Tag Archive: Switzerland
Why the Euro Crisis may last another 15 years
Abstract In the following article we will explain which types of crisis occur in the euro area and will argue that this crisis will last at least another fifteen years. (1) Competitiveness crisis: Before the euro introduction peripheral countries regularly saw their currency depreciate against the German Mark and helped them to increase their competitiveness. …
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SNB meeting on March 15th, 2012: Pure Speculation that SNB raises floor, How to Trade it ?
Between November 2011 and January 2012 mostly left-wing politicians and trade unions wanted the EUR/CHF floor to be risen to 1.30 or 1.40 and uttered their wishes regularly in the Swiss newspapers, triggering many FX traders to speculate on this hike. Recently these demands have become more silent even if some UBS analysts still see the floor to …
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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?
Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction.
Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...
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The new European Save-Havens: Trade SEK/CHF and NOK/CHF
After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.
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EUR/CHF, Market betting on Floor Hike, December 2011
Four Trades For 2012: #2 Sell The Swiss Franc I bought EUR/CHF shortly after the 1.20 peg was introduced and have held it ever since. My only regret has not been trading the range more aggressively. At this point everyone has an opinion of the SNB so I won’t try to convince the bears. Personally, … Continue reading »
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SNB: Lift EUR/CHF floor or not ?
Many participants in the FX markets seem to be sure that the SNB will lift the EUR/CHF flow to 1.25 Here the pros and the cons:
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EUR/CHF Markets Betting on Floor Hike: October 2011
October 2011 Looks Like Market Exercising The Free EUR Put The SNB Bought For It EUR/CHF has been under pressure for the the last two weeks despite Herculean efforts by the EU/IMF to bailout the euro zone. It looks as if the market is taking up the SNB on its offer the buy unlimited … Continue reading »
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Swiss Franc at record highs (May 2011)
May. 27th 2011 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (May 2011) This month, the Swiss Franc touched a record high against not one, but two currencies: the US dollar and the Euro. Having risen by more than 30% against the former and 20% against the latter, the franc might just be the world’s … Continue reading »
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Has the Swiss Franc Reached its Limit? (February 2011)
Feb. 6th 2011 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (February 2011) The second half of 2010 witnessed a 20% rise in the Swiss Franc (against the US Dollar), which experienced an upswing more closely associated with equities than with currencies. It has managed to entrench itself well above parity with the Dollar, and …
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EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): December 2010
Hildebrand Unable To Unload ‘Burden’ Of Record Franc As GDP Seen Slowing Bloomberg article. EUR/CHF down at 1.2595 from early 1.2635. Just reading UBS forex strategists say they are bearish the cross, focusing on 1.2439 ahead of 1.2283. They see resistance at 1.2714. They also forecast a fall in USD/CHF. See break through support at … Continue reading...
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Swiss Franc Surges to Record High (December 2010)
Dec. 29th 2010 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (December 2010) In the last two weeks, the Swiss Franc rose to record highs against not one, not two, but three major currencies: the US Dollar, Euro, and British Pound. The Franc is now entrenched well above parity against the Dollar, and is … Continue...
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Capital controls: The poison cupboard of the SNB
The SNB has already tried a lot to weaken the franc. A (google) translation of a list of capital controls of the Never Mind the Markets blog. The fear of the economic effects Brake by an overvalued franc increases. Massive interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) with € purchases are now ineffective fizzles. Does it …
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Swiss Franc Touches Record High, Nears Parity (September 2010)
Sep. 9th 2010 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (September 2010) In the year-to-date, the Swiss Franc has risen 3% against the Dollar, 15% against the Euro, and more than 5% on a trade-weighted basis. It recently touched a record low against the Euro, and is closing in on parity with the …
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