Tag Archive: newsletter

Brexit looms over Geneva motor show

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

The Geneva International Motor Show opens this week amid growing concerns about the impact of Brexit on car manufacturers in the UK and across Europe. Experts expect that a no-deal Brexit could lead to sudden tariffs that could disrupt the auto industry supply chain. With three weeks left until UK’s planned exit from the EU, some car manufacturers see the annual Geneva motor show as an opportunity to warn against a no-deal separation while...

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What Killed the Middle Class?

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

Wages aren't keeping up
Rounding up the usual suspects won't restore a vibrant middle class. What killed the middle class? The answer may well echo an Agatha Christie mystery: rather than there being one guilty party, it may be that each of the suspects participated in the demise of the middle class.

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Swiss Retail Sales, January 2019: -0.3 percent Nominal and -0.4 percent Real

2019-03-02

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2019-03-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, January 2019
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.3% in nominal terms in January 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.4% in January 2019 compared with the previous year.

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Meanwhile, Over In Asia

2019-03-02

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2019-03-02

Japan Industrial Production, SA 2008-2019
While Western markets breathed a sigh of relief that US GDP didn’t confirm the global slowdown, not yet, what was taking place over in Asia went in the other direction. There has been a sense, a wish perhaps, that if the global economy truly did hit a rough spot it would be limited to just the last three months of 2018. Hopefully Mario Draghi is on to something.

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GBP to CHF rate hovers over 1.32 awaiting new Brexit Developments

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Swiss Franc CHF Exchange Rates Graph
The pound has rallied higher against the Swiss Franc with rates for the GBP/CHF pair now sitting over 1.32. Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates have been lifted on the back of some optimism over Brexit, that a deal will be reached between Britain and the EU. The markets are awaiting developments over the contentious Irish backstop which could pave the way forward for a deal.

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FX Daily, March 01: Could the Worst be Behind China and Germany? Or Hope Springs Eternal

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Overview:  News that MSCI plans to substantially boost China's equity weighting in its indices and a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and some easing of India-Pakistan tensions helped bolster the risk-taking appetite going into the weekend.  This lifting equity and weighing on bonds.  China's CSI 300 rose 2.2% for a 6.5% weekly gain. 

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Switzerland GDP Q4 2018: +0.2 percent QoQ, +1.4 percent YoY

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q4 2018
Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Manufacturing saw dynamic growth. Concurrently, exports of goods increased significantly. In contrast, domestic demand stagnated. GDP growth was 2.5% for 2018 as a whole.

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Federal Court rejects complaint against Volkswagen importer

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Switzerland’s highest court has dismissed a legal complaint by a consumer group against Amag, an importer of German Volkswagen diesel cars into Switzerland, linked to the emissions-rigging scandal. The Federal Court rejected an appeal by the SKS consumer group, stating that it had no case against VW and Amag; SKS claimed that they had misled car buyers and violated Swiss law.

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The Doomsday Scenario for the Stock and Housing Bubbles

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

SPX, weekly 1994 - 2019
It was always folly to believe that inflating asset bubbles could solve the structural problems of a post-industrial economy. The Doomsday Scenario for the stock and housing bubbles is simple: the Fed's magic fails. When dropping interest rates to zero and flooding the financial sector with loose money fail to ignite the economy and reflate the deflating bubbles, punters will realize the Fed's magic only worked the first three times: three bubbles...

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The Gold Debate – Where Do Things Stand in the Gold Market?

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

A Recurring Pattern. When the gold price recently spiked up to approach the resistance area even Aunt Hilda, Freddy the town drunk, and his blind dog know about by now, a recurring pattern played out. The move toward resistance fanned excitement among gold bugs (which was conspicuously lacking previously).

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FX Daily, February 28: Trump Walks Away from North Korea. Should Beijing Worry?

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Overview:  News that the US-North Korean summit ended abruptly without an agreement spurred losses in equities and gains in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. US President Trump willingness to walk away from the talks is important in and of itself, but it also sends a warning not to go all in on a US-China trade agreement that could also sour at the last minute.

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Good Year for Swiss Economy in 2018

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

After some years of steady but low growth, the Swiss economy expanded by 2.5% in 2018 on the back of a positive global situation. The figures, released on Thursday by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), showed growth last year that was a hair below expected (+2.6%) but which still marked a jump from 2017 figures (+1.6%).

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The Swiss hotel sector saw a new record number of overnight stays in 2018

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Overnight stays 2018
The hotel sector in Switzerland registered 38.8 million overnight stays in 2018, i.e. the best result to date. This represented a growth of 3.8% (+1.4 million) compared with 2017. Foreign demand totalled 21.4 million units, an increase of 4.5% (+921 000) and its best performance in 10 years. Swiss overnight stays increased by 2.9% (+493 000), thus reaching the record value of 17.4 million overnight stays.

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No Surprise, Hysteria Wasn’t a Sound Basis For Interpretation

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Labor Utilization Total Hours Worked 2008-2018
What gets them into trouble is how they just can’t help themselves. Go back one year, to early 2018. Last February it was all-but-assured (in mainstream coverage) that the US economy was going to take off. The bond market, meaning UST’s, was about to be massacred because the overheating boom would force a double shot down its throat.

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U.S. Mint Suspends Silver Bullion Coin Sales After Sales Double In February

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

US Mint Silver Eagle Sales, Feb 2018 - Feb 2019
U.S. Mint suspends silver bullion coin sales after sales double in February. Silver investment demand for American Eagles (one ounce) silver bullion coins depletes West Point Mint inventories. U.S. Mint suspended sales of American Eagle (1 oz) coins on Feb. 21 because it had no coins left to sell.

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CNBC Clip: February 24 Brexit

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

We tried a CNBC hook-up in Asia via Skype on February 25.  I did not think there would be a clip, but I stumbled on it looking for something else.  Click here for the roughly 2.5-minute interview done from my apartment in NYC.  The discussion is on Brexit and sterling. 

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FX Daily, February 27: Dollar Trades Heavily, While Prospects of a Softer and Later Brexit Send Sterling Higher

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

Overview: As the North American session is about to begin, the markets await developments in the UK House of Commons where a vote is expected today on Prime Minister May's proposal to hold votes on around March 12 on the Withdrawal Bill and no deal. However, perceptions of a reduced likelihood of a no-deal exit continued to fuel sterling gains.

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Swiss weapons exports increase 14 percent

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

Swiss companies last year exported government-approved war materiel to 64 countries with a total value of CHF510 million ($510 million), 14% more than the previous year. Germany was the largest customer, taking deliveries worth CHF118 million, followed by Denmark, the US, Romania and Italy, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said on Tuesday.

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The Fate of Real Estate

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

NAR Inventory of Homes For Sale, NSA 2014-2019
For years, realtors have been waiting for more housing inventory. It had become an article of faith, what was restraining a full-blown recovery was the lack of units available. The level of resales like construction was up, but still way, way less than it was now fourteen years past the prior peak despite sufficient population growth to have absorbed the previous bubble’s overbuilding.

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Swiss private banking giant dips toes into crypto scene

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

One of Switzerland’s largest banks, Julius Baer, has entered the cryptoassets world by announcing a partnership with budding crypto bank start-up SEBA. While other Swiss banks, such as Vontobel, Falcon and Swissquote, are already active in the space, Julius Baer’s entrance has attracted particular attention.

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