| After spending time in Washington, DC discussing the budget deficit with senior people on both sides of the aisle, it’s clear to me that we are unlikely to change the debt trajectory we’re on and avoid the painful consequences. While virtually everyone agrees on the need to address our debt problem in a balanced way that includes tax increases and cuts to benefits, they also agree that they cannot speak up because politics have become absolutist. We must find a solution around absolutist pledges like, ”I will not raise taxes,” or “I will not reduce benefits,” when they are desperately needed. |
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The Mechanics of the Big Cycle
2025-06-09
If you study the patterns of history, you find interrelated cycles in which global economic and political orders rise and inevitably break down due to specific cause-effect relationships playing out through time.
In my research, I’ve found that when you have the combination of the monetary order breaking down — like a debt crisis — and the internal political order breaking down, you have a very serious situation.
I believe we are facing one of these inflection points today. With our current levels of prosperity, it can be difficult to see this happening in real-time. But when you step back and look at the mechanics, the broader picture begins to emerge.
I recently had the opportunity to discuss this perspective with the IMF. And for those who are interested, I dive into what these
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