Tag Archive: newsletter

‘Corona-compliant’ Alpine cow processions to go ahead

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

The traditional driving of cows up to mountain pastures for the summer will still take place this year in Appenzell, northeastern Switzerland, despite the coronavirus pandemic. However, the processions will not be publicised so as not to attract tourists and spectators.

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Coronavirus: Swiss schools and other establishments set to reopen

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

On 29 April 2020, Switzerland’s government announced plans to allow schools and other establishments to reopen on Monday 11 May 2020. From 11 May 2020, shops, restaurants, markets, museums, libraries, primary and lower secondary schools and sports training centres will be allowed to reopen. In addition, public transport will operate according to the standard timetable, announced the government.

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GDP + GFC = Fragile

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

March 15 was when it all began to come down. Not the stock market; that had been in freefall already, beset by the rolling destruction of fire sale liquidations emanating out of the repo market (collateral side first). No matter what the Federal Reserve did or announced, there was no stopping the runaway devastation.

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THE BITCOIN HALVING REVISITED – With Ann Rhefn

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

What is the Bitcoin Halving and What Might it Mean for the Price Watch “THE BITCOIN HALVING REVISITED – With Ann Rhefn”

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COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

Federal Reserve: Liabilities & Capital, 1984-2019
As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely cited, thanks to Jay Powell and his 2019 rate cuts plus “repo” operations the calculations suggested the system was robust.

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FX Daily, April 30: ECB Takes Center Stage

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

Overview: Equities continue to recover even as deep economic contractions are reported. Yesterday, the US said Q1 GDP contracted at an annualized pace of 4.8%, while the eurozone reported today that output fell 3.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q1.  Hong Kong and South Korea were closed, but the rest of the Asia Pacific bourses rallied strongly with several, including Australia and India, rising more than 2%.

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Swiss Retail Sales, March 2020: -6.2 percent Nominal and -5.6 percent Real

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, March 2020
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 6.2% in nominal terms in March 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 6.0% compared with the previous month. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, turnover slumped markedly in some sectors.

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Recognition for our report from the Swiss mountains

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

A longform report that we published last autumn has been shortlisted for the Swiss Press Award. The nomination is an honour for our team. Can people in Switzerland really live and work wherever they want on account of the digital revolution? Even in the mountains? A longform multimedia report by SWI swissinfo.ch has the answer.

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Swiss GDP set for worst fall in decades

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

A team of economic experts working for the Swiss government forecasts a 6.7% fall in GDP and unemployment to rise to 3.9% in Switzerland in 2020. If these predictions prove right, it will be the biggest slump in economic activity since 1975.

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot. As the week commences, a few markets such as Sri Lanka and Philippines are extending their lockdown periods while others such as Nigeria and Kenya continue to experience USD liquidity issues. Please see comments below.

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Dusty Wunderlich on FinTech Financing: Entrepreneurs Helping Entrepreneurs

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

Fintech Ecosystem
Key Takeaways and Actionable Insights. Consider these findings from a 2017 report from the G20 Global Partnership For Financial Inclusion, titled Alternative Data: Transforming SME Finance.

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The Fed Has Gone Nuts. And It Can Get Worse.

2020-04-30

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2020-04-30

With its $700 billion bond-buying expansion in response to the COVID crisis, the Federal Reserve has thrust itself into the limelight. Like a sixteen-year-old with a credit card, the Fed is salivating over what money-printing powers it shall seize next. How is the prudent investor to respond?

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FX Daily, April 29: Heavy Dollar amid Month-End Pressure

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

Overview: The dollar is lower across the board as dealers attribute the selling to month-end pressures ahead of the FOMC today and ECB tomorrow and long-holiday weekend for many. Japan's Golden Week holiday has already begun. Despite the loss in US equities yesterday, despite the higher opening, it has not spilled over, as Alphabet earnings helped lift sentiment.

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Stockpiling – a Swiss civic duty

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

During the coronavirus pandemic, panic buying has not been too problematic in Switzerland. But in previous global crises the Swiss tended to rush to the shops to stock up. Encouraged by the authorities, keeping emergency supplies remains a well-ingrained tradition for Swiss citizens.

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With Superfluous Demand in Free-Fall, What’s the Upside of Re-Opening a Small Business?

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

Since superfluous demand was the core driver of most consumer spending, and that demand is in free-fall, what's the upside of re-opening? The mainstream view assumes everyone will be gripped by an absolutely rabid desire to return to their pre-pandemic frenzy of borrowing and spending and consuming, the more the better. 

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The Puppet Show Is Powerful

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

I never said it wasn’t powerful. What I continue to show is that it doesn’t work. Ben Bernanke kept his job because despite the carnage, in times of turmoil people are willing to give anyone a second chance. And if the turmoil never ends, so much the luckier – for him. 

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New York vs Texas: NY Has Nearly 50 Times More COVID-19 Deaths Per Capita

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

Share of COVID-19 Deaths in US
As of April 26, there were nearly 55,000 COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States. Of those, more than 22,000 (or about 40 percent) were in the state of New York alone. New Jersey was in second place, with nearly 5,900 COVID-19 deaths reported.

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COVID-19 Is Teaching Us Decentralization Is Needed More Now Than Ever

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

In the increasingly polarized America, Black Swan moments like the COVID-19 pandemic have further confirmed growing divides in the country. Our textbooks would like us to believe that emergencies create fertile grounds for unity. But when you have a populace that is politically dividing itself even when it comes to the TV shows it watches, there comes a point when we have to start recognizing that the prospect of national unity is becoming more of...

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FX Daily, April 28: Oil’s Slides before Steadying, while Easing of Lockdowns Support Risk-Taking

2020-04-28

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2020-04-28

Overview: Equities are building on yesterday's gains.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2% yesterday and edged higher today. Shanghai and Austalia stand out as exceptions.   In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is extending yesterday's 1.8% gain to reach its best level since March 11. Today would be the fourth advance in the past five sessions. US shares are firmer.

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Dollar Remains Under Pressure as Risk-on Sentiment Persists

2020-04-28

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2020-04-28

The death toll from the virus continues to trend lower in Europe and the US; the dollar remains under some pressure. The Fed announced an expansion of its Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF); regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out; other data will be reported.

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