Tag Archive: OIL

FX Daily, August 11: Sterling Struggles to Find a Bid, While RBNZ Can’t Knock Kiwi Down

Once again, EUR/CHF reverses in the middle of the week. A part from technical reasons, the weak French CPI (+0.4% YoY) and Italian CPI (-0.2% YoY) exercised downwards pressure on the euro. The US dollar has found steadier footing today after trading heavily yesterday. There are two main themes. The first is sterling’s heavy tone.

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No Big Thoughts, but Several Smaller Observations

Notable that as the CRB Index moves lower, MSCI emerging market equities have done well. European banks are retreating after the stress test results. Tokyo elected its first women governor as this seem to be in part a sign of protest against Abe.

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Oil and Economy Pull the Canadian Dollar Lower

The decline in oil prices is a factor weighing on the Canadian dollar. US premium over Canada is rising, and may continue as the economies diverge. The general risk appetite is supportive for the Canadian dollar.

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Great Graphic: OIl Breaks Down Further

With today's losses the Sept contract has retraced 50% of this year's rally. The oil glut has partly been transformed into a gasoline glut. US rig count is rising and output has increased two weeks in a row.

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Great Graphic: Oil Flirts with Four-Month Uptrend

The broader technical tone has weakened.  The RSI has turned lower.  The MACDs are also turning lower with a bearish divergence.  The five-day moving average may move below the 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-April later this week....

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Can OPEC Surprise?

OPEC ministers meet in Vienna tomorrow. Expectations could hardly be lower.  Attempts to agree on an output freeze were stymied by the Saudi’s insistence that is rival Iran participates as well.  Iran cannot agree to limit its production yet, or it would have sacrificed (or postponed) it nuclear program for nought.   Many observers have announced …

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FX Daily, April 18: Doha Failure Sets Tone

Oil producers failed to reach an agreement yesterday at the meeting in Doha.  That is the main spur to today’s activity.  It is not that the outcome was a surprise.  One newswire poll found around half of the respondents thought an agreement was elusive.   Although not oil experts by any stretch, we too thought political … Continue reading...

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Expectation for Doha may be Inflated

The weekend meeting between many OPEC and non-OPEC producers has helped spur the recent gains in the price of oil.  We are concerned that market may be getting ahead of itself. First, the freeze in output that had previously been agreed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and a few other countries was conditional on participation by … Continue reading...

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Great Graphic: Bottom Building on CRB Commodity Index?

Marc Chandler shows that after the commodity currency Canadian Dollar, also the CRB Commodity index could have found a bottom. See here his Great Graphic on the CAD bottom buildung. See also the CAD resilience despite falling oil prices.

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Is the Oil Correction Over?

The price of oil is seeing its biggest decline today since February 23.   The ostensible reason is that Iran once again reiterated it would only consider capping its output after it reached four million barrels a day, its pre-sanction output.  ...

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The SNB and the Russia/oil connection

A quick post to collate a few side theories on the reasons, justifications and consequences of the SNB move. Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon is first to point out that the euro floor/chf celing was leaving an open door to safe haven flows from Russia by ...

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Seasonal Factors on Oil

Evidence from simple tests supports perhaps some belief that crude oil tends to have strong and weak months of the year, Q4 is often the weakest quarter and Q1 and Q2 the best.

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Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now

As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could … Continue reading »

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