Tag Archive: newsletter

A Sour End To The 2010’s Doesn’t Have To Spoil The Entire 2020’s

2020-01-01

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2020-01-01

China GDP, 2011-2019
It has been perhaps the most astonishing divergence in the first two decades of 21st century history. In late 2017, Western economic officials (mostly central bankers) were taking their victory laps. They took great pains to tell the world it was due to their profound wisdom, deep courage, and, most of all, determined patience, that they had been able to see their policies through to the light of day (no thanks to voters around the world).

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Economic Stats Won’t Tell Us What Really Causes Recessions

2020-01-01

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2020-01-01

Most economists are of the view that by means of economic indicators it is possible to identify early signs of an upcoming recession or prosperity. What is the rationale behind this opinion? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) introduced the economic indicators approach in the 1930s.

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Presseschau vom Wochenende 52 (28./29. Dezember)

2019-12-31

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2019-12-31

NATIONALBANK: Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) dürfte gemäss Schätzung der SonntagsZeitung für das laufende Jahr einen Gewinn von gegen 50 Milliarden Franken ausweisen, nachdem 2018 noch ein Verlust von fast 15 Milliarden resultiert hatte. Für die ersten drei Quartale 2019 hatte die Nationalbank bereits einen Gewinn von 51,5 Milliarden Franken ausgewiesen, dies dank Wertsteigerungen auf den Anlagen als Folge sinkender Zinsen und steigender...

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Technical problem shuts down Swiss nuclear power station

2019-12-31

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2019-12-31

The Leibstadt nuclear power station in northern Switzerland has been disconnected from the power grid and shut down because of a technical fault. Once the cause has been clarified, the plant will be put back into operation as soon as possible, the operator said. It is not clear when that will be.

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The Hour Is Getting Late

2019-12-31

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2019-12-31

Total Assets, 2015-2019
After 11 years of "the Fed is the market" expansion, the Fed has now reduced its bloated balance sheet by 6.7%. This is normal, right? So here we are in Year 11 of the longest economic expansion/ stock market bubble in recent history, and by any measure, the hour is getting late, to quote Mr. Dylan: So let us not talk falsely nowthe hour is getting lateBob Dylan, "All Along the Watchtower"

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How to Write and Understand History

2019-12-30

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2019-12-30

[Adapted from Chapter 2 of Human Action.] The study of all the data of experience concerning human action is the scope of history. The historian collects and critically sifts all available documents. On the ground of this evidence he approaches his genuine task.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-29

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2019-12-29

EM FX was broadly firmer last week, taking advantage of the dollar’s soft tone as well as another wave of risk-on sentiment.  Bullishness on the global economy is quite strong, whilst we are perhaps a bit more skeptical given ongoing weakness in the UK, Japan, and the eurozone.  Dollar bearishness may also be overdone given our more constructive outlook on the US economy, but technical damage has been done that must now be repaired.

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Signs Swirl All Around Us – The Monetary Reset Is At Hand

2019-12-29

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2019-12-29

For most of this decade owning gold and gold-related investments has required the patience of Job, and the sector is so obscure that it is hard to be sure of anything. But for months now the unusual developments have been piling up so much that it may be possible to regain some optimism.

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To Be Useful, Data Needs Theory

2019-12-29

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2019-12-29

For most so-called practical economists, information regarding the state of an economy is derived from data. Thus, if an economic statistic such as real gross domestic product or industrial production shows a visible increase, it is considered indicative of a strengthening of the economy. Conversely, a decline in the growth rate is regarded as weakening. It seems that by looking at the data one can ascertain economic conditions. Is this the case,...

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The Turn

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

The year is winding down quietly, and the last week of 2019 is likely to be more of the same.  The general mood of the market is quite different than a year ago.  Then investors had marked down equities dramatically amid fears of what was perceived as a synchronized downturn.  Now with additional monetary easing in the pipeline and renewed expansion of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's balance sheets, risk appetites have been stoked.

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Facebook’s Libra has failed in current form, says Swiss president

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

Facebook’s Libra project needs reworking to be approved, according to the president of Switzerland, where the cryptocurrency is seeking regulatory consent. “I don’t think [Libra has a chance in its current form], because central banks will not accept the basket of currencies underpinning it,” Finance Minister Ueli Maurer, who held the rotating presidency in 2019, told Swiss public radio, SRF.

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Grüne fordert Verteuerung von klimaschädigenden Investitionen

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

Die Grünenpolitikerin Greta Gysin (TI) hat einen Vorschlag zur Berücksichtigung von ökologischen Aspekten bei Investitionen unterbreitet. "Wir müssen die Kosten solcher Investments internalisieren", sagte sie dem "Tages-Anzeiger" vom Samstag.

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Is Social Media the New Tobacco?

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

Smartphone Addiction Tightens Its Global Grip
If we set out to design a highly addictive platform that optimized the most toxic, destructive aspects of human nature, we'd eventually come up with social media.

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Swiss parliament approves new 6 billion franc fighter jet purchase

2019-12-27

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2019-12-27

Before Christmas, Switzerland’s parliament approved the purchase of a new fleet of fighter jets costing CHF 6 billion, according to RTS. The plan, which aims to defend Swiss airspace beyond 2030, has now been approved by both Switzerland’s upper and lower houses.

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FX Daily, December 27: Equities Rally While the Dollar Slumps into the Weekend

2019-12-27

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2019-12-27

Overview:  Equities are finishing the holiday-shortened week on a firm note, encouraged by strong holiday internet sales in the US.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced except China and Thailand, while Japanese markets were mixed after weak industrial output and retail sales.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth consecutive week.

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Number on welfare in Switzerland falls for first time in 10 years

2019-12-27

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2019-12-27

In 2018, the number of people receiving social welfare in Switzerland fell from 278,300, or 3.3% of the population, to 272,700, 3.2% of the population. The last time the number fell was in 2008 when it dropped from 3.1% (233,500) to 2.9% (222,600) of the population.

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Xi To Skip Davos, Collapsing Hopes Of Phase One Deal Signing Event With Trump

2019-12-26

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2019-12-26

If it was The Wall Street Journal or other US financial media outlets, for the last several weeks, pumping headlines via "people familiar with the discussions," about how President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have a phase one trade deal signing event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January. 

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How Today’s Central Bankers Threaten Civilization

2019-12-26

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2019-12-26

When I was asked to write an article about the impact of negative interest rates and negative yielding bonds, I thought it was a chance to look at the topic from a broader perspective. There have been lots of articles speculating about the possible implications and focusing on their impact in the short run, but it’s not very often that an analysis looks a bit further into the future, trying to connect money and its effect on society itself.

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Abolish the Office of the First Lady

2019-12-26

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2019-12-26

It's almost Christmas time again, and that means its time for White House politicians and staff to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on Christmas decorations and events for the White House.

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Credit Suisse: FINMA appoints independent investigator

2019-12-25

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2019-12-25

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA says it will have an independent auditor investigate Swiss bank Credit Suisse “in the context of observation activities”. “The observation activities carried out by Credit Suisse raise various compliance issues,” FINMA said in a statement on Friday evening.

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