Tag Archive: newslettersent

Our “Gaslight” Economy

2016-12-07

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2016-12-07

Civilian Unemployment Rate
If you don't like what these charts are saying, please notify The Washington Post to add the St. Louis Federal Reserve to its list of Russian propaganda sites. Yesterday I described our gaslight financial system. Today we'll look at our gaslight economy. Correspondent Jason H. alerted me to the work of author Thomas Sheridan ( Puzzling People: The Labyrinth of the Psychopath), who claims to have coined the term gaslighting.

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Greek Bonds may Soon be Included in ECB Purchases

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

The ECB accepts Greek bonds as collateral but does not include them in its asset purchases. A new staff-level agreement by the end of the year could change that. Finance ministers imply that Greece's debt is sustainable, but the IMF disagrees.

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Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban – Part V

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Modi Prime Minester of India
India’s Prime Minister announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes will no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, and Part-IV, which provide updates on the rapidly encroaching police state

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Switzerland Consumer Price Index in November 2016: -0.3 percent against 2015, -0.2 percent against last month

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Swiss consumer price inflation remain the lowest in comparison with different countries in the euro zone and the United States. Consumer prices in the U.S. are driven by rising health care costs and asset price inflation in shelter. In Europe, we see the opposite phenomenon: Rents in Italy or Spain are steady or falling. In Germany and Switzerland rent control prevents that asset price inflation moves into consumer prices. In Switzerland, more and...

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FX Daily, December 06: You Can Almost Hear a Pin Drop

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

FX Performance, December 06 2016 Movers and Shakers
The foreign exchange market is quiet. Ranges are narrow, with the US dollar mostly consolidating against the major currencies. Given the push lower yesterday, the shallowness of its recovery warns of the greenback's downside correction after strong gains last month may not be complete.

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Dang It! Gold was Supposed to Go Up! Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Gold and Scales
Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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US True Money Supply Growth Jumps, Part 1: A Shift in Liabilities

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

TMS-2 and Total Loans and Leases YoY change
The growth rates of various “Austrian” measures of the US money supply (such as TMS-2 and money AMS) have accelerated significantly in recent months. That is quite surprising, as the Fed hasn’t been engaged in QE for quite some time and year-on-year growth in commercial bank credit has actually slowed down rather than accelerating of late. The only exception to this is mortgage lending growth – at least until recently. Growth in mortgage loans is...

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Yen and US Yields

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Dollar-yen has been driven by the sharp rise in US bond yields. There are some (dollar) bearish divergences in the JPY/USD technicals. US 10-year yields may also be putting in a near-term top.

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Great Graphic: Dollar Index Update

2016-12-05

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2016-12-05

The Dollar Index's technical tone has deteriorated. It is corresponding to the easing of US rates and a narrowing differential. The risk is that the correction can continue in the coming days.

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FX Daily, December 05: Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Still Vulnerable to Corrective Pressures

2016-12-05

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2016-12-05

FX Performance, December 05 2016 Movers and Shakers
After softening ahead of the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a firm note. It is gaining against most major and emerging market currencies. Outside of what appears to be a staged call between US President Elect Trump and the Taiwanese President, the developments in Europe grabbed the markets' attention. Austria turned back the populist right Freedom Party's bid for the presidency. The Freedom Party does not appear to have carried...

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Swiss Tourism this Summer: More Swiss Guests, Less Asian Guests

2016-12-05

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2016-12-05

In the summer months, the Swiss hotels registered more guests from Switzerland. from the United States and from Europe. But there was a sharp decline of guest from Asia. 100'000 more overnight stays from Switzerland could not recover the decrease of 200'000. One important reason for decline is the weakening Chinese currency, that reduced their purchasing power, in dollar but also in CHF.

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FX Weekly Preview: Focus Shifts toward Europe

2016-12-05

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2016-12-05

Economic Events: Eurozone, Week December 05
US developments have driven the dollar rally and bond market decline over the past three weeks. Attention shifts to European politics and the ECB meeting. Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia meet but are unlikely to change policy.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-12-04

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2016-12-04

EM remains a mixed bag. Despite the negative connotations of a rising US rate environment, EM gathered an element of stability last week as the dollar consolidated its recent gains. Rising commodity prices are also helping EM at the margin, with RUB and COP amongst the best last week on higher oil and CLP on higher copper.

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FX Weekly Review, November 28 – December 02: CHF Index still at its 4% loss since U.S. Elections

2016-12-04

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2016-12-04

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 02
The Swiss Franc index continued around its 4% loss since the U.S. elections, while the US Dollar index had a 4% increase. The focus shifts to the ECB meeting, where participants are wary of a "hawkish ease".

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Net National Savings Rate, the Best Alternative Indicator to GDP Growth

For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indictator to GDP growth. It is positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. But today GDP growth is often negatively correlated to the Net Savings Rate. Hence GDP is often a less useful measure.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Short CHF Are Increasing

2016-12-03

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2016-12-03

The net short CHF speculative position is close to reaching new records. Shortly before the end of the peg, speculators were net short CHF by 26K contracts. Now we are at 24.3K.

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The War On Cash Is Happening Faster Than We Could Have Imagined

2016-12-03

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2016-12-03

It’s happening faster than we could have ever imagined. Every time we turn around, it seems, there’s another major assault in the War on Cash. India is the most notable recent example– the embarrassing debacle a few weeks ago in which the government, overnight, “demonetized” its two largest denominations of cash, leaving an entire nation in chaos.

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Sunrise beats Swisscom on mobile network coverage

2016-12-03

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2016-12-03

Sunrise Network Performance
After seven years on top, Swisscom has been beaten by Sunrise. The German telecommunications expert and magazine publisher, connect.de and its partner P3, travelled roughly 7,000 km by car around Switzerland testing Swiss mobile networks. Tests were also made while walking and on trains. The results were published on Tuesday.

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Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban – Part IV

2016-12-03

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2016-12-03

Indian Jewelry Merchant
The Indian Prime Minister announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II and Part-III updates on the rapidly encroaching police state. The economic and social mess that Modi has created is unprecedented. It will go down in history as an epitome of naivety and arrogance due to Modi’s self-centered desire to increase tax-collection at any cost.

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