Tag Archive: Trade

FX Daily, May 16: US Struggles to Strike a Less Strident Tone

2019-05-16

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2019-05-16

Overview: Retail sales and industrial production disappointed in both the US and China prior to the end of the tariff truce, declared by the US in a series of presidential tweets on May 5.  The reaction function of the US to the drop in equities was to play down tensions on three fronts.  First, a US team is expected to return to Beijing in the coming weeks. 

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The Thumbnail Sketch of the Euro You are Looking For

2019-05-16

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2019-05-16

Here is an overview of the broad macro considerations for the euro, with some thoughts about the price action, including volatility. It is shared not so much as an argument as a sketch the considerations that drive a view.

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FX Daily, May 14: Too Weak to Muster Much of a Turnaround Tuesday, Markets See Small Reprieve

2019-05-14

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2019-05-14

OECD Gauge hits Lowest Level
President Trump's willingness to meet China's Xi at the G20 meeting at the end of next month and his "feeling" that an agreement will still be found seemed sufficient to break the momentum that had swept through the capital market.

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FX Daily, May 13: Investors Still Looking for New Balance

2019-05-13

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2019-05-13

The end of the tariff truce between the US and China has discombobulated investors. They had been repeatedly that a deal was close and there had even been talk at the US Treasury about where Trump and Xi should meet to sign the agreement. Now China was given around a month to capitulate to US demands or face a 25% tariff on their remaining exports to the US.

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FX Weekly Preview: Trade, the Dollar, and the Week Ahead

2019-05-13

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2019-05-13

China is isolated on trade. No one supports its trade practices. The idea that China was going to "naturally" evolve to be more like the US, or Europe for that matter, was always fanciful and naive. The emergence of China, as Napoleon warned two centuries ago, would make the world shake.

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FX Daily, May 10: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

2019-05-10

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2019-05-10

Overview:  Contrary to hopes and expectations, the US made good on the presidential tweet and raised the tariff on around $200 bln of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.  Trump indicated that the process that will levy a 25% tariff on the remaining Chinese imports has begun. Also contrary to expectations, Chinese officials did not detail their response, though it is expected to be forthcoming.

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FX Daily, May 09: De-Risking as US-China Trade Talks Resume

2019-05-09

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2019-05-09

The end of the tariff truce between the US and China continues to dominate investment considerations. The truce was often cited in narratives explaining the recovery of equities from the Q4 18 slide. Ahead of the midnight US tariff hike, global equities are being smashed. Korea's Kospi was off 3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was shed 2.4%. Shanghai lost 1.5%.

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FX Daily, May 08: Markets Trying to Stabilize

2019-05-08

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2019-05-08

Overview:  It is taking investors a bit more than two sessions to find its footing after being the unexpected end of the tariff truce between the US and China struck last December. Asia Pacific equities tumbled after the S&P 500 shed nearly 1.7% yesterday, the third largest decline in 2019, but Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating near yesterday's lows.

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FX Daily, May 07: Markets Steady as China Pushes Forward

2019-05-07

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2019-05-07

Overview: News that the US tariff escalation did not scupper trade talks with China has helped the global capital markets stabilize today.  China's Vice Premier Liu He is still leading a delegation to the US.  Most Asian equities recouped part of yesterday's losses, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and Singapore.  Japanese and Korean markets were closed on Monday and bore some selling pressure today.

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FX Daily, May 06: Trump’s Tariff Tweets Help Investors Discover Volatility

2019-05-06

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2019-05-06

Reports that a US-China deal could be struck by May 10 before the weekend left investors ill-prepared for the presidential tweets yesterday that announced that the US was ending the tariff truce. Trump indicated that the 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods would be lifted to 25% at the end of the week and that the remaining $325 bln of Chinese goods that have not been subject to an extra levy, will be slapped with a 25% tariff soon.

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FX Daily, April 18: EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

Overview: A bout of profit-taking in equities began in the US yesterday and has carried through Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in five days, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day advance.  The Nikkei gapped higher to start the week and a gap low tomorrow would undermine the technical outlook.

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FX Daily, April 16: The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Amid light news, global equities are moving higher In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European equities are solid, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moving higher for the fifth consecutive session.

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FX Daily, April 05: Trade Talk and German Industrial Output Lifts Sentiment

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

Overview:  Comments by Chinese President Xi, recognizing substantial progress in trade, helped boost sentiment after the US-China negotiators failed to set a date for the meeting between the two presidents.  Although we have argued that the German economy may be past the worst, the sharp drop in factory orders spooked investors.

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Monthly Macro Chart Review – March

2019-03-08

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2019-03-08

Economic Growth and Investment
We’re changing the format on our Macro updates, breaking the report into two parts. This is part one, a review of the data released the previous month with charts to highlight the ones we deem important. We’ll post another one next week that will be more commentary and the market based indicators we use to monitor recession risk.

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FX Weekly Preview: Drivers, While Marking Time

2019-02-18

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2019-02-18

The main issues for investors have not changed. There are three dominant ones: Trade, growth, and Brexit. Unfortunately, there won’t be any closure in the week ahead, and that may make short-term participants reluctant to turn more aggressive.

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FX Weekly Preview: Little Resolution in the Week Ahead

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

According to legend, the person who unraveled the Gordian Knot would rule the world. No one succeeded until Alexandar the Great took his mighty sword and sliced the knot in half. A young boy saw him afterward, crying on the steps of the Temple of Apollo. "Why are you crying?" the boy asked, "you just conquered the world. "Yes'" Alexander wept, " now there is nothing else for me to do."

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Two Brinkmanship Games and a Possible Third

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

Some historians give Adlai Stevenson credit for inventing the word "brinkmanship" as part of his criticism of US foreign policy under Dulles, who said that "if you are scared of going to the brink, you lost." But surely we can agree that the tactic is as old as civilization. The idea is you take the issue to the very edge, risking a significant confrontation, to force a deal, is the way it may seem.

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FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Reinvigorated

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Last week the focus was on Europe. Prospects of a delay in Brexit helped extend sterling's gains to 11-week highs. Disappointing flash PMI for the eurozone and a dovish Draghi pushed the euro below $1.13 for the first time since mid-December.

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FX Weekly Preview: For the Millionth Time, Markets Exaggerate

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

The S&P 500 fell more than 12% in a few weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 40 bp. There were cries that the sky was falling. A recession is imminent, we are warned by prognosticators. The Fed went ahead and raised interest rates on March 21, 2018, and the S&P 500 proceeded to gap lower the next day and continued to sell-off the following day. Investors did not like the unanimous decision.

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Some Thoughts on What is Happening

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

Elephant
People do not just disagree on what should and will happen, but they disagree on what has happened. As William Faulkner instructed: "The past is not dead. Actually, it's not even past. This is clear in the narratives about the sharp drop in equity markets.

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