Follow us or the Bunny gets it. No
Bunny gets it

Subscribe for newsletter


Follow us in Twitter



Gold standard and monetary metals:


Subscribe for browser push notifications

Tag Archive: #USD

Status of US Pivot To Asia

2017-03-22

by

2017-03-22

AsiaPivot
Pivot still taking place, but without TPP, more militaristic. President Trump seems a little less confrontational toward China. China is unlikely to be cited as a currency manipulator in next month's Treasury report.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Theme Questioned

2017-03-20

by

2017-03-20

catlion
Recent developments have given rise to doubts over the divergence theme, which we suggested have shaped the investment climate. There are some at the ECB who suggest rates can rise before the asset purchases end. The Bank of England left rates on hold, but it was a hawkish hold, as there was a dissent in favor of an immediate rate hike, and the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee showed that their patience with both rising price prices and the...

Read More »

Oil Supply Remains Resilient, Prices Heavy

2017-03-19

by

2017-03-19

Nearly half of OPEC's intended cuts are being offset by an increase in US output. The contango rewards the accumulation of inventories. The drop in oil prices probably weighs more on European reflation story than the US.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 17: Dollar Remains Heavy

2017-03-17

by

2017-03-17

The dollar is softer against most of the major currencies to cap a poor weekly performance. The Dollar Index is posting what may be its biggest weekly loss since last November. The combination of the Federal Reserve not signaling an acceleration of normalization, while the market remains profoundly skeptical of even its current indications, and perceptions that the ECB and BOE can raise earlier than anticipated weighed on the dollar. The PBOC...

Read More »

FX Daily, March 16: Greenback Consolidates Losses as Yields Stabilize

2017-03-16

by

2017-03-16

The US dollar remained under pressure in Asia following the disappointment that the FOMC did not signal a more aggressive stance, even though its delivered the nearly universally expected 25 bp rate hike. News that the populist-nationalist Freedom Party did worse than expected in the Dutch elections also helped underpin the euro, which rose to nearly $1.0750 from a low close to $1.06 yesterday.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 15: Greenback Softens Ahead of FOMC

2017-03-15

by

2017-03-15

The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains as the market awaits the outcome of the well-telegraphed FOMC meeting. In recent weeks, the combination of data and official comments have swayed market, which had previously anticipated a hike in May or June.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 14: Brexit Takes Fresh Toll on Sterling, While Dollar Firms more Broadly

2017-03-14

by

2017-03-14

UK Prime Minister May got the parliamentary approval the courts ruled was necessary to formally trigger Article 50. It is not clear what UK she will lead out the EU. Scotland is beginning the legal proceedings to hold another referendum on independence. There is some talk that Northern Ireland, which voted to remain, might be allowed to rejoin the Republic of Ireland.

Read More »

Trump Administration Modifying Stance on Way to G20

2017-03-14

by

2017-03-14

Confrontation with China has been dialed down. Criticism of the Fed has been walked back. There is less talk about the dollar. Employment data has been embraced.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 13: Bonds and Equities Rally, Dollar Heavy

2017-03-13

by

2017-03-13

Hit by profit-taking ahead of the weekend, despite US jobs data that remove the last hurdle to another Fed hike this week, the greenback remains on the defensive. It has softened against all the major currencies and many of the emerging market currencies. The chief exception is those in eastern and central Europe.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Succinct Views of Ten Events and Market Drivers: Week Ahead

2017-03-13

by

2017-03-13

The week ahead is the busiest week of the first quarter. It sees four major central meetings, including the Federal Reserve which is likely to raise rates for the second time in four months. The Dutch hold the first European election of the year, and the populist-nationalist party remains in contention for the top slot. The week concludes with the G20 meeting, the first that the Trump Administration's presence will be felt.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 10: US Jobs Data: Deja Vu All Over Again?

2017-03-10

by

2017-03-10

A week ago, after nine Fed officials had spoken, the market widely expected Yellen and Fischer to confirm that the table was set for a rate hike later this month. They did, and the dollar and US interest rates fell. Now, after a strong ADP jobs report (298k), everyone recognizes upside risk to today’s national report, and the dollar has lost its upside momentum against most major currencies, but the Japanese yen.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 09: Pre-ECB Squaring Lifts Euro in a Strong USD Context

2017-03-09

by

2017-03-09

The euro tested the lower of its range near $1.05 in Asia before short covering in Europe lifted back toward yesterday's highs near $1.0575. However, buoyed by the upside surprise in the ADP estimate of private sector jobs growth, the dollar is firmer against most other currencies today. The US 10-year yield is up 20 bp this week.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 08: Dollar Bid as Rates Firm

2017-03-08

by

2017-03-08

The US dollar is moving higher against nearly all the other major foreign currencies today. As far as we can tell, the driving force remains interested rate considerations. US rates are rising in absolute terms and about Europe and Japan. The US 10-year yield is moving above the downtrend that has been in place since the day after the Fed hiked rates last December.

Read More »

A Few Thoughts about the US Labor Market

2017-03-08

by

2017-03-08

work
The 94 mln people POTUS claims are not working is true but terribly misleading. What happened to agriculture a century ago is happening to manufacturing. New industries are less labor intensive than smokestack industries.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 07: Greenback Continues to Recover from the Late Pre-Weekend Slide

2017-03-07

by

2017-03-07

The US dollar has continued to recover from the slide on what still largely appears to have been a buy the rumor sell the fact response to Yellen's speech just before last weekend. Yellen was the last of around 11 Fed officials that spoke last week, and nearly all but Bullard signaled readiness to hike rates at next month's meeting.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 06: The Dollar Gives Back More Before Consolidating

2017-03-06

by

2017-03-06

The US dollar's pre-weekend pullback was extended in early European turnover but appeared to quickly run out of steam. The prospect of a constructive US employment report at the end of the week, especially given the steady decline in weekly initial jobless claims to new cyclical lows, underscores the likelihood that the Fed hikes rates next week. Bloomberg puts the odds above 90%, while the CME estimates a nearly 80% chance.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Four Sets of Questions and Tentative Answers for the Week Ahead

2017-03-06

by

2017-03-06

The week ahead features the ECB meeting and the US February jobs report. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets, Europe reports industrial production, Japan reports January current account figures, and China reports its latest inflation and lending figures. We frame this week's discussion of the drivers in terms of four sets of questions and offer some tentative answers.

Read More »

The Resilience of Globalization and the US Dollar

2017-03-04

by

2017-03-04

strong
Populism-nationalism is not really a wave sweeping across the world. Where it succeeded was where a center-right party in a two-party system embraced part of the populist agenda. Center-right parties in Europe are not embracing key agenda for populist-naitonalist, but appear to be tacking to the right on domestic issues.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 02: Dollar Remains Bid

2017-03-02

by

2017-03-02

The US dollar is bid against the major currencies as the combination the increased expectation of a Fed rate hike and the President's commitment to fiscal stimulus buoys sentiment. The dollar-bloc, where speculators in the futures market, have grown a net long position, are leading the move.

Read More »