This is the Holy Grail of Investment Strategy

2025-12-02

This year, I’d encourage you to consider a unique kind of holiday gift — a donation your friends and family can give to the charity of their choice. This kind of gift is far more meaningful, and it’s simple. Anyone can do it.

If you’re interested, check out organizations like TisBest and @donorschooseorg .

I think gifts like these are more in keeping with what the holiday season is really about, so I wanted to pass it along. #redefinegifting #givingtuesday

2025-11-06

History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:

1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts
2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation
3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism
4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources
5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order

2025-11-03

My first real job was caddying, and it changed my life.

It was the 1960s, and the people I was caddying for were always talking about the stock market.

So, I took my caddying money and bought Northeast Airlines because it was the only company I had heard of that was selling for less than $5 a share.

Little did I know, but the stock was so cheap because they were about to go broke. But I got lucky and they got acquired, so I tripled my money.

And just like that, I was hooked.

2025-09-09

There are smart tariffs and there are not smart tariffs.

Every type of tax, tariffs included, has pros and cons. Done well, tariffs can provide a source of revenue while simultaneously reducing geopolitical risk.

But to be effective, they need to be engineered prudently, efficiently, and surgically.

2025-09-04

I’m doing an AMA on @reddit today, starting at 1pm ET.

I always enjoy hearing from you all, and discussing whatever’s on your mind.

So, if you have any questions for me, go check out the Reddit thread linked in the comments. I’ll get to as many as I can.

2025-09-03

I’m looking forward to doing another AMA and answering whatever questions you have on Thursday, 9/4 from 1-3pm ET.

For over 50 years, I’ve been in the business of studying the cause/effect relationships that drive how reality works and developing principles for dealing with reality well. I then programmed these principles into computers as decision rules to bet on them working. Because the causes come before the effects, this principles-based approach worked amazingly well for me.

Since I’m 76, I’m now at a stage in my life that I want to pass along what’s of value. So far, I’ve passed along my perspectives and principles about how to approach life, work, the changing world order, debt, and markets in my books, videos, and social media. But I think that what is most important is

2025-08-20

One principle that I’ve really learned is “Pain + Reflect = Progress.”

2025-07-14

I’m very happy to learn that my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle was selected by @barnesandnoble as one of their Best Business Books of the year.

The book conveys what I’ve learned over the past 50 years as a macro investor about the mechanics of how countries go broke — and what that means for the US today.

I hope you’ll read it and learn about it so that you understand what we’re dealing with, and what you can do to navigate the interesting times ahead.