Tag Archive: OIL

Jobs (US) and Inflation (EMU) Highlight the Week Ahead

The new covid variant and quick imposition of travel restrictions on several countries in southern Africa have injected a new dynamic into the mix.

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Tech Sell-Off Continues

Overview:  The markets are unsettled.  Bond yields have jumped, tech stocks are leading an equity slump, and yesterday's crude oil bounce reversed.  Gold, which peaked last week near $1877, has been dumped to around $1793.  The tech sell-off in the US carried into the Asia Pacific session, and Hong Kong led most markets lower.  The local holiday let Japanese markets off unscathed, though the Nikkei futures are off about 0.4%.  Australia and India...

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European Gas Jumps, while the Euro and Yen Slump

Overview: The prospects that the 6.2% CPI will prompt the Fed to move quicker continue to underpin the dollar.  The euro fell to about $1.1265, its lowest level since last September, and the Japanese yen slumped to a fresh four-year low.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index tumbled 1% yesterday, the largest decline since February.  A more stable tone is evident in Europe, as the euro has recovered above $1.13, and the JP Morgan Index is...

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Markets Await Fresh Developments

Overview: Last week's bond market rally has stalled.  Benchmark 10-year yields are up 1-3 bp in Europe, and the three bp increase in the US puts the yield slightly below 1.50%.  Equities were mixed in the Asia Pacific region. 

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And the Dollar Bounces Back, While BOE is in Focus

Overview:  The Federal Reserve announced tapering and, like the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier in the week, did not validate expectations for an aggressive rate hike.  Now the focus is on the Bank of England, where several officials seemed to goad the market into lifting short-term rates. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ rallied to new record highs yesterday and helped raise global shares today.  Among the large markets in the Asia Pacific region,...

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Far Longer And Deeper Than Just The Past Few Months

Hurricane Ida swept up the Gulf of Mexico and slammed into the Louisiana coastline on August 29. The storm would continue to wreak havoc even as it weakened the further inland it traversed. By September 1 and 2, the system was still causing damage and disruption into the Northeast of the United States.

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FX Daily, May 19: Now What Does Bitcoin say About the Dollar and the US?

A setback in commodities and technology are roiling equity markets today. The inability of US equities to sustain yesterday's rally provided an initial headwind to trading in the Asia Pacific region today. Hong Kong and South Korea markets were closed for holidays, but most of the bourses fell, led by Australia, where the market tumbled nearly 2%, the most in almost three months as the drop in mining and energy took a toll.

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FX Daily, March 11: Risk Extends Gains Ahead of the ECB

Overview: Even though the NASDAQ closed lower yesterday and the reception of the 10-year Treasury auction did not excite, market participants are growing more confident.  Led by China, the major markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied.  The Shanghai Composite's 2.35% gain not only snaps a five-session slide but is the largest rally since last October.

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FX Daily, February 15: Sterling Continues to Run Higher and US Winter Storm Gives Oil Another Boost

US and Greater Chinese markets are closed today, but the markets are moving. Equities are bid. The Nikkei led the Asia Pacific region with a 2% gain and pushed above 30000 for the first time since 1990.

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FX Daily, February 10: China’s Expansion Does not Prevent Deflation

Despite a soft close in US indices yesterday, global shares are on the march again today.  Led by China and Hong Kong, most large markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced today.  Officials gave approval for a new game from Tencent, which helped lift the Hang Seng.

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FX Daily, February 8: Limited Follow-Through Dollar Selling to Start the Week

Overview: The US dollar has drifted higher against the major currencies and most of the freely accessible emerging market currencies, paring the losses seen before the weekend in response to the disappointing employment report. Easing pressure from the pandemic as the surge in cases after the holidays may also be encouraging risk-taking to extend the global equity rally.

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FX Daily, February 4: Negative Rates and the Bank of England: Having Your Cake and Eating it Too

Overview:  The euro has been sold through $1.20 for the first time since December 1 and has now given back roughly half of the gains scored from the US election (~$1.16) to the early January high (~$.1.2350).  More broadly, the greenback is bid against most of the major currencies, with the Australian dollar more resilient after reported record iron ore exports and all but a handful of emerging market currencies. 

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FX Daily, January 6: High Drama Weighs on the Greenback and Lifts Yields

Overview:  One of the two Georgia Senate contests remains too close to call, but the market appears to be pricing in a Democrat sweep.  The 10-year yield has punched above 1% but has offered the greenback little support.  Yesterday, the dollar-bloc currencies rose to highs since early Q2 2018 and are extending those gains today. 

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Oil market outlook: Land in sight but rough seas ahead

In November, new vaccines showed great promise in fighting Covid-19, and the exhilaration was clear in markets around the world. However, the enthusiasm was not sustained. Many experts and political leaders rushed to warn that while a vaccine could mean the end of the health crisis, the economy – and oil markets in particular – are still in for a rough ride.

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FX Daily. October 29: Markets Continue to Struggle

The spreading virus that is shutting down large parts of Europe, while the US is reluctant to return to lockdowns and refuses to have a nationwide requirement for masks in public hit risk assets yesterday.  The S&P posted its largest decline in four-months yesterday (~3.5%), and the selling carried into the Asia Pacific region.

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FX Daily, September 30: Nervous Calm

Quarter and month-end considerations could be overwhelming other factors today.  Turnaround Tuesday saw early gains in US equities fade.  Asia Pacific shares were mixed, with the Nikkei (-1.5%) and Australia (-2.3%) bear the brunt of the selling, while China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India rose.

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Inflation Karma

There is no oil in the CPI’s consumer basket, yet oil prices largely determine the rate by which overall consumer prices are increasing (or not). WTI sets the baseline which then becomes the price of motor fuel (gasoline) becoming the energy segment. As energy goes, so do headline CPI measurements.

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Bottleneck In Japanese

Japan’s yen is backward, at least so far as its trading direction may be concerned. This is all the more confusing especially over the past few months when this rising yen has actually been aiding the dollar crash narrative while in reality moving the opposite way from how the dollar system would be behaving if it was really happening.

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FX Daily, August 26: Hurricane Laura Lifts Oil Prices

A consolidative tone has emerged after US equity benchmarks reached new highs yesterday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index had reached seven-month highs on Tuesday, but Japan, China, and Australian stocks saw modest profit-taking today. European shares are recouping yesterday's minor loss, and US shares are flat. 

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FX Daily, July 13: Risk Appetites Firm, but the Greenback is Mixed

Equities began the week on a firm note in the Asia Pacific region.  The Nikkei gained more than 2%, and the profit-taking seen in China ahead of the weekend was a one-day phenomenon.  The Shanghai Composite rose 1.8%, and the Shenzhen Composite surged 3.5%.  Taiwan and South Korea markets also rallied more than 1%.

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