| There are five major forces that together, operate in a big cycle: - Financial force – money, debts, markets, economy - Domestic political force – internal order and disorder, wealth gaps, and conflict between the left and the right - International world order force – great power conflicts as rising power challenges - Humans’ inventiveness force– Advances in technology - Acts of nature force – droughts, floods, and pandemics We can use these forces to understand the reality that we are now living out, and to understand the risks of where we are headed. @allin #principles #bigcycle #fiveforces |
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Investing During a Changing World Order
2026-02-25
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call the "Big Cycle." By knowing what this classic process looks like and then comparing it with what is happening, one can better understand what is happening and what might happen. The article was very popular, getting more than 75 million views, and a number of people asked what it all meant for investing.
Because so many people asked, I am now passing along to you the book’s next chapter, "Investing in Light of the Big Cycle." I think that it gives a good perspective on investing at this time. You can read the full chapter here:
Ray Dalio’s Point of View on Wealth Taxes
2026-01-28
The income and wealth gap in the US are the highest they’ve been in almost 100 years. It’s something that need to be addressed before it creates even more extreme internal conflicts.
However, I worry about the practical impacts of wealth taxes on the economic system. And that’s because there’s a difference between wealth and money.
It’s all about the mechanics. Bubbles burst when there’s a need for money to generate cash flow. Wealth taxes would create a situation where people who are wealthy on paper need to sell assets to cover their liabilities. And that can quickly create a dynamic that leads to a broader issue.
It’s something to watch in the coming years.
#wealthtaxes #wef26
The Most Important Lesson: Humility
2025-12-01
In 1979, I was so broke that I had to borrow $4,000 from my Dad to help take care of my family.
I had calculated that American banks had lent much more money to foreign countries than they would be able to pay back, and anticipated an imminent debt crisis.
But I couldn’t have been more wrong. I didn’t fully understand the impacts of quantitative easing, and so I lost money for myself and I lost money for my clients.
Looking back, it was the most painful experience I could imagine — but it was also the best thing that ever happened to me, because it taught me humility.
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