Tag Archive: newsletter

Week Winding Down on Firm Note, but Wild Ride may Not Be Over

2018-12-29

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2018-12-29

The biggest reversal in the S&P 500 since 2010, allowing it to string the biggest two-day rally in three years helped lift Asian and European shares today. All the Asia-Pacific equity markets advanced today but Japan, where the strength of the yen saw the Nikkei and Topix buck the move. European equities.

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Mixed Outlook for Swiss watchmakers

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

Swiss Watch Industry
The Swiss watchmaking industry expects a continuing rise in exports next year but is concerned that the United States’ protectionist trade policy could have a negative impact on the sector. Jean-Daniel Pasche, president of the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, said the sector would record in 2018 the third consecutive year with growth, and the value of exports could exceed CHF21 billion ($21.2 billion).

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Some Thoughts on What is Happening

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

Elephant
People do not just disagree on what should and will happen, but they disagree on what has happened. As William Faulkner instructed: "The past is not dead. Actually, it's not even past. This is clear in the narratives about the sharp drop in equity markets.

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Wasting the Middle: Obsessing Over Exits

2018-12-28

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2018-12-28

NYMEX WTI Futures 2016-2018
What was the difference between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers? Well, for one thing Lehman’s failure wasn’t a singular event. In the heady days of September 2008, authorities working for any number of initialism agencies were busy trying to put out fires seemingly everywhere. Lehman had to compete with an AIG as well as a Wachovia, already preceded by a Fannie and a Freddie.

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Swiss Post handles record volume of Christmas parcels

2018-12-27

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2018-12-27

Swiss Post sorted and delivered a record 1.4 million parcels a day in the week before Christmas, which can be attributed to the continued growth of online shopping. This compares with last year’s record of 1.3 million set on December 19, Swiss Post said on Boxing Day.

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Are Stocks Overvalued, Report 24 Dec 2018

2018-12-27

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2018-12-27

Gold and Silver Prices
We could also have entitled this essay How to Measure Your Own Capital Destruction. But this headline would not have set expectations correctly. As always, when looking at the phenomenon of a credit-fueled boom, the destruction does not occur when prices crash. It occurs while they’re rising.

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The net result is capital is impaired in eras of uncertainty.

2018-12-27

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2018-12-27

Political Polarization Has Exploded Since 2000
The net result is capital is impaired in eras of uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2019, what can we be certain of? Maybe your list is long, but mine has only one item: certainty is fraying. Confidence in financial policies intended to eliminate recessions is fraying, confidence in political processes that are supposed to actually solve problems rather than make them worse is fraying, confidence in the objectivity of the corporate media is fraying,...

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Swiss foreign minister defends proposed EU deal

2018-12-26

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2018-12-26

Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis
Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis has rejected criticism of the results of negotiations with the European Union about a framework accord, encompassing all aspects of political relations between Switzerland and the 28-nation bloc.

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Just In Time For The Circus

2018-12-26

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2018-12-26

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI and GDP, Jul 2012 - Nov 2018
Just in time to follow closely upon yesterday’s European circus, IHS Markit piles on with more of the same forward-looking indications looking forward the wrong way. Mario Draghi says the ECB is ending QE, good for him. The central bank will do this despite balanced risks rebalancing in a different place. The more bad news and numbers stack up the more “they” say it’s nothing just transitory roughness.

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Halal label on Swiss chocolate sparks controversy

2018-12-25

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2018-12-25

Some consumers in Switzerland and abroad have been questioning the halal label on Toblerone chocolate bars. Although certified as halal in April, it was only this week that a small storm began brewing on social media – with some people calling for boycotts of the chocolate produced by Mondelez in Bern.

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Das: “The Bubble Is Losing Air. Get Ready For A Crisis”

2018-12-25

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2018-12-25

The shift to tighter monetary policies in the West is weakening credit markets. Over-indebted emerging markets face headwinds from rising borrowing costs and dollar shortages... Investors need to focus on their response to financial stresses in an era in which policymakers will be constrained.

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Swiss Luxury Watches Fail to Meet Environmental Standards

2018-12-24

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2018-12-24

The Swiss branch of the environmental organisation, WWF, has called on Swiss-based watch companies to take more responsibility for ecological and social impacts, notably the use of gold. In its reportexternal link analysing the 15 biggest watch brands, the WWF says its findings are highly worrying as most companies have done nothing to address and counter climate change.

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Xi Jinping’s Pretty Consistent Message

2018-12-24

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2018-12-24

China Industry Drives its Consumers, May 2011 - Nov 2018
It seems many were disappointed by the speech delivered by Xi Jinping. China’s supreme leader spoke at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing today on the 40th anniversary of his country’s first embrace of economic reform. Commentators had been expecting Xi to use the occasion to recommit to liberalization, further opening China to free market forces.

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Core Euro Sovereign Bonds 2019 Outlook

2018-12-23

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2018-12-23

10 Year Bund Yield and EONIA Pricing, 2016 - 2018
In our central scenario, we expect the 10-year Bund yield to rise gradually to 0.8% by the end of next year from 0.26% on 17 December. Underpinning this upward movement is our expectation of a cumulative deposit rate hike of 40 basis points (bps) by the ECB, against current market expectations of only 10 bps.

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Swiss government approves post-Brexit deal on treatment of UK and Swiss nationals

2018-12-23

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2018-12-23

Today, The Federal Council, Switzerland’s executive, announced it has approved a deal safeguarding the rights of Swiss and UK citizens after Brexit. The agreement is part of a package of deals being worked out as part of a plan dubbed “Mind the Gap”. Under the agreement, any UK citizen residing in Switzerland before Brexit will retain all of their existing rights for life.

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Construction prices rose by 0.3 percent in October 2018

2018-12-22

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2018-12-22

Development of the construction price index in Switzerland
The construction price index recorded a rise of 0.3% between April and October 2018, reaching 99.3 points (October 2015 = 100). This result reflects a greater increase in civil engineering prices than in building prices. Year on year, construction prices increased by 0.6%.

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Switzerland could see vote on laws banning age discrimination

2018-12-22

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2018-12-22

Heidi Joos, the managing director of the organisation Avenir 50 plus, and others, plan to launch a referendum aimed at introducing laws against age discrimination in Switzerland. Age discrimination in recruitment is common in Switzerland. Some job search websites allow filtering by age, and job adverts sometimes specify applicants be below a particular age.

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Forex Forensics: The Case of the Yen

2018-12-22

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2018-12-22

Over the past five sessions, the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating about 1.7% against the US dollar, eclipsing the Swedish krona, which rallied strongly today after the Riksbank's surprise rate hike.  Given the sell-off in equities and the decline in markets, the yen's strength is not surprising. 

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FX Daily, December 21: Markets Stumble into the Weekend

2018-12-21

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2018-12-21

Overview: There is little reprieve from the equity meltdown ahead of the weekend. Major markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, China, India, and Australia pushed lower. The MSCI index of the region is near 15-month lows. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.6% near midday in London to make new two-year lows. US shares are also trading lower in Europe.

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