Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, August 5: China Strikes Back

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

Overview:  Chinese officials took the US tariff hike quietly last week but struck back today.  The PBOC fixed the dollar higher (CNY6.90), which it has not done, and will halt imports of US agriculture. The dollar shot through CNY7.0 to finish the mainland session a little above CNY7.03 and CNH7.07 for the offshore yuan. 

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FX Weekly Preview: The Dog Days of August are Upon Us

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

The die is cast. To defend the uneven expansion and ward off disinflationary forces, monetary authorities will provide more accommodation. The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in more than a decade and stopped unwinding its balance sheet two months earlier than it previously indicated (worth $100 bln of additional buying of Treasuries and Agencies).

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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2019: 0.7 percent Nominal and 0.7 percent Real

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, June 2019
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.7% in nominal terms in June 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 0.7% in June 2019 compared with the previous year.

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August Monthly

2019-08-04

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2019-08-04

After falling against all the major currencies in June, the US dollar rebounded in July. The Dollar Index finished the month at new two-year highs with the Fed’s suggestion it was engaged in a mid-course correction rather than a sustained easing cycle. The dollar also appeared buoyed by the extent of the dovishness by the ECB and the heightened risks that the UK leaves the EU at the end of October without an agreement.

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Switzerland has highest underemployment in Europe

2019-08-04

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2019-08-04

In 2018, 830,000 people in Switzerland were unable to find the work they wanted, according the Federal Statistical Office. While 243,000 were looking but not immediately available and 231,000 were unemployed, most (356,000) were underemployed – working but unable to find as many hours of work as they’d like.

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Brexit Update

2019-08-03

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2019-08-03

The October 31 deadline for the UK to leave the EU is less than 100 days away.  The new Prime Minister is beginning to convince others that that UK will, in fact, leave at the end of October.   PredictIt.Org shows the odds of the UK leaving has risen to almost 50% from about a 33% chance a month ago.   Here is a summary of where the situation stands and some key dates going forward. 

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Swiss apprenticeships – too many places, not enough takers

2019-08-03

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2019-08-03

Figures on unfilled apprenticeship places show the difficulty of matching supply and demand in the labour market. This year there were 12,000 unfilled apprenticeship positions in Switzerland. Switzerland’s apprenticeship model, which helps match workers’ skills with employer demand, is one driver of Switzerland’s low unemployment (4.9%) – 2018 ILO basis.

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After Fed Disappoints, Will Trump Initiate Currency Intervention?

2019-08-03

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2019-08-03

Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated. The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.

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FX Daily, August 2: End of Tariff Truce Trumps Jobs

2019-08-02

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2019-08-02

Overview: The market was finding its sea legs after being hit with wave and counter-wave following the FOMC decision, and more importantly, Powell's attempt to give insight into the Fed's thinking. Trump's tweet than signaled an end to the tariff truce with a 10% levy on the $300 bln of imports from China that have not been subject to action previously.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2019: +0.3 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM

2019-08-02

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2019-08-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, July 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.5% in July 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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UBS To Start Charging Rich Clients With Negative 0.75 percent Interest Rate

2019-08-02

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2019-08-02

For years, European banks were leery of passing on the ECB's negative -0.40% deposit rate to their clients for fears of deposit flight and other unintended consequences, in the process being forced to "eat" the difference and impacting their interest income.

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Glencore suffers $350m hit as cobalt prices decline

2019-08-02

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2019-08-02

Glencore has taken a $350 million hit because of falling cobalt prices as the problems facing its African copper business continue to pile up. The Switzerland-based miner and commodity trader has been grappling with a string of issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where it operates two copper mines, and in Zambia, where it owns another asset.

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FX Daily, August 1: Mid-Course Correction Sends Greenback Higher

2019-08-01

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2019-08-01

Overview:  The Federal Reserve delivered the first rate cut since the Great Financial Crisis but couched it in terms of a mid-course correction rather than the start of a larger easing cycle.  By doing so, Fed chief Powell cast the cut in less dovish terms than the market expected and the reaction function of the market has been clear. 

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DATA ADDS TO THE CASE FOR ECB ACTION IN SEPTEMBER

2019-08-01

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2019-08-01

Euro Area Real GDP Growth, 2013-2019
Slowing economic momentum in the euro area means that we are lowering our GDP forecasts for this year. The euro area economy grew by 0.2% q-o-q in Q2, down from 0.4% in Q1.While 0.2% is still a decent pace of growth, concerns about the economy in the second half of the year have increased. Recent data have shown that the industrial slump has started to leave some marks on the domestic economy.

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Nestlé invests CHF99 million in factory expansion in Indonesia

2019-08-01

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2019-08-01

The Swiss food giant has announced plans to invest CHF99 million (around $100 million) to expand three factories in Indonesia. The goal is to increase Nestlé’s production capacity in the country by 25%, according to a company announcement on Wednesday.

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FX Daily, July 31: Sterling Steadies, Attention Shifts to FOMC

2019-07-31

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2019-07-31

Overview: After a shellacking in recent days, sterling has stabilized though there is not much of a bounce to speak of, suggesting the adjustment to the risk of a no-deal Brexit may not be complete. After the S&P 500 posted back-to-back declines, Asia Pacific equities struggled. Hong Kong shares led the regional decline.

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SNB reports a profit of CHF 38.5 billion for the first half of 2019.

2019-07-31

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2019-07-31

SNB Profit and Loss since 1999
The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 38.5 billion for the first half of 2019. The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 33.8 billion. A valuation gain of CHF 3.8 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.1 billion. The SNB’s financial result depends largely on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and capital markets.

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Main Street Small Business on the Precipice

2019-07-31

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2019-07-31

Startups as Share of all Businesses, 1979 - 2014
As a generality, the average employee (including financial pundits) has no real experience or understanding of what it takes to start and operate a small business in the U.S. Government employees in the agencies that oversee and enforce regulations on small businesses also generally lack any experience in the businesses they regulate.

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Switzerland’s first integrated crypto asset exchange launched

2019-07-31

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2019-07-31

Smart Valor, the country’s first integrated cryptocurrency exchange offering custody, trading and brokerage, has gone live with nine crypto-fiat trading pairs. The assets on Zug-based platform, that was launched in 2017 as part of the Thomson Reuters Incubator, includes crypto currencies and security tokens.

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FX Daily, July 30: Sterling Pounded

2019-07-30

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2019-07-30

Overview:  The prospect of a no-deal Brexit continues to pound sterling lower.  A little more than two months ago, it was testing $1.32.  Two weeks ago it was around $1.25.  Today it traded near $1.2120 before stabilizing.  On the other hand, the 10-year Gilt yield is below 65 bp, a new multiyear low, while the international-laden FTSE 100 is holding its own in the face of heavier equity prices in Europe.

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