Tag Archive: OIL

OPEC+ Surprises while Manufacturing Remains Challenged

2023-04-03

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2023-04-03

Overview: News of OPEC+ unexpected output cuts saw May WTI gap sharply higher and helped lift bond yields. May WTI settled near three-week highs before the weekend near $75.65 and opened today near $80. It reached almost $81.70 before stabilizing and is straddling the $80 area before the North American session. The high for the year was set in the second half of January around $83. Benchmark 10-year yields are up 2-5 bp points. The 10-year US...

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US Dollar Comes Back Better Bid

2023-02-15

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2023-02-15

Overview: Although the US January CPI was in line with expectations, the year-over-year rate was a little firmer than expected. Still, the measure that Fed Chair Powell has underscored, core services, excluding shelter, moderated with a 0.3% month-over-month gain. US rates shot up and this lent the dollar support, while weighing on equities and risk sentiment. The US two-year note yield rose to almost 4.64% yesterday, the highest in three months....

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A Day of Surprises

2023-02-10

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2023-02-10

(I am on a business trip and did not intend to post any analysis today. However, there have been a number of unexpected developments that warrant some commentary. Thanks for bearing with me.) Japanese press reports that the BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya turned down the opportunity to become the next BOJ governor. Instead, next week, former BOJ board member Kazuo Ueda will be nominated. The market reacted dramatically, taking the yen sharply higher...

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Euro Pokes Above $1.09. Will it be Sustained?

2023-01-23

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2023-01-23

Overview: The Lunar New Year holiday has shut many centers in Asia until the middle of the week, though China's mainland is on holiday all week. The signaling of a downshift in the pace of Fed tightening by some notable hawks helped lift risk appetites ahead of the weekend and saw the S&P 500 snap a four-day decline.

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Chinese Stocks Extend Rally Even Though Covid Infections Appear to be Spreading

2022-12-09

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2022-12-09

Overview: The easing of vaccination, quarantine, and some travel protocols related to Covid in China (and Hong Kong) continues to draw funds back into Chinese stocks, wherever they trade. The Hang Seng rose 2.3% today to close the week with a nearly 6.6% advance. The index of mainland companies that trade there rose 2.5% on the day for a7.3% weekly gain. The CSI 300 of mainland shares rose 1% today and almost 3.3% for the week. Japan’s 1% gain...

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Attention turns to US Jobs while the Yen’s Surge Continues

2022-12-02

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2022-12-02

Overview:  There have been significant moves in the capital markets this week and participants are turning cautious ahead of the US employment report. After the US equity market rally stalled yesterday, nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses fell today. The strength of the yen (~3.8% this week) has weighed on Japanese equities (Nikkei -1.8% this week) and spurred the BOJ to buy ETFs today for the first time in five months. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is...

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Calm Markets with Japan on Holiday Today and the US Tomorrow

2022-11-23

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2022-11-23

Overview: The capital markets are quiet today with Japan on holiday and the US on holiday tomorrow. Asia Pacific equities were mostly firmer after yesterday’s rally on Wall Street. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is about 0.25% higher and at its best level in three months. US futures are steady to slightly higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed. The dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, with Scandis leading the way. Sweden is...

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Poor Chinese and Japanese Data Are Not Deterring Euphoria

2022-11-15

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2022-11-15

Overview: Recent developments have spurred a euphoria that is exciting the animal spirits. Greater confidence that US inflation has peaked, and new initiatives from China, and yesterday’s Biden-Xi meeting are all feeding this narrative. The dollar, which slumped last week, is sliding anew today. Strategically, we anticipated the turn, but tactically, we thought last week’s move had stretched the near-term technical condition.  The dollar is...

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Currency and Bond Markets Challenge the Bank of Japan

2022-10-19

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2022-10-19

Asia Pacific equities were mixed as the China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korean markets, among the large markets were unable to gain in the wake of a solid performance in the US. Europe is also struggling to maintain the upside momentum that has lifted the Stoxx 600 for the past four sessions.

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Surging Energy Prices Pushing Europe Closer to Recession

2022-08-23

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2022-08-23

The poor eurozone PMI underscores likely recession and weighs on the single currency, which was sold to a new 20-year low.  Rather than a "Turn Around Tuesday"  a broadly consolidative session is unfolding. Asian and European equities are weaker, while US futures are positive but little changed.  Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly firmer and the premium offered by Europe's periphery is edging higher.  The US 10-year is little changed near...

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US Dollar Soft while Consolidating Yesterday’s Drop

2022-08-11

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2022-08-11

Overview: The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses but is still trading with a heavier bias against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies. The US 10-year yield is soft below 2.77%, while European yields are mostly 2-4 bp higher.

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Update The Conflict of Interest Rate(s)

2022-06-13

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2022-06-13

What changed? For over a month, the Treasury market had the Fed and its rate hiking figured out. Rising recession risks had been confirmed by almost every piece of incoming data, including, importantly, labor data.

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Moderating Labor Market is what the Fed Wants

2022-06-03

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2022-06-03

Overview: For the large rally in US stocks yesterday and the sell-off in the dollar, US rates were surprisingly little changed. This set the tone for today's action, ahead of the US employment data. Asia Pacific equities moved higher and Europe’s Stoxx 600 has edged up to extend yesterday’s rise. The 10-year US Treasury yield is little changed, hovering around 2.91%. European benchmark yields are 1-3 bp higher.

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‘Unconscionably Excessive’ Denial

2022-05-30

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2022-05-30

What would “unconscionably excessive” even look, legally speaking? More to the issue, who gets to decide what constitutes “excessive?”

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Is It Being Demanded?

2022-05-29

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2022-05-29

Shipping container rates have been dropping since early March – right around the time when we had just experienced our “collateral days” and then stood by to witness chaotic financial fireworks, inversions, the whole thing.

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Crude Contradictions Therefore Uncertainty And Big Volatility

2022-05-18

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2022-05-18

This one took some real, well, talent. It was late morning on April 11, the crude oil market was in some distress. The price was falling faster, already down sharply over just the preceding two weeks. Going from $115 per barrel to suddenly less than $95, there was some real fear there.But what really caught my attention was the flattening WTI futures curve.

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Not Good Goods

2022-04-24

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2022-04-24

The goods economy in the United States is – maybe was – the lone economic bright spot. That in and of itself should’ve provoked more caution, instead there was the red-hot recovery to sell under the cover of supply shock pricing changes. The sheer spending on goods, and how they arrived, each unabashedly artificial from the get-go.

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Gold Price Today – Gareth Soloway

2022-03-24

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2022-03-24

Dave Russell of GoldCore TV welcomes back Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks.com where we ask if the bull market for stocks is back and if $2,500 on gold is still on the cards for 2022?

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Vladimir Nogoodnik Roils Markets

2022-03-07

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2022-03-07

Overview:  The economic disruption seen since the US warning of an imminent Russian attack on February 11 continue to ripple through the capital and commodity markets.  Equities are being slammed.  Most Asia Pacific bourses were off 2-3% today. Europe's Stoxx 600 gapped lower ad has approached February 2021 levels, orr about 2.6% today.  US futures are around 1.5% lower.

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FX Daily, January 26: Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada Meet as Risk Appetites Stabilize

2022-01-26

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2022-01-26

After a slow and mixed start in Asia, where Australia and India are on holiday, equity markets have turned higher.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is up around 1.9% near midday in Europe, which if sustained would be the biggest gain of the year.  US futures are snapping backing too, with the S&P 500 popping more than  1% and NASDAQ by 2%. 

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