Tag Archive: S&P 500

Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As “Fire And Fury” Results In “Selling And Fear”

2017-08-10

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained 1.2 percent to 1.1320 per euro...

Read More »

Global Stocks Rise On “Growth Optimism”, Ignore Political Turmoil; Dollar, Oil Creep Higher

2017-07-31

by Tyler Durden

2017-07-31

S&P futures rose 0.1% on the last trading day of the month, trailing European and Asian markets boosted by China’s July Mfg. PMI, which despite declining from from 51.7 to 51.4, and missing expecations of 51.5, saw the construction index rise to its highest level since December 13, sending Chinese iron ore futures surging and … Continue reading »

Read More »

Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term

2017-07-23

by Jan Skoyles

2017-07-23

Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation. Volatility still very high in bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts). Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900. Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualised volatility. Gold much more stable at just 10% annualised volatility.

Read More »

Can We See a Bubble If We’re Inside the Bubble?

2017-06-25

by Charles Hugh Smith

2017-06-25

If you visit San Francisco, you will find it difficult to walk more than a few blocks in central S.F. without encountering a major construction project. It seems that every decrepit low-rise building in the city has been razed and is being replaced with a gleaming new residential tower.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-05-27

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-05-27

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs.

Read More »

Clickbait: Bernanke Terrifies Stock Investors, Again

2017-05-03

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-05-03

Unstable GDP Revised, April 2011 - April 2017

If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it.

Read More »

Earnings per Share: Is It Other Than Madness?

2017-04-16

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-04-16

As earnings season begins for Q1 2017 reports, there isn’t much change in analysts’ estimates for S&P 500 companies for that quarter. The latest figures from S&P shows expected earnings (as reported) of $26.70 in Q1, as compared to $26.87 two weeks ago. That is down only $1 from October, which is actually pretty steady particularly when compared to Q4 2016 estimates that over the same time plummeted from $29.04 to $24.16. At $26.70, that would...

Read More »

The Inverse of Keynes

2017-03-26

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-03-26

With nearly all of the S&P 500 companies having reported their Q4 numbers, we can safely claim that it was a very bad earnings season. It may seem incredulous to categorize the quarter that way given that EPS growth (as reported) was +29%, but even that rate tells us something significant about how there is, actually, a relationship between economy and at least corporate profits.

Read More »

The Market Is Not The Economy, But Earnings Are (Closer)

2017-02-23

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-23

My colleague Joe Calhoun likes to remind me that markets and fundamentals only sound like they should be related, an observation that is a correct one on so many different levels. Stock prices, in general, and GDP growth may seem to warrant some kind of expected correlation, but it has proven quite tenuous at times especially in a 21st century sense.

Read More »

The Psychological Impact Of Loss

2017-01-22

by Lance Roberts

2017-01-22

For the third time in four weeks, the market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Not only is this week shortened by a holiday, it is also coinciding with the annual Billionaire’s convention in Davos, Switzerland and the Presidential inauguration on Friday. Increased volatility over the next couple of days will certainly not be surprising.

Read More »

Gold’s average gains in inauguration years of 15 percent since 1974

2017-01-20

by Mark O'Byrne

2017-01-20

Gold's Gusto, Bullion bulls thrive in most inauguration years

Gold’s average gains in inauguration years of 15% since 1974. First year of new President frequently a time of increased uncertainties and risks. Gold rose 30% in the 12 months after Obama inauguration. Massive political uncertainty. President’s conflict with the CIA. ‘Strong dollar policy’ to end as U.S. has $120 trillion plus debt. Trump inherits Bush and Obama’s humongous debt.

Read More »

Risk Reward Analysis for Financial Markets

2017-01-08

by EconMatters

2017-01-08

We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble right now due to Central Banks...

Read More »

Did President-Elect Trump Just Inadvertently Kill The Golden Goose?

2016-11-19

by Gordon Long

2016-11-19

President-Elect Trump may have just unwittingly sowed the seed of an equity market draw-down which will send even more protesters into the streets of America. Donald Trump’s stated economic policies are clearly pro-growth and if he manages to implement his pro-business, anti-regulation agenda, in the longer term they have the potential to surpass the bold and successful initiatives of Ronald Reagan.

Read More »

Dissection of the Long-Term Asset Bubble

2016-11-12

by Pater Tenebrarum

2016-11-12

The Long Term Outlook for the Asset Bubble Due to strong internals, John Hussman has given the stock market rally since the February low the benefit of the doubt for a while. Lately he has returned to issuing warnings about the market’s potential to deliver a big negative surprise once it runs out of greater fools.

Read More »

L’argent des banques centrales finit dans les paradis fiscaux!

2016-10-24

by Liliane Held-Khawam

2016-10-24

Nous savions que la crise avait laminé les finances des Etats, de l’économie publique et des familles. Jusque là rien de nouveau. Mais en finance, quand quelqu’un perd, il y a en général quelqu’un d’autre qui gagne la même somme et peut-être plus. A moins qu’il ne s’agisse de billets physiques que l’on flambe, c’est comme ça.Nous allons donc nous intéresser aux grands gagnants de la crise financière.

Read More »

Financial Repression Is Now “In Play”

2016-10-20

by Gordon Long

2016-10-20

A FALLING MARKET CANNOT BE ALLOWED – at any cost! The Central Bankers have clearly painted themselves into a corner as a result of their self-inflicted, extended period of “cheap money”. Their policies have fostered malinvestment, excessive leverage and a speculative casino approach to investments. Investors forced to take on excess risk for yield and scalp speculative investment returns, must operate in an unstable financial environment ripe for...

Read More »

What Happens When Rampant Asset Inflation Ends?

2016-10-19

by Charles Hugh Smith

2016-10-19

Yesterday I explained why Revealing the Real Rate of Inflation Would Crash the System. If asset inflation ceases, the net result would be the same: systemic collapse. Why is this so? In effect, central banks and states have masked the devastating stagnation of real income by encouraging households to take on debt to augment declining income and by inflating assets via quantitative easing and lowering interest rates and bond yields to near-zero (or...

Read More »