Tag Archive: OIL

FX Weekly Preview: Macro Considerations for the Capital Markets

The triumphalism that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall nearly three decades ago has evaporated.  The Great Financial Crisis and inexorable widening of income and wealth inequalities within countries undermined claims of moral and economic superiority.  Liberal democracies are fighting a rearguard action and the rise of illiberal regimes. 

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FX Weekly Preview: Trade and Data Driving Markets

US President Trump is intent on disrupting the post-WWII arrangement that prioritized and ideological conflict over economic rivalries. Last week, it was reported that Trump told his counterparts at the G7 summit that NATO was as bad as NAFTA. NATO's annual meeting is July 12.

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FX Daily, June 28: US Dollar Remains Firm, Sends Yuan, Rupee, Sterling and Kiwi to New 2018 Lows

The US dollar is consolidating its gains against most of the major currencies, but the underlying strength remains evident. Several major and emerging market currencies are at new lows for the year, including sterling and the New Zealand dollar, but also the yuan, rupee, and the rupiah.

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FX Weekly Preview Warning: Treacherous Week Ahead

All three of the major central banks met last week and confirmed that monetary policy would continue to diverge for at least another year. The clarity of the trajectory of monetary policy reduces the impact of high-frequency economic data.

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FX Daily, June 5: Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails

The British pound is benefiting from the stronger than expected service and composite PMI readings, which among other things are serving as a distraction from the government's seemingly tortured approach to Brexit and the sales of part of its stake in RBS for a GBP2 bln loss.  Financials are a drag on the FTSE 100 today (~-0.5% while other major bourses are higher).

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What Happened Monday?

Italian politics dominated Monday's activity. Initially, the euro reacted positively in Asia to news that the Italian President had blocked the proposed finance minister. A technocrat government would be appointed to prepare for new elections.

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FX Daily, May 25: US Dollar Loses Momentum Ahead of the Weekend

The euro and sterling were sold through yesterday's lows in Asia, but rebounded in Europe, with the help of mildly constructive data in the form of the German IFO and details of UK Q1 GDP. The IFO climate measure matched the April reading and thereby snapped a five-month slide. The expectations component slipped, but the current assessment improved.

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FX Daily, May 18: EUR/CHF Continues the Collapse

The US dollar is mostly firmer. US yields have stabilized. Asian equities were mostly higher, while European bourses are struggling. Oil prices are steady. There have been a number of sustained trends in the markets that we have been monitoring. The euro, for example, has fallen each day this week. It recorded its low for the year on Wednesday near $1.1765.

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Oil: Supply and Demand Drivers

Oil prices have recovered more than 50% of the decline since the mid-September peak. The next retracement objectives are found near $82 a barrel for Brent and $76.5 for WTI basis the continuation futures contract. The immediate consideration is that supplies have tightened.

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FX Daily, April 12: Geopolitics Overshadow the Fed, Greenback Steadies

The US dollar steadied at lower levels, while equities eased as investors remain focused on the preparations to strike Syria and still tense rhetoric on trade. Reports indicate that the US and France have moved warships into the area and the UK has moved submarines within striking distance as well.

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US Industry Experiences The Full 2014 Again in February

In February 2018, it was like old times for the US industrial sectors. Prior to the 2015-16 downturn, the otherwise moribund economy did produce two genuine booms. The first in the auto sector, the other in energy. Without them, who knows what the no-recovery recovery would have looked like. They were for the longest time the only bright spots.

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FX Daily, January 17: Dollar Stabilizes After Marginal New Lows

After a shallow bounce in Asia and Europe yesterday, the dollar slipped lower in North American yesterday. Asia was happy to extend those dollar losses, and the greenback was pushed to marginal new lower in Asia, but has come back in the European session. The next result is a choppy but flattish consolidation compared with last week's closing prices.

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The Conspicuous Rush To Import

According to the Census Bureau, US companies have been importing foreign goods at a relentless pace. In estimates released last week, seasonally-adjusted US imports jumped to $204 billion in November 2017. That’s a record high finally surpassing the $200 billion mark for the first time, as well as the peaks for both 2014 and 2007.

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FX Daily, January 10: Yen Short Squeeze Extended

Sparked by fears that the BOJ took a step toward the monetary exit by reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying, there is an apparent scramble to cover previously sold yen positions. The dollar finished last week near JPY113.00. It fell to about JPY112.35 yesterday, near the 50% retracement of the greenback's bounce from the late-November lows near JPY110.85.

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Petro-Yuan? Really?

The launch of futures on Bitcoins was rushed so quickly through the regulatory channels that the anticipation was short-lived. And as the recent price action amply demonstrates, the existence of a derivative market has not tamed the digital token's volatility. It is still the early days, but Bitcoin futures do not look likely to change the world.

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The Economy Likes Its IP Less Lumpy

Industrial Production rose 3.4% year-over-year in November 2017, the highest growth rate in exactly three years. The increase was boosted by the aftermath of Harvey and Irma, leaving more doubt than optimism for where US industry is in 2017. For one thing, of that 3.4% growth rate, more than two-thirds was attributable to just two months.

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FX Daily, December 12: UK Front and Center, but Sterling is Laggard in Today’s Move Against the Dollar

The US dollar is trading with a lower bias against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The upside surprise in Sweden's inflation is helped the krona recover from its recent slide. It is the strongest of the majors, gaining 1.1% against the dollar and nearly as much against the euro, which is in a third of a cent range below $1.18.

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Industrial Production Still Reflating

Industrial Production benefited from a hurricane rebound in October 2017, rising 2.9% above October 2016. That is the highest growth rate in nearly three years going back to January 2015. With IP lagging behind the rest of the manufacturing turnaround, this may be the best growth rate the sector will experience. Production overall was still contracting all the way to November 2016, providing the index favorable base comparisons that won’t last past...

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Globally Synchronized Downside Risks

Oil prices were riding high after several weeks of steady, significant gains. It’s never really clear what it is that might actually move markets in the short run, whether for crude it was Saudi Arabia’s escalating activities or other geopolitical concerns. Behind those, the idea of “globally synchronized growth” that is supposedly occurring for the first time since before the Great “Recession” while it may not have pushed oil investors to buy...

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FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch of the Week’s Big Events

Busiest week of Q4. Fed, BOJ, and BOE, only the last is expected to change policy. Flash EMU CPI and US jobs. Positive developments in Italy, less so in Spain.

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