| I’m looking forward to doing another AMA and answering whatever questions you have on Thursday, 9/4 from 1-3pm ET. For over 50 years, I’ve been in the business of studying the cause/effect relationships that drive how reality works and developing principles for dealing with reality well. I then programmed these principles into computers as decision rules to bet on them working. Because the causes come before the effects, this principles-based approach worked amazingly well for me. Since I’m 76, I’m now at a stage in my life that I want to pass along what’s of value. So far, I’ve passed along my perspectives and principles about how to approach life, work, the changing world order, debt, and markets in my books, videos, and social media. But I think that what is most important is that you have your own good principles and perspectives that suit you, and I believe in thoughtful disagreement to find out what’s best, so I love have exchanges about how the world works with you and others. If you want to ask me anything, you don’t have to wait for the AMA to begin. We’re going to collect questions from my social media pages so I can answer as many as possible when the time comes. |
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One principle that I’ve really learned is “Pain + Reflect = Progress.”
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The U.S. dollar used to be backed by gold — and it’s not farfetched to think we may be headed there again in the future.
History shows us that the same cycles repeat time and time again. One such cycle is related to currency devaluation.
Once people start to lose trust in the fiat system, we see a specific cause and effect reaction occur.
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Will this same pattern happen again? It’s hard to say, and it wouldn’t happen anytime soon. But it is conceivable.
Ray Dalio Explains Money Vs Credit
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In an advanced economy, credit does more good than bad. But it’s important to remember that borrowing creates cycles — and if the cycle goes up, it eventually needs to come down.
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Will the United States Government Go Broke?
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In 10 years, the US government will be $55-60 trillion in debt (which will be 7-7.5 times government revenue) because there will be $25-30 trillion of additional borrowing. That amounts to about $425,000 of debt per American family.
When I calculate the supply and demand for this debt, I don’t see enough buyers to buy the debt the US needs to sell, which will cause big problems.
We can avoid the worst-case scenario, but we need to act now.
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My Honest Thoughts on the United States’ Tariffs
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The Mechanics of the Big Cycle
2025-06-09
If you study the patterns of history, you find interrelated cycles in which global economic and political orders rise and inevitably break down due to specific cause-effect relationships playing out through time.
In my research, I’ve found that when you have the combination of the monetary order breaking down — like a debt crisis — and the internal political order breaking down, you have a very serious situation.
I believe we are facing one of these inflection points today. With our current levels of prosperity, it can be difficult to see this happening in real-time. But when you step back and look at the mechanics, the broader picture begins to emerge.
I recently had the opportunity to discuss this perspective with the IMF. And for those who are interested, I dive into what these
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