Tag Archive: Switzerland

FX Daily, December 17: Dollar Thumped

Overview: The prospects of a UK-EU deal and US stimulus continue to underwrite risk appetites and weigh on the dollar.  Equity markets are moving higher.  Led by Australia and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new record highs, while Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is at its best level since February.

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House View, October 2020

Rising coronavirus cases accompanied by flagging recovery momentum and a fractious run-up to the US elections make prospects for equities highly reliant on 3Q results and further policy stimulus. Against this background we have downgraded our stance on euro area equities from neutral to underweight, following a similar downgrade for US equities in August.

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FX Daily, September 28: Stocks Recover while the Greenback Consolidates

Overview: Following the strong finish in the US before the weekend, global equities are paring last week's slide.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to for a second session. Markets in  Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and India rose by more than 1%.  China and Australia were notable exceptions. 

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“The U.S. economy felt like a balloon in search of a needle” – Part I

As we move deeper and deeper into this covid crisis, more and more people understand that there’s a lot more to fear besides the disease itself. As the economic impact and the full scale of the damage caused by the lockdowns and the shutdowns become undeniable, there are too many questions lacking any sort of convincing answer and the future for so many employees, business owners, investors and ordinary savers seems bleak and uncertain.

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You cannot print your way to prosperity – Part II

Looking at the damage inflicted upon supply chains, production facilities and global trade in particular, how quickly could these operations snap back even if all COVID-related restrictions were lifted tomorrow? Do you think we’ll eventually get back to business as usual, or have we now experienced a permanent shift to a “new normal”?

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Gold doing what it does best – Part II

While the economic forces that drive this rush to precious metals are clearly understandable, there are other, deeper and less obvious factors that must also be taken into account. This “fear of uncertainty”, which pushes demand for gold higher as it has done so many times in the past, is different this time.

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“Unabhängigkeit der Nationalbank (Independence of the SNB),” FuW, 2020

Von verschiedenen Seiten werden Ansprüche an den Gewinn der Nationalbank gestellt. Es sollte in der Kompetenz der SNB liegen, zu entscheiden, welchen Teil ihrer Bilanz sie nicht zur Erfüllung ihrer Aufgaben benötigt.

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Weekly view – Fog warning

Coronavirus cases in the US are rising and high frequency data in the US such as retail foot traffic and employee working hours have flatlined. Meanwhile, in Q2 results, USD36 bn in trading and fixed-income revenues managed to make up for higher loan provisions for US banks.

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Weekly View – Reality check

The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...

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FX Daily, April 6: Glimmer of Hope Lifts Markets

Overview:  Reports suggesting that some of the hot spots for the virus contagion appear to be leveling off, and this is helping underpin risk appetites today.  The curve seems to be flattening in Italy, Spain, and France.  In the US, there are some early signs of leveling off in NY, and now, the number of states with infection rates above 20% is less than 10 from over 40 last week.

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Switzerland Peps Up SMEs

How Switzerland peps up SMEs: Banks are encouraged to extend credit (at 0%). The treasury guarantees the loans. The SNB refinances banks and accepts the guaranteed loans as collateral. Fast and efficient. Eventually, some of these loans will turn into grants of course. But that’s ok; the first-best response to a shock with asymmetric effects does involve transfers if markets are incomplete.

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The ECB’s “mea culpa”

Economists, conservative investors and market observers have been issuing stern warnings for years regarding the severe impact of the current monetary policy direction. In a recent statement, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned of potential side effects and risks to the economy resulting directly from the central bank’s policies.

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FX Daily, October 21: Dollar Soft, but Stage is being Set for Turn Around Tuesday

Overview: The UK's departure from the EU remains up in the air as a new attempt to pass the necessary legislation through Parliament continues today. Many market participants seem to remain optimistic that Prime Minister Johnson's plan will ultimately succeed. After slipping to $1.2875 initially, sterling briefly pushed through $1.30, which had held it back last week.

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Is it platinum’s time to shine?

Even with seasoned precious metals investors, it is often the case that platinum gets overlooked, while gold and silver dominate the conversation over which metal affords the best long-term protection of one’s wealth. Nevertheless, platinum has proved to be an excellent store of value, while it also offers a number of interesting advantages as a long-term investment that could play an important part in a conservative and proactive strategy.

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FX Daily, July 30: Sterling Pounded

Overview:  The prospect of a no-deal Brexit continues to pound sterling lower.  A little more than two months ago, it was testing $1.32.  Two weeks ago it was around $1.25.  Today it traded near $1.2120 before stabilizing.  On the other hand, the 10-year Gilt yield is below 65 bp, a new multiyear low, while the international-laden FTSE 100 is holding its own in the face of heavier equity prices in Europe.

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In defense of Switzerland

An interview with Prof. Angelo M. Codevilla. Following decades of the propagation of a false historical narrative regarding Switzerland’s role during WWII, an entire generation, especially in the West, has grown up with a distorted version of events, based on unfounded and unsubstantiated claims.

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You Can’t Eat Gold, Report 14 Oct 2018

“You can’t eat gold.” The enemies of gold often unleash this little zinger, as if it dismisses the idea of owning gold and indeed the whole gold standard. It is a fact, you cannot eat gold. However, it dismisses nothing. This gives us an idea. Let’s tie three facts together. One, you can’t eat gold. Two, gold is in backwardation in Switzerland. And three, speculation is a bet on the price action.

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Sovereign Money Referendum: A Swiss Awakening to Fractional-Reserve Banking?

On Sunday 10 June 2018, Switzerland’s electorate voted on a referendum calling for the country’s commercial banks to be banned from creating money. In a country world-famous for its banking industry, this was quite an interesting turn of events. Known as the Sovereign Money Initiative or ‘Vollgeld’, the referendum was brought to the Swiss electorate in the form of a ‘Popular Initiative‘.

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Le bilan de la BNS, Une arme de destruction massive

Chers amis lecteurs, voici le drame de la Suisse. Il s’appelle « Politique monétaire non conventionnelle« . Une arme de destruction massive que personne n’ose approcher, ni même aborder! Elle consiste en l’art de se faire un bilan sans bases réelles et avec en contreparties de l’endettement!

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“Vollgeld – Was spricht dagegen? (Sovereign Money—What are the Problems?),” RABE, 2018

Die Vollgeld-Initiative will die Schweizer Geldpolitik komplett umkrempeln. Künftig soll nur noch die Nationalbank Geld herstellen dürfen, sowohl Banknoten und Münzen als auch das elektronische Geld. Die Schweizer Geschäftsbanken wie die UBS oder die CS, die heute 90% des elektronischen Geldes herstellen, soll das künftig verboten sein.

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