Tag Archive: S&P 500

Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-12-02

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash.

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The Savings Rate Conundrum

2017-11-08

by Lance Roberts

2017-11-08

Median Disposable Income and Debt Ratio, 1967 - 2015

The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

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Where To Invest When (Almost) Everything’s in a Bubble

2017-11-02

by Charles Hugh Smith

2017-11-02

S&P 500 and US Home Price Index, 1980 - 2017

Many things that are scarce and thus valuable cannot be bought on the global marketplace. Now that almost every asset class is in a bubble, the question of where to invest one's capital has become particularly vexing. The ashes of wealth consumed by the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown are still warm, at least to those who never recovered, and so buying assets at nosebleed valuations in the hopes of earning another 5% aren't very compelling to...

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Key Charts: Gold is Cheap and US Recession May Be Closer Than Think

2017-10-23

by Mark O'Byrne

2017-10-23

Average Annual Gold Price in USD, 1971 - 2017

Every year, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J Valek of investment and asset management company Incrementum put together the report In Gold We Trust – 160-plus pages of charts and thoughts, mostly gold-related, on the state of the world’s finances. There’s so much to look at and consider. It’s a sort of digital equivalent of a coffee-table book.

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Gold Up 74percent and One Of Top Performing Assets Since Last Market Peak 10 Years Ago

2017-10-22

by Jan Skoyles

2017-10-22

10 year anniversary of pre-Global Financial Crisis market peak in S&P 500 on October 9th. Gold up 74% since the last market peak a decade ago; 11% pa in USD, 9.4% pa in EUR and 12.4% pa in GBP. Precious metal has climbed $736/oz on Oct 9th 2007 to $1278.75 ten-years later. S&P 500’s 102% climb is thanks to asset-pumping policies by central banks, rather than value. Gold’s performance is slowly forcing mainstream to re-consider gold.

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Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

2017-10-07

by Tyler Durden

2017-10-07

World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red - as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs - ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here). U.S. jobs report will also be...

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Dollar & Stocks Jump; Bonds & Bullion Dump In Lowest Volatility September Ever

2017-10-05

by Tyler Durden

2017-10-05

It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown - the 4th-longest streak since 1928... So everything is awesome...BUT...US 'hard' economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009...Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster...Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow - the longest streak since Q3 1997.

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4 Reasons Why “Gold Has Entered A New Bull Market” – Schroders

2017-09-05

by Jan Skoyles

2017-09-05

Gold price and S&P500 Performance, 1961 - 2017

4 reasons why “gold has entered a new bull market” – Schroders. Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders. Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX. History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart). You should buy insurance when insurers don’t believe that the “risk event” will happen. Very high Chinese gold demand,...

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S&P 500 Index: A Single Day Beats the Entire Week!

2017-09-05

by Dimitri Speck

2017-09-05

Many market participants believe simple phenomena in the stock market are purely random events and cannot recur consistently. Indeed, there is probably no stock market “rule” that will remain valid forever. However, there continue to be certain statistical phenomena in the stock market – even quite simple ones – that have shown a tendency to persist for very long time periods.

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Buy Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin – “Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War”

2017-08-18

by Mark O'Byrne

2017-08-18

Global Asset Class Volatility, 1900 - 2017

Don't let "traditional biases" stop you from diversifying into gold - Dalio on Linkedin. “Risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in” warns founder of world's largest hedge fund. Geo-political risk from North Korea & "risk of hellacious war". Risk that U.S. debt ceiling not raised; technical US default. Safe haven gold likely to benefit by more than dollar, treasuries.

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“Under Any Analysis, It’s Insanity”: What War With North Korea Could Look Like

2017-08-14

by Tyler Durden

2017-08-14

Now that the possibility of a war between the US and North Korea seems just one harshly worded tweet away, and the window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution, as well as for the US stopping Kim Jong-Un from obtaining a nuclear-armed ICBM closing fast, analysts have started to analyze President Trump’s military options, what a war between the US and North Korea would look like, and what the global economic consequences would be.

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SNB Balance Sheet, Markets and Economy: As Good As It Gets?

2017-08-10

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-08-10

Late 2014/early 2015 will perhaps be the closest to a real recovery from the Great “Recession” we shall see in this cycle. Q1 2015 marked the peak year over year growth rate of GDP in this recovery at 3.76%. That rate compares quite unfavorably with even the feeble post dot com crash recovery high of 4.41% in Q1 2004.

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Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As “Fire And Fury” Results In “Selling And Fear”

2017-08-10

by Tyler Durden

2017-08-10

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained 1.2 percent to 1.1320 per euro...

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Global Stocks Rise On “Growth Optimism”, Ignore Political Turmoil; Dollar, Oil Creep Higher

2017-07-31

by Tyler Durden

2017-07-31

S&P futures rose 0.1% on the last trading day of the month, trailing European and Asian markets boosted by China’s July Mfg. PMI, which despite declining from from 51.7 to 51.4, and missing expecations of 51.5, saw the construction index rise to its highest level since December 13, sending Chinese iron ore futures surging and … Continue reading »

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Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term

2017-07-23

by Jan Skoyles

2017-07-23

Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation. Volatility still very high in bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts). Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900. Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualised volatility. Gold much more stable at just 10% annualised volatility.

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Can We See a Bubble If We’re Inside the Bubble?

2017-06-25

by Charles Hugh Smith

2017-06-25

If you visit San Francisco, you will find it difficult to walk more than a few blocks in central S.F. without encountering a major construction project. It seems that every decrepit low-rise building in the city has been razed and is being replaced with a gleaming new residential tower.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-05-27

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-05-27

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs.

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Clickbait: Bernanke Terrifies Stock Investors, Again

2017-05-03

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-05-03

Unstable GDP Revised, April 2011 - April 2017

If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it.

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Earnings per Share: Is It Other Than Madness?

2017-04-16

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-04-16

As earnings season begins for Q1 2017 reports, there isn’t much change in analysts’ estimates for S&P 500 companies for that quarter. The latest figures from S&P shows expected earnings (as reported) of $26.70 in Q1, as compared to $26.87 two weeks ago. That is down only $1 from October, which is actually pretty steady particularly when compared to Q4 2016 estimates that over the same time plummeted from $29.04 to $24.16. At $26.70, that would...

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The Inverse of Keynes

2017-03-26

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-03-26

With nearly all of the S&P 500 companies having reported their Q4 numbers, we can safely claim that it was a very bad earnings season. It may seem incredulous to categorize the quarter that way given that EPS growth (as reported) was +29%, but even that rate tells us something significant about how there is, actually, a relationship between economy and at least corporate profits.

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