

On New Year’s Eve, my family members and I go around the table and reflect on our past year’s resolutions. How do you make your New Year’s resolution? How do you stay accountable?

#principles #raydalio #newyears

2025-10-17

Ultimately, it’s all about human nature.

In my view, the biggest risk we face are our own selfish, mutually-destructive tendencies. If we’re able to rise above them and find compromises, we can avoid the worst possible outcomes.

But to do that, we need to stop fighting with each other and align on policies that improve conditions for everyone.

2025-10-08

The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late.

It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like.

Any sort of bipartisan effort that comes after will both take time and be unlikely to be effective, because those commissions generally don’t work very well in practice.

That’s what it looks like to me. I’m curious to hear if you see things similarly.

@TheProfGPod

You can watch the full conversation here: _JLSAat94?si=AIGAM6BTiw7ZWCCC