Tag Archive: newsletter

IMF Warning: ‘World’s Financial System Is More Stretched, Unstable and Dangerous Than It Was On the Eve of the Lehman Crisis’

2019-10-20

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2019-10-20

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again warned that the world’s financial system is more stretched, unstable and dangerous than it was on the eve of the Lehman crisis. Quantitative easing, zero percent interest rates and massive financial repression has pushed investors – and in the case of pension funds or life insurers, actually forced them – into taking on ever more risk.

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Raising Switzerland’s retirement age – big differences of opinion

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

Switzerland’s government has long discussed the importance of raising the retirement age to ensure the financial viability of the pension system. However, it is not clear whether voters would support such a plan. According to a survey by Deloitte, an accounting and consulting company, raising the official retirement age might not find majority support among Swiss voters. Some groups are firmly against the idea.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback hits fresh October lows against the Swiss Franc

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF remains under heavy pressure after the London close. The level to beat for bears is the 0.9871 level. On the daily chart, USD/CHF is trading in a sideways trend, now challenging the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages (DSMAs) below the 0.9900 handle.  the near term. Resistances can be seen at the 0.9881

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Credit Suisse to charge wealthy clients negative interest rates

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

Credit Suisse has joined the likes of UBS and Post Finance in charging rich clients to park their wealth in its vaults. It will pass on the cost of the central bank’s negative interest rates to both private individuals and corporate accounts above certain thresholds. From November 15, corporate clients will be charged -0.85% interest on cash holdings above CHF10 million ($10 million), Credit Suisse confirmed on Friday.

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Welcome to the USSR: the United States of Suppression and Repression

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

workers share of national income, 1994-2020
We're all against "fake news," right? Until your content is deemed "fake news" in a "fake news" indictment without any evidence, trial or recourse. When propaganda is cleverly engineered, people don't even recognize it as propaganda: welcome to the USSR, the United States of Suppression and Repression. 

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Referendum to ban tobacco advertising in Switzerland reaches 100,000 signatures

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

An initiative demanding a ban on tobacco advertising has collected 109,969 valid signatures, more than the 100,000 minimum required to launch a popular vote, according to RTS. The planned vote entitled: “Yes to the protection of children and young people against tobacco advertising” demands the federal government ban all forms of tobacco advertising towards children and young people.

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Cool Video: With Rick Santelli on CNBC

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

I was invited to Rick Santelli's Exchange on CNBC earlier today. There is a 3.5-minute clip of the interview that can be found here. Despite being a dollar bull for nearly a decade (since around the time of my first book--Making Sense of the Dollar--), I do not think a strong or weak dollar is desirable. It is about the level that is appropriate depending on business conditions and the economic cycle.

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Economic Decay Leads to Social and Political Decay

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

Workers share of national income, 1994-2020
If we want to make real progress, we have to properly diagnose the structural sources of the rot that is spreading quickly into every nook and cranny of the society and culture. It seems my rant yesterday (Let Me Know When It's Over) upset a lot of people, many of whom felt I trivialized the differences between the parties and all the reforms that people believe will right wrongs and reduce suffering.

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China’s Dollar Problem Puts the Sync In Globally Synchronized Downturn

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

China Exports, 2006-2019
Because the prevailing theory behind the global slowdown is “trade wars”, most if not all attention is focused on China. While the correct target, everyone is coming it at from the wrong direction. The world awaits a crash in Chinese exports engineered by US tariffs. It’s not happening, at least according to China’s official statistics.

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Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, 2001-2019
Despite the name, the Fed doesn’t actually intervene in the US$ repo market. I know they called them overnight repo operations, but that’s only because they mimic repo transactions not because the central bank is conducting them in that specific place. What really happened was FRBNY allotting bank reserves (in exchange for UST, MBS, and agency collateral) only to the 24 primary dealers.

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Dollar Broadly Weaker as Brexit Deal Takes Shape

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

The dollar remains under pressure due to weak US retail sales and rising optimism on Brexit and the trade war. Brexit negotiations remain tense and we should expect a higher than usual noise-to-signal ratio at this stage. China said its goal is to stop the trade war and remove all tariffs. US has a full data schedule; we remain constructive on the US economic outlook.

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FX Daily, October 17: EU-UK Deal Sends Sterling and the Euro Higher

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

Overview: A Brexit deal between the UK and the EU has been struck. Whether it can win Parliament's approval is a horse of a different color. Meanwhile, US-Chinese relations continue to sour. The capital markets are narrowly mixed as investors await further developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific is consolidated after gaining for the past four sessions.

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Commodities trader Gunvor held criminally liable for corruption

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

The Geneva-based trading company Gunvor has been ordered to pay almost CHF94 million ($94.6 million), including a fine of CHF4 million over bribery in Africa. The commodities trader failed to prevent its employees and agents from bribing public officials between 2008 and 2011 in order to gain access to the petroleum markets in the Republic of Congo and Ivory Coast, the Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland (OAG) said in a statement on...

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Breaks below 0.9940 confluence support, turns vulnerable

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

USD/CHF daily chart, June - November 2019
The pair remains under some selling pressure for the second straight session. The ongoing slide dragged it below a two-month-old ascending trend-channel. Bears might now aim towards challenging the 0.9900 round-figure mark. The USD/CHF pair extended this week's rejection slide from the vicinity of the key parity mark and remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2019: exports still rising thanks to chemistry-pharma

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), Q3 2019
In the third quarter of 2019, foreign trade showed a positive trend: while exports rose by 0.9%, imports posted double growth (+ 1.8%). Both the first and the second have achieved a record quarterly result. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 5.9 billion francs.

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Libra cryptocurrency soldiers on despite key departures

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

Facebook’s cryptocurrency payments project, Libra, has suffered a major blow with the withdrawal of seven key partners. But the Geneva-based Libra Association continues to battle on against a regulatory onslaught by adopting a charter and forming an executive team.

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Dutch Central Bank: Gold Bars ‘Always Retain Their Value, Crisis Or No Crisis’

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

DNB's gold stock
◆ “Gold is the perfect piggy bank – it’s the anchor of trust for the financial system” says the Central Bank of the Netherlands ◆ “If the system collapses, the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again” astutely and prudently observes the Dutch Central Bank ◆ The Dutch people “hold more than 600 tonnes of gold. A bar of gold always retains its value, crisis or no crisis”

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Intraday uptick falters just ahead of parity mark

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

USD/CHF daily chart, June - October 2019
Despite the intraday pullback, the pair has managed to hold above 200-DMA. The near-term technical set-up support prospects for some dip-buying interest. The USD/CHF pair failed to capitalize on its intraday positive move and faced rejection near the key parity mark, albeit has still managed to hold above the very important 200-day SMA.

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FX Daily, October 16: Fickle Market Tempers Enthusiasm

2019-10-16

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2019-10-16

Overview: Fading hopes that a Brexit agreement can be struck is seeing sterling trade broadly lower, while China's demand that US tariffs be rescinded in exchange for a commitment to buy $40-$50 bln of US agriculture goods over two years, makes the handshake agreement less secure. At the same time, Hong Kong is becoming another front in the US-Sino confrontation.

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