Tag Archive: newsletter

De-dollarization By Default Is Not What You Might Think

2020-01-17

by

2020-01-17

CPMI Correspondent Banking Data, 2011-2018
Last month, a group of central bank governors from across the South Pacific region gathered in Australia to move forward the idea of a KYC utility. If you haven’t heard of KYC, or know your customer, it is a growing legal requirement that is being, and has been, imposed on banks all over the world. Spurred by anti-money laundering efforts undertaken first by the European Union, more and more governments are forcing global banks to take part.

Read More »

Dollar Soft Ahead of Retail Sales Data

2020-01-17

by

2020-01-17

There were no surprises in the US-China Phase One trade deal. The dollar is drifting lower ahead of the key retail sales data; there are other minor US data out today. Bank of England credit survey showed demand for loans fell in Q4. Turkey cut its one-week repo rate by 75 bps to 11.25%; South Africa is expected to keep rates steady at 6.5%.

Read More »

Slice of prime Zurich real estate sold on blockchain

2020-01-17

by

2020-01-17

A building on Zurich’s most exclusive shopping street has been converted into a blockchain-powered investment following its CHF130 million ($134 million) sale. It is the latest attempt to unlock the value of bricks and mortar using digitally-coded tokens.

Read More »

US Debt Makes Us Dependent on Petrodollars — and on Saudi Arabia

2020-01-17

by

2020-01-17

The Iranian regime and the Saudi Arabian regime are longtime enemies, with both vying for control of the Persian Gulf region. Part of the conflict stems from religious differences — differences between Shia and Sunni muslim groups. But much of the conflict stems from mundane desires to establish regional dominance.

Read More »

FX Daily, January 16: Markets Look for New Cues with US-China Trade Pact Signed

2020-01-16

by

2020-01-16

Overview: The global capital markets are calm today as investors await fresh trading incentives. New record highs in the US equity indices gave Asia Pacific stocks a lift, though China and Taiwan were notable exceptions. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm new record highs set last week.  US equities are edging higher in Europe. Benchmark bond yields are little changed.

Read More »

EUR/CHF Price Analysis: Attempting corrective bounce amid oversold conditions

2020-01-16

by

2020-01-16

EUR/CHF, Daily chart
EUR/CHF is looking oversold, as per key daily chart indicator. The hourly chart is reporting a triangle breakout. A corrective bounce to the 5-day average hurdle could be in the offing. EUR/CHF is looking to regain some poise from three-year lows reached on Wednesday.

Read More »

Swiss franc climbs after US adds it to ‘manipulation’ watchlist

2020-01-16

by

2020-01-16

The US Treasury has called on the Swiss government to cut taxes and spend more public money, after it added the country to a watchlist of those it accuses of currency manipulation. The Swiss franc nudged up to a near three-year high against the euro on Tuesday as markets anticipated the move would limit the Swiss National Bank’s appetite for aggressive action to try to hold down its currency in future.

Read More »

Fünf Jahre Frankenschock – Wie der SNB-Negativzins die Schweizer Aktienkurse beeinflusst hat

2020-01-16

by

2020-01-16

Nicht eine, sondern zwei Massnahmen erschütterten am 15. Januar 2015 die Schweiz und die internationale Finanzwelt. Der unmittelbare Schock war die Aufhebung der Kursuntergrenze zum Euro, welche die Nationalbank seit 2011 bei 1,20 Franken verteidigt hatte.

Read More »

The History and Structure of the Federal Reserve System

2020-01-16

by

2020-01-16

[This article is part of the Understanding Money Mechanics series, by Robert P. Murphy. The series will be published as a book in late 2020.] This chapter will provide a brief sketch of the historical context in which the Federal Reserve was founded, summarize some of the major changes to the Fed’s institutional structure and mandate over the years, and end with a snapshot of the Fed’s current governing structure.

Read More »

Instability Rising: Why 2020 Will Be Different

2020-01-16

by

2020-01-16

Shares of Gross Domestic Income, 1960-2019
In 2020, increasing monetary and fiscal stimulus will be the equivalent of spraying gasoline on a fire to extinguish it. Economically, the 11 years since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 have been one relatively coherent era of modest growth, rising wealth/income inequality and coordinated central bank stimulus every time a crisis threatened to disrupt the domestic or global economy.

Read More »

Clarida Picks Up Some Data

2020-01-16

by

2020-01-16

China Exports, 2006-2019
I should know better than to make declarative all-or-none statements like this. I said there isn’t any data which comports with the idea of a global turnaround, this shakeup in sentiment which since early September has gone right from one extreme to the other. Recession fears predominated in summer only to be (rather easily) replaced by near euphoria (again).

Read More »

FX Daily, January 15: Phase 1 Trade Deal Shifts Terrain of US-China Rivalry

2020-01-15

by

2020-01-15

News that US tariffs on China will remain until through at least the November US election and continued US attempts to stymie China (e.g., more curbs on Huawei under consideration and stepped up efforts to force it to cut subsidies to business) have taken some momentum from the push into risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance today, with only Australian equities among the large regional markets able to sustain upticks. 

Read More »

EUR/CHF: Franc at 33-month high five years after SNB removed the cap

2020-01-15

by

2020-01-15

Technical levels
EUR/CHF is trading at 33-month lows near 1.0759. The US added Switzerland to its current manipulators' list. The SNB removed the cap on the euro on Jan. 15, 2015. Five years after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the financial markets by abandoning the euro cap, the Swiss Franc is trading at 33-month highs against the single currency. 

Read More »

US places Switzerland on trade ‘watch list’

2020-01-15

by

2020-01-15

The US Treasury Department has put Switzerland back on a biannual list of countries that are under observation because of large trade surpluses with the United States. Switzerland was previously included on the Monitoring List between October 2016 and October 2018, “having a material current account surplus and engaged in persistent, one-sided intervention in the foreign exchange market”.

Read More »

Signatures collected for vote on tax deduction for parents

2020-01-15

by

2020-01-15

Opponents of a proposal to increase tax deductions for parents have succeeded in collecting enough signatures to force a referendum on the subject. On Tuesday the leftwing Social Democratic Party submitted the necessary signatures required to trigger a referendum. The party is opposed to a “tax bonus for rich parents” and collected 60,000 signatures in two-and-a-half months to force a nationwide vote on the reform, approved by...

Read More »

The Many Ways Governments Create Monopolies

2020-01-15

by

2020-01-15

[From Power and Market, Chapter 3.] Instead of making the product prohibition absolute, the government may prohibit production and sale except by a certain firm or firms. These firms are then specially privileged by the government to engage in a line of production, and therefore this type of prohibition is a grant of special privilege. If the grant is to one person or firm, it is a monopoly grant; if to several persons or firms, it is a...

Read More »

Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

2020-01-15

by

2020-01-15

Household Survey: Civilian Employment, 2017-2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the BLS asks households who in them is working whereas the more closely scrutinized...

Read More »

Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

2020-01-15

by

2020-01-15

FX Report
The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report no longer considers China a currency manipulator. The underlying message is that the Trump administration will continue to use an ad hoc “carrot and stick” approach to improve US access to the domestic markets of its major trading partners.

Read More »

Will a Credit Crisis Threaten Boris’s 2020 Brexit Plans?

2020-01-15

by

2020-01-15

Boris and the Conservatives won the General Election with a very good majority. In truth, opposition parties stood little chance of success against the Tory strategists, who controlled the narrative despite a hostile media. At the centre of their slick operation was Dominic Cummings, who masterminded the Brexit leave vote, winning the referendum against all the betting in 2016.

Read More »