Tag Archive: US Dollar Index

FX Weekly Review, May 15-20: Swiss Franc recovering against EUR

2017-05-21

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2017-05-21

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, 20 May 2017
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-05-09

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2017-05-09

The economic reports since the last economic update were generally less than expected and disappointing. The weak growth of the last few years had been supported by autos and housing while energy has been a wildcard. When oil prices fell, starting in mid-2014 and bottoming in early 2016, economic growth suffered as the shale industry retrenched.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-03-28

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2017-03-28

B-weekly
The Fed did, as expected, hike rates at their last meeting. And interestingly, interest rates have done nothing but fall since that day. As I predicted in the last BWER, Greenspan’s conundrum is making a comeback. The Fed can do whatever it wants with Fed funds – heck, barely anyone is using it anyway – but they can’t control what the market does with long term rates.

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FX Weekly Review, February 20 – 25: Ranges in FX: Respect the Price Action

2017-02-26

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2017-02-26

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, February 25
It is difficult right now to talk about the foreign exchange market using the dollar as the numeraire. The dollar was stronger against most of the major currencies last week, but not the yen or sterling. The Dollar Index itself was little changed, rising less than 0.15%.

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Are Rate Hikes Bad For Gold?

2017-02-24

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2017-02-24

Federal Funds Target Rate
Here are two different looks at Fed rate hikes since Volcker. The charts are the same, but one presentation is a lot funnier than the other. Let’s take the fist chart and see what correlations exist between rate hikes and the US dollar index.

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FX Weekly Review, February 13 – 18: Why still long the dollar?

2017-02-19

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2017-02-19

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc
Arguments for being long the dollar: FX investors because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates), Bond investors long US Bonds because higher bond yields, On the other side, European and Swiss equities are not so much overvalued as U.S. stocks are.

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The US Dollar Is Now Overvalued Against Almost Every Currency In The World

2017-01-24

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2017-01-24

World Map
In September 1986, The Economist weekly newspaper published its first-ever “Big Mac Index”. It was a light-hearted way for the paper to gauge whether foreign currencies are over- or under-valued by comparing the prices of Big Macs around the world. In theory, the price of a Big Mac in Rio de Janeiro should be the same as a Big Mac in Cairo or Toronto.

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