Tag Archive: newsletter

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-09

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2019-12-09

EM has had a good month so far as market optimism on a Phase One trade deal remains high. Yet November trade data due out this week should show that until that deal is finalized, the outlook for EM remains weak.  Deadline for the next round of US tariffs is December 15 and so talks this week are crucial. 

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How California’s Government Plans to Make Wildfires Even Worse

2019-12-09

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2019-12-09

Not every square inch of the planet earth is suitable for a housing development. Flood plains are not great places to build homes. A grove of trees adjacent to a tinder-dry national forest is not ideal for a dream home. And California's chaparral ecosystems are risky places for neighborhoods.

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Some Swiss import duties could be axed

2019-12-08

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2019-12-08

Swiss import duties on a number of industrial products might disappear if a plan put forward by Guy Parmelin, Switzerland’s economic’s minister, is approved by the National Council, Switzerland’s parliament. The changes are expected to benefit businesses and consumers by around CHF 860 million a year. On the other hand, the government will miss out on collecting roughly CHF 500 million a year of revenue from import duties.

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Failed space flight firm was backed by ‘phantom bank’

2019-12-08

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2019-12-08

The company Swiss Space Systems (S3) received financial backing from a fictitious bank as it unsuccessfully fought against bankruptcy, according to media reports. S3, which promised simulated space flights to the public, collapsed in 2017 amid much controversy.

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European Economy: A Time Recession

2019-12-08

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2019-12-08

European Economy, 2016-2019
Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before.

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Fails Swarms Are Just One Part

2019-12-08

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2019-12-08

US Treasury, 2010-2019
There it was sticking out like a sore thumb right in the middle of what should have been the glory year. Everything seemed to be going just right for once, success so close you could almost feel it. Well, “they” could. The year was 2014 and the unemployment rate in the US was tumbling, the result of the “best jobs market in decades.” Real GDP in that year’s two middle quarters was pretty near 5% in both.

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Blockchain shares – who needs lawmakers?

2019-12-08

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2019-12-08

The Swiss parliament will soon get to grips with merging the current financial system with new blockchain architecture. This is a bit like refitting your whole house to make sure the swanky new furniture and fittings blend in. Switzerland has deliberately chosen to not to tear the whole house down and build it again in a new style.

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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

S&P 500 1-year Realised Volatility vs Effective Fed Funds Real Rates, 1990-2019
Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

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Switzerland’s skilled worker shortage worsens

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

At 30 September 2019, Switzerland had 79,000 job vacancies and 225,000 unemployed workers. This combination of unemployment and job vacancies can largely be explained by two things. The first is frictional unemployment, the period spent in between jobs. This typically increases when there is a lot of job changing. The second is a skills mismatch. Employers cannot find the skills they need among those seeking work.

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French strike disrupts rail traffic with Switzerland 

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

A national strike in France is causing severe disruptions to high-speed TGV rail traffic between Paris and Switzerland. Swiss Federal Railways issued an advisory discouraging travel along this route from December 5 to 8. Only one TGV train will operate between France and Switzerland on Thursday.

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All Signs Of More Slack

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

PCE Chain-type Price Index, 2009-2019
The evidence continues to pile up for increasing slack in the US economy. While that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession looming, it sure doesn’t help in that regard. Besides, more slack after ten years of it is the real story. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure in October 2019 stood at 1.31%, matching February for the lowest in several years.

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More Signals Of The Downturn, Globally Synchronized

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

US Imports of Goods, NSA 1989-2019
For US importers, October is their month. And it makes perfect sense how it would be. With the Christmas season about to kick into full swing each and every November, the time for retailers to stock up in hearty anticipation is in the weeks beforehand. The goods, a good many future Christmas presents, find themselves in transit from all over the world during the month of October.

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Blue Laws: Consumers, Not Capitalists, Are the Reason We’re Working on Sunday

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

It has now become commonplace for politicians and media pundits to casually assert that "everyone" — to use Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's term — is now working more and more hours — and perhaps two or three jobs — just to attain the most basic, near-subsistence standard of living.

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Andy Moran – The Shingles

2019-12-06

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FX Daily, December 6: And Now for the Employment Report

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

Overview:  Asia Pacific equities closed higher today, with India being a notable exception.  Hong Kong and South Korea led with 1% rallies.  For the week, the MSCI index for the region advanced to snap a three-week decline.  European and US bourses have not fared as well.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is paring this week's losses, but it is still off around 0.9% through the European morning session. 

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Core sovereign bonds 2020 Outlook

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

10-year Core Sovereign Yields, 2017-2019
Neutral US Treasuries. We expect the US 10-year yield to fall towards 1.3% in H1 as US growth falters and the US Federal Reserve starts signalling additional rate cuts. However, continued monetary easing and election promises (i.e. fiscal stimulus) could boost inflation expectations in H2, with the 10-year yield ending 2020 at around 1.6% in our central scenario.

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Environmental spending and jobs on the rise 

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

Swiss spending on environmental protection has increased 45% in the last eighteen years, while the number of people employed in the sector has almost doubled. Environmental protection spending rose from CHF8.5 billion ($8.6 billion) in 2000 to CHF12.4 billion in 2018, according to the Federal Statistical Officeexternal link. As a percentage of GDP, it has remained rather stable, fluctuating between 1.9% and 1.7%.

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Costs Are Spiraling Out of Control

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

Wages aren't keeping up
And how do we pay for these spiraling out of control costs? By borrowing more, of course. If we had to choose one "big picture" reason why the vast majority of households are losing ground, it would be: the costs of essentials are spiraling out of control. I've often covered the dynamics of stagnating income for the bottom 90%, and real-world inflation, i.e. a decline in purchasing power.

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Largest Gold Nugget in Britain Found in River in Scotland – “Experts” Concerned About a Scottish Gold Rush

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

The largest gold nugget in Britain has been found in a Scottish river, as experts reveal that members of the public are taking up hunting after watching YouTube clips. The diver, who wishes to remain anonymous, discovered the £80,000 “doughnut-shaped” nugget using a method called “sniping”, in which a prospector uses a snorkel and hand tools to scan the riverbed for treasures.

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Global ‘Gold Rush’ Beginning As Investors and Central Banks Buy, Repatriate and Move Gold

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

◆ Gold is flowing to strong hands in safer forms of gold ownership, in safer jurisdictions. ◆ Gold and silver bullion coins and bars owned by GoldCore’s clients have been moved from Hong Kong to Singapore. ◆ Central bank and institutional gold rush is beginning as prudent money diversifies fx reserves by buying gold & repatriates their gold from London and New York.

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