Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, May 19: Optimism Burns Eternal

2020-05-19

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2020-05-19

Overview: Hopes for a vaccine and a German-French proposal to break the logjam at the EU for a joint recovery effort helped propel equities higher yesterday. There was strong follow-through in the Asia Pacific region, where most markets advanced by more than 1% today. However,  the bloom came off the rose, so to speak, in Europe. After a higher opening, markets reversed lower, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.75% in late morning turnover.

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Why is the Pound to Euro Rate Falling? Will it Continue?

2020-05-19

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2020-05-19

U.K jobless claims were released in early morning trading today, much like many economic data releases the figures were posted at an earlier than usual 07:00, we normally would see a release such as this out at 09:30. The figures, as expected were not particularly great reading for the U.K economy however there was a slight surprise in the fact that the official unemployment rate came in at 3.9% as opposed to the 4.3% which had been expected.

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House View, May 2020

2020-05-19

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2020-05-19

With leading economies likely facing double-digit declines in GDP in Q1 and Q2, we expect Brent oil in the USD10–20 range in Q2 before reaching a long-term equilibrium of USD18 at year’s end. With consumers tempted to remain cautious, the oil sector in deep difficulty and a big rise in unemployment, we expect dire Q2 GDP figures for the US. We have reduced our GDP forecast for 2020 as a whole to -7.7%.

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-05-19

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2020-05-19

Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged this week. Philippines, Bangladesh and Kuwait have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity. Please see trading comments below

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Money Supply Growth in April Ballooned to a New High

2020-05-19

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2020-05-19

YoY Change in money supply, 1998-2019
Fueled by unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages, the money supply growth rate ballooned in April to an all-time high. The growth rate has never been higher, with the 1970s as the only period that comes close. It was expected that money supply growth would surge in recent months. This usually happens in the wake of the early months of a recession or financial crisis.

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How Words Like “Essential” and “Need” Are Abused by Politicians

2020-05-19

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2020-05-19

Over the years, one of the most common trump cards used to justify government treating people differently, rather than equally, has been the word need. And when used to override individuals’ ownership of themselves and what they produce, its usage has created confusion rather than clarity. In public discussion, “need” has increasingly morphed into one of its synonyms—essential, as in “essential jobs.” But it still suffers from many of the same...

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FX Daily, May 18: Yuan Slumps as US-Chinese Tensions Rise

2020-05-18

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2020-05-18

Overview: Despite somber warnings that the US economic recovery can stretch to the end of next year, investors have begun the new week by taking on new risks. Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, with Australia leading the large bourses with a 1% gain. India was an outlier, suffering a 2.4% loss, and Taiwan's semiconductor sector was hit, and the Taiex fell 0.6%.

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Kauf von Swiss Re – 6 Monate Nachkauf Regel gebrochen? ??

2020-05-18

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2020-05-18

Ich habe nun eine meiner Regeln gebrochen, normalerweise kaufe ich Aktien jeweils nur alle 6 Monate nach. Bei Swiss Re habe ich allerdings noch einmal zugeschlagen und 30 Stück ins Depot geholt. Der letzte Kauf lag nur 2 Monate zurück. Hier geht’s übrigens zum letzten Aktien Kauf AT&T. Kauf von Swiss ReMit diesem Kauf von Swiss Re habe ich nun insgesamt 110 Aktien in meinem Depot.

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National Bank snubs calls for more coronavirus money

2020-05-18

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2020-05-18

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has dismissed demands to increase its payout to help the economy cope with the costs of the coronavirus pandemic. Governing board member Andréa Maechler an additional financial contribution would counteract monetary policy.

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Minister calls for extra funds for Swiss unemployment system

2020-05-18

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2020-05-18

Economics Minister Guy Parmelin says it is crucial to end the lockdown and prevent a collapse of the unemployment scheme to ensure Switzerland’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis. Parmelin said the government would decide on an injection of additional funds into the state unemployment scheme at one of its next meetings.

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Clean gold: How Switzerland could set new supply chain standards

2020-05-18

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2020-05-18

Switzerland is the undisputed top dog of the global gold industry, refining a majority of the world’s gold, as well as being the leading exporter. But how seriously does the country take its responsibility to ensure sustainable mining and the protection of human rights? 

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How Central Banks and Lockdowns Are Making the Crisis Worse

2020-05-18

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2020-05-18

What typifies the phenomenon of the boom-bust cycle is that it is recurrent. What is the reason for this? Loose monetary policies set the platform for various activities that would not emerge without the easy monetary stance. What loose monetary policy does here is to engineer the transfer of real savings from wealth generating activities to artificially stimulated activities, which we can label as bubble activities.

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‘Clean and safe’ image could boost Swiss tourism

2020-05-17

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2020-05-17

Switzerland Tourism has welcomed next month’s re-opening of borders with France, Germany and Austria. It believes the country’s reputation for cleanliness and tidiness could be a selling point once the Covid-19 pandemic dies down.

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Swiss rank high in energy index

2020-05-17

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2020-05-17

Switzerland has placed second in a global index comparing current energy systems and readiness for the transition to cleaner sources. In its new Energy Transition Indexexternal link, the World Economic Forum (WEF) identifies the coronavirus pandemic as a serious threat to the switch to renewable energies.

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There Was Never A Need To Translate ‘Weimar’ Into Japanese

2020-05-17

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2020-05-17

After years of futility, he was sure of the answer. The Bank of Japan had spent the better part of the roaring nineties fighting against itself as much as the bubble which had burst at the outset of the decade. Letting fiscal authorities rule the day, Japan’s central bank had largely sat back introducing what it said was stimulus in the form of lower and lower rates.No, stupid, declared Milton Friedman.

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Crisis or Opportunity? To Politicians, It’s the Same Thing

2020-05-17

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2020-05-17

Forget performing William Shakespeare’s Macbeth. The real art form is politicking. They sport taxpayer-funded windbreakers, speak with authority and urgency, and lead a brigade of specialists. When a crisis unfolds, whether it is a hurricane or a virus outbreak, politicians stand before the cameras, appearing to be in control of the situation—but they see an opportunity.

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Swiss government reveals more on Covid-19 tracing app

2020-05-16

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2020-05-16

On 13 May 2020, Switzerland’s government published more information on the Swiss Proximity Tracing App (Swiss PT), an app designed to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Developed by teams at EPFL and ETHZ, the app uses Bluetooth to detect when your phone comes within two metres of another phone or device with the app. It then records the contact as an anonymous key and the duration of contact, flagging any close contact longer than 15 minutes.

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Tyres and litterbugs spread plastic across Switzerland

2020-05-16

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2020-05-16

Each year some 14,000 tonnes of plastic waste end up in the Swiss environment. A federally commissioned analysis identifies two main culprits: tyre abrasion (around 8,000 tonnes) and littering (around 2,700 tonnes).

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The Collapse of Main Street and Local Tax Revenues Cannot Be Reversed

2020-05-16

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2020-05-16

The core problem is the U.S. economy has been fully financialized, and so costs are unaffordable. To understand the long-term consequences of the pandemic on Main Street and local tax revenues, we need to consider first and second order effects. The immediate consequences of lockdowns and changes in consumer behavior are first-order effects: closures of Main Street, job losses, massive Federal Reserve bailouts of the top 0.1%, loan programs for...

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How Bad Is It?

2020-05-16

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2020-05-16

How bad is it? That is the question on everyone's mind as we come to grips with the economic carnage caused by global economic shutdowns, supply chain disruptions, and ongoing quarantines of million of people. Do we face another Great Depression, or simply a deep recession more like 2008? And equally important, are soft Americans prepared for either? Have we started to process all of this psychologically?

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