Tag Archive: newsletter

Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News

2018-08-25

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2018-08-25

Dollar Cycles General, June 2018
At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more.

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The secrets of the new 200 Swiss franc note

2018-08-24

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2018-08-24

Franc Swiss note
Switzerland began updating its notes starting with the 50 franc note in April 2016. It then issued the new 20 franc note in May 2017, and the new 10 in October 2017. The newest note to grace Swiss wallets, pockets and purses is the 200 franc note, which was launched on 22 August 2018.

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Euro Area PMIs: Still Little Good News Below the Surface

2018-08-24

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2018-08-24

Composite PMIs Germany, France and Eurozone, 2015 - 2018
Although euro area flash PMI indices were roughly in line with expectations in August, some details were less positive than the headline numbers, suggesting that downside risks have not yet disappeared. True, at face value, the small rise in the euro area composite PMI index, from 54.3 in July to 54.4 in August, is consistent with resilient real GDP growth, close to the 0.4% q-o-q pace recorded in Q2.

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FX Daily, August 24: Greenback Marks Time Ahead of Powell

2018-08-24

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2018-08-24

The US dollar is paring some of yesterday's gains in quiet turnover ahead of Fed Chief Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the week's last highlight. The euro and sterling are trading inside yesterday's ranges, which the dollar has extended its gains against the yen to reach a two-week high near JPY111.50.

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Swiss back at the top in small arms trade transparency

2018-08-24

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2018-08-24

Switzerland has come out top in a ranking about the world’s most transparent small arms exporters. With a score of 21.75 out of a possible 25 points, Switzerland came first ahead of the Netherlands, Britain, Italy and Serbia, according to the 2018 Transparency Barometerexternal link, published on Wednesday.

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How “Wealthy” Would We Be If We Stopped Borrowing Trillions Every Year?

2018-08-24

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2018-08-24

US Total Credit Market Debt
These charts reflect a linear system that is wobbling into the first stages of non-linear destabilization. The widespread presumption is the U.S. is wealthy beyond words, and will remain so as far as the eye can see: wealthy enough to fund trillion-dollar weapons systems, trillion-dollar endless wars, multi-trillion dollar Medicare for all, multi-trillion dollar Universal Basic Income, and so on, in an endless profusion of endless trillions....

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Swiss Bank Freezes $5 Billion In Russian Money

2018-08-23

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2018-08-23

USD/RUB, Monthly Jul 2018 - Aug 2018
For years, Russian oligarchs and robber barons seeking to park their "unsourced" capital offshore and away from the sticky fingers of the Kremlin, treated Swiss bank accounts (preferably anonymous) with their "no questions asked" customer policies as, well, Swiss bank accounts.

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Credit Suisse freezes $5 billion in US-Russia sanctions move

2018-08-23

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2018-08-23

The Swiss Credit Suisse bank froze some CHF5 billion ($5 billion) of assets linked to Russia earlier this year in an effort to toe the line with US sanctions levied against Moscow. The bank froze the funds in the second quarter of 2018, according to Reuters, in response to sanctions introduced by Washington in April.

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FX Daily, August 23: Dollar Rebounds

2018-08-23

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2018-08-23

After correcting lower since the middle of last week, and pushed faster if not further by President Trump's comments, the US dollar is rebounding against most of the major and emerging market currencies today. After an initial wobble on the back of the FOMC minutes, the greenback's recovery began in earnest.

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Three Things that may Disappoint Investors

2018-08-23

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2018-08-23

There are three areas that we suspect that many investors are vulnerable to disappointment. NAFTA, trade talks with China, and Powell speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. With problems elsewhere, the Trump Administration has been playing up the likelihood of an agreement as early as today with Mexico, which would be used, apparently to deliver a fait accompli to Canada.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August

2018-08-23

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2018-08-23

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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SNB banknote app updated for new 200-franc note

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

The Swiss National Bank’s ‘Swiss Banknotes’ app is designed to help the public familiarise themselves with the new banknotes. The popular app, which has been downloaded some 100,000 times, now also showcases the new 200-franc note. It can be downloaded free of charge from the Apple (itunes.apple.com) and Google Play (play.google.com) app stores.

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Or suisse: M Villiger a mené la politique nécessaire au bradage des années 2000. Vincent Held

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

Le 1er mai de l’an 2000, la Banque nationale suisse démarrait la vente de quelque 1’300 tonnes d’or à des prix historiquement bas. Le jour suivant le début de cette grande braderie, la BNS expliquera que tout ceci se déroulait dans le cadre d’un « accord sur l’or » conclu avec « 15 banques centrales européennes ».

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FX Daily, August 22: Markets Take US Political Developments in Stride

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

News that President Trump's personal lawyer claimed he was instructed by the candidate to commit a federal crime and, separately, his the former campaign manager was found guilty on eight counts is hardly impacting the global capital markets.

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Swiss Trade Balance July 2018: Slowdown to a High Level

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

Switzerland Trade Balance, July 2018
After stagnating the previous month, both exports and imports fell in July 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, they fell by 3.0 and 2.8%, respectively. The decline in the chemicals-pharmaceuticals sector weighed on the result in both directions of the traffic. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 1.2 billion francs.

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Submerged Lighthouse Syndrome – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

Island Light
Last week, the lighthouse went down 24 meters (gold went down $24), or 50 inches (if you prefer, silver went down 50 cents). However, let’s take a look at the only true picture of supply and demand. Are the fundamentals dropping with the market price?

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Cool Video: Bloomberg TV Clip-Dollar Developments

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

Bloomberg Cool Video
The US dollar was sliding as I joined Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on the Bloomberg Markets show. I tried making the case, as I have in recent posts, that the dollar's rally in the first half of the month had left it over-extended. Most of the major currencies were outside of their Bollinger Bands a week ago and had begun correcting since August 15.

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Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders Top in Dollar Index

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

This Great Graphic depicts what appears to be a head and shoulders top in the hourly bar chart of the Dollar Index. The neckline is found near 96.00 and rotating the pattern along it produces a measuring objective near 95.00. The bearish pattern was formed in the last few days, and the Dollar Index was resting near the neckline before Trump's comments gave it the push.

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FX Daily, August 21: Trump Comments Hit Dollar, Little Impact on Rates

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

The US dollar is broadly lower following President Trump's comments yesterday, criticising Fed policy and reiterating his previously made claim that China and the EU are manipulating their currencies. We suggested that last week's presidential tweet that identified strong capital inflows into the US may not have been written by President Trump.

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A trying time for euro

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

EUR/USD vs. EA - US growth differential as % (with AA&MR projections)
The euro has hit new lows against the US dollar. We are revising down our EUR/USD projections for the next few months.The euro broke to the downside from its tight trading range relative to the US dollar since the end of May. These new lows go against our expectations of a gradual appreciation of the single currency relative to the greenback in the second half of the year and indicate that we have underestimated the short-term risks related to the...

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