Tag Archive: PMI

Industrial production: The Chinese Appear To Be Rushed

2018-01-04

All China's Dollars, Aug 2016 - Jan 2018

While the Western world was off for Christmas and New Year’s, the Chinese appeared to have taken advantage of what was a pretty clear buildup of “dollars” in Hong Kong. Going back to early November, HKD had resumed its downward trend indicative of (strained) funding moving again in that direction (if it was more normal funding, HKD wouldn’t move let alone as much as it has). China’s currency, however, was curiously restrained during that...

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Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

2017-12-13

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-12-13

China Manufacturing PMI, May 2007 - Nov 2017

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart here from 54.3 the month prior to 54.8 last month.

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Bonds And Soft Chinese Data

2017-11-04

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-11-04

Back in June, China’s federal bond yield curve inverted. Ahead of mid-year bank checks, short-term govvies sold off as longer bonds continued to be bought. It was for some a rotation, for others a reflection of money rates threatening to spiral out of control. On June 19, for example, the 6-month federal security yielded 3.87% compared to a yield of 3.525% for the 10-year.

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Noisy PMI’s In China

2017-10-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-10-14

China Manufacturing PMI, March 2007 - Sep 2017

In the US our economic data for a few months at least will be on shaky ground due to the lingering economic impacts of severe hurricanes. In China, the potential for irregularity is perhaps as great, though it has nothing to do with the weather. In a little over a week, Communist Party officials will gather for their 19th Party Congress.

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Global PMI Roundup; August 2017

2017-09-10

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-09-10

The first few days of any calendar month are now flooded with PMI data. Mostly due to Markit’s ongoing and increasing partnerships, we now have access to economic or business sentiment from and for almost anywhere in the world. It isn’t clear, however, if that is a good or useful development. For example, we can see quite plainly that there is a whole bunch of trouble brewing in Kenya. The Stanbic Bank/Markit Kenya PMI fell to a record low 42.0 in...

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Global Manufacturing PMI’s, Inflation and CPI: Some Global Odd & Ends

2017-07-09

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-07-09

When it comes to central bank experimentation, Japan is always at the forefront. If something new is being done, Bank of Japan is where it happens. In May for the first time in human history, that central bank’s balance sheet passed the half quadrillion mark.

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Oil Prices and Manufacturing PMI: No Backing Sentiment

2017-07-04

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-07-04

When the price of oil first collapsed at the end of 2014, it was characterized widely as a “supply glut.” It wasn’t something to be concerned about because it was believed attributable to success, and American success no less. Lower oil prices would be another benefit to consumers on top of the “best jobs market in decades.”

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Dollars And Sent(iment)s

2017-06-09

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-06-09

ISM Manufacturing PMI, July 2014 - May 2017

Both US manufacturing PMI’s underwhelmed just as those from China did. The IHS Markit Index was lower than the flash reading and the lowest level since last September. For May 2017, it registered 52.7, down from 52.8 in April and a high of 55.0 in January. Just by description alone you can appreciate exactly what pattern that fits. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was slightly higher in May than April, 54.9 versus 54.8, but still down from a February peak...

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Pay No Attention To 50

2017-06-08

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-06-08

China NBS Manufacturing PMI, May 2007 - May 2017

China’s PMI’s were uniformly disappointing with respect to what Moody’s was on about last week. Chinese authorities expended great effort and resources to get the economy moving forward again after several years of “dollar”-driven deceleration. here was a massive “stimulus” spending program where State-owned FAI expenditures of about 2% of GDP were elicited to make up for Private FAI that at one point last year was actually contracting.

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Suddenly Impatient Sentiment

2017-05-28

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-05-28

Fed Fifth District Survey Of Manufacturing, January 2014 - May 2017

Two more manufacturing surveys suggest sharp deceleration in momentum, or, more specifically, the momentum of sentiment (if there is such a thing). The Federal Reserve’s 5th District Survey of Manufacturing (Richmond branch) dropped to barely positive, calculated to be just 1.0 in May following 20.0 in April and 22.0 in March.

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China: Blatant Similarities

2017-05-07

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-05-07

China NBS Manufacturing PMI, April 2007 - April 2017

Declines in several of the world’s PMI’s in April have furthered doubts about the global “reflation.” But while many disappointed, some sharply, it isn’t just this one month that has sown them. In China, for example, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment indices declined to 6-month lows.

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European Stocks Greet The New Year By Rising To One Year Highs; Euro Slides

2017-01-04

by Tyler Durden

2017-01-04

While most of the world is enjoying it last day off from the 2017 holiday transition, with Asia's major markets closed for the New Year holiday, along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the US and Canada across the Atlantic, European stocks climbed to their highest levels in over a year on Monday after the Markit PMI survey showed manufacturing production in the Eurozone rose to the highest level since April 2011.

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices (outdated)

Manufacturing PMIs : most leading and important economic indicators.

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Swiss industrial production unimpressed by global slowing

2013-07-08

by George Dorgan

2013-07-08

Swiss industrial production rose by 3% in the first quarter 2013 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Turnover rose by 3.7%. Details

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Swiss, Norwegian and UK PMI Lead European Recovery

2013-06-03

by George Dorgan

2013-06-03

Eurozone Switzerland Norway France Italy Spain Germany UK

The Swiss, Norway, the UK and Germans are in the lead, while, despite improvements, France, Italy and Spain are still lagging (details).

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices

2013-04-11

by George Dorgan

2013-04-11

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. August 2013 Update Emerging markets: Years of strong increases in wages combined with tapering fears have taken its toll: Higher costs and lower investment capital available. EM Companies have issues in coping with developed economies. Some of them …

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The “Sell in May, Come Back in October” Effect and the 19 Fortune-Tellers of the FOMC

2013-04-03

by George Dorgan

2013-04-03

The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and April, this year additionally fueled by "unlimited" quantitative easing, weaker gas prices and higher competitiveness thanks to a stronger Chinese yuan and weaker Asian economies. Update 2013: The Case-Shiller index continued to climb in April 2013; it became clear that this year the "Sell in May" …

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Swiss Economic Indicators, March 2013

2013-03-27

by George Dorgan

2013-03-27

GDP KOF Wages CPI PPI Trade Balance Consumption SECO Industrial Production Construction

Switzerland continues to see a robust economy, even if the leading KOF indicator fell to 0.99 after highs of 1.68 in September. On other side, real and nominal wages continue to increase. As opposed to the KOF value, the UBS consumption indicator is rising. This shows that the internal economy is able to balance … Continue...

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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