Tag Archive: #USD

FOMC Says Little New, December Hike Remains Likely Scenario

2016-11-05

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2016-11-05

FOMC
Fed does not expand much on Sept. statement. Bar to December hike seems low. There were two rather than three dissents.

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FX Daily, November 04: US Jobs Figures: Another Time the Swiss Franc Strengthens

2016-11-04

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2016-11-04

FX Performance, November 03 2016
With the not convincing U.S. jobs number, both the EUR and, in particular, the Swiss Franc could improve. With continuing political uncertainty in the U.S., more speculators closed their short CHF positions

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US Jobs Data Maintains Fed Hike Expectations

2016-11-04

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2016-11-04

Honey mooners
US jobs data was largely in line or better than expected. The stronger earnings growth may be more important than the headline. Canada's data was mostly disappointing.

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FX Daily, November 03: Political Angst Drives Markets

2016-11-03

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2016-11-03

FX Performance, November 03 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates are trading below 1.20 on the exchange, providing those clients holding CHF with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past six years. The Pounds woes have been well documented but with a key day of economic data releases ahead, is it all about to change?

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FX Daily, November 02: Standpat FOMC Trumped by US Political Jitters

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

FX Performance, November 02 2016 Movers and Shakers
The single biggest driver in the capital markets is the continued narrowing of the US election polls. The prospect of a Trump presidency and the dramatic changes that could entail is rattling investors and spurring position squaring.The dollar is broadly lower as are stocks. The surge in global yields has been arrested.

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FX Daily, November 01: Dollar and Yen Slip in Quiet even if Eventful Turnover

2016-11-01

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2016-11-01

FX Performance, November 01 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is posting minor losses against most of the major currencies today.The Japanese yen is the exception, as the greenback continues to straddle JPY105. There have been several developments today, and the US also has a full economic calendar today. The most important of the developments was the upbeat message from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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FX Daily, October 31: Respite for Market Nerves Lifts Peso, Rand, and US Dollar

2016-10-31

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2016-10-31

FX Performance, October 31 2016 Movers and Shakers
he latest US political news before roiled thin pre-weekend markets, but cooler heads and more of them are prevailing today. Trump's fortune in the polls had bottomed prior to the re-opening of the investigation into Clinton's emails and the national polls have narrowed.

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FX Weekly Preview: Six Thumbnail Sketches of This Week’s Dollar Drivers

2016-10-30

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2016-10-30

Thumbnail
Four central banks meet, but expectations for fresh action are low. The US latest election news does not appear to be altering the projected electoral college outcome. UK press are speculating about Carney possibly resigning. We are skeptical.

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FX Daily, October 28: Dollar Sidelined, Krona Stabilizes, Rates Firm

2016-10-28

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2016-10-28

FX Performance, October 28
The main development here in the last full week of October is the sharp rise in bond yields. US 10-year yields rose nine bp this week coming into today's session, which features the first look at Q3 GDP. The two-year yield is up four bp. European 10-year benchmark yields mostly rose 11-17 bp. UK Gilts were are the upper end of that range. Two-year yields are 3-5 bp higher.

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Yellen and Fischer Still Singing from the Same Song Book

2016-10-28

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2016-10-28

Many see Yellen and Fischer at odds over benefits of high pressure economy. However, this fails to put the comments in the proper context--same message different styles. They are arguing against the doves who don't want to hike this year.

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FX Daily, October 27: Rising Yields Continue to be the Main Driver

2016-10-27

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2016-10-27

FX Performance, October 27 2016 Movers and Shakers
The euro remains pinned near the seven-month low it recorded two days ago near $1.0850. It approached $1.0950 yesterday and has been confined to about a 15-tick range on either side of $1.0905 today. Against the yen, the dollar remains near the three-month high (~JPY104.85) also seen two days ago. New dollar buying emerged yesterday near JPY104.

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FX Daily, October 26: Euro and Yen Extend Recovery

2016-10-26

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2016-10-26

FX Performance, October 26, Movers and Shakers
After touching 1.08, which apparently the "new floor", the SNB moved the EUR/CHF upwards yesterday and Monday. Today's EUR recovery against USD, let also the EUR/CHF rise. The US dollar's upside momentum reversed in North America yesterday and has been sold in Asia and Europe. This seems like mostly position adjustments ahead of next week's FOMC, BOE and RBA meetings, in an otherwise subdued news period. The euro has at three-day highs. It has...

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Yuan Not

2016-10-25

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2016-10-25

There were two dogs that did not bark this year. There are the Japanese yen, which despite negative interest rates and an unprecedented expansion of the central bank's balance sheet, the yen has strengthened 15% against the dollar. The yen has been the strongest major currency, and the third strongest currency in the world behind the high-yielding Brazilian real, recovering from last year's drop, and the Russian rouble, aided by a rebound in oil.

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FX Daily, October 24: Dollar Begins Mostly Slightly Lower, and Risk is On to Start the Week

2016-10-24

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2016-10-24

FX Performance, October 24 2016 Movers and Shakers
Sterling vs the Swiss Franc has remained close to its lowest level in history caused by the aftermath of the Brexit vote back in June and more recently the announcement that Article 50 will be triggered by March 2017. Confidence in Sterling exchange rates has plummeted recently and until we get some form of assurances as to how the talks may go with the European Union we could see Sterling fall even further against the Swiss Franc than its current...

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement in the Week Ahead

2016-10-24

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2016-10-24

opticalillusion
Fitch cut Italy's rating outlook to negative from stable, while DBRS left Portugal's rating and outlook unchanged. Europe and Canada's free trade negotiations broke down, but many seem to be making exaggerating the significance of the drama. Japan and Australia report inflation figures, and both are exceptions to the generalization that price pressures are rising in (most) high income countries.

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FX Daily, October 21: Greenback Ending Week on Firm Note

2016-10-21

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2016-10-21

FX Performance, October 21 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is firm especially against the European complex and emerging market currencies. The yen continues to be resilient, and exporters are thought be capping the dollar above JPY104. The dollar is lower against the yen for the fourth consecutive session and set to snap a three-week advancing streak.

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Cool Video: Double Bloomberg Feature–ECB and US Baby Boomers

2016-10-21

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2016-10-21

Double Feature
This afternoon I had the privilege of being on Bloomberg TV, with anchors Scarlet Fu and Matt Miller. I was joined by an old market friend Bob Sinche. We had a lively discussion (what did you expect?) on two issues. The first was on the ECB. At his press conference earlier today, Draghi indicated that the question of extending QE and tapering was not discussed.

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Draghi Says Nothing to Undermine Expectations of New Action in December

2016-10-20

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2016-10-20

Euro storm
Extending or tapering QE was not discussed, but means little in terms of what the ECB decides in Sept. Draghi said growth risks are on the downside and inflation has yet to enter a meaningful uptrend. Reiterates that abrupt end of purchases is unlikely.

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FX Daily, October 19: FX After China GDP

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

FX Performance, October 19 2016 Movers and Shakers
The Swiss Franc has strengthened against the pound as global uncertainty persists in the form of the UK’s Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election. Looking ahead it seems the CHF may soften a little as we learn of the new President, I found it very interesting that yesterday Paddy Power paid out on any bets for Hilary Clinton to become President in the United States.

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