Tag Archive: newsletter

Business Indicators Present a Contrasting Picture of the Euro Area

2018-09-24

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2018-09-24

Eurozone Composite PMI and Euro Area Real GDP, 2000 - 2018
Euro area flash composite PMI dipped slightly to in September and came in slightly below consensus expectations. Activity in services picked up and weakened further in manufacturing, which continued its decline since the start of the year, falling to 53.3 in September from 54.6 in August. New export orders failed to grow for the first time since June 2013.

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Thousands demonstrate in Bern for equal pay

2018-09-24

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2018-09-24

A national rally in favour of equal pay and against discrimination has taken place in the Swiss capital, attracting some 20,000 people, according to organisers. Unions, political parties and supporting organisations said in the run-up to the rally on Saturday that although equality was enshrined in the constitution 37 years ago and the law had been in force for 22 years, even today power and money are distributed differently among women and men.

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FX Weekly Preview: Next Week’s Drivers

2018-09-24

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2018-09-24

It is a testament to the Federal Reserves communication and the evolution of investors' understanding that we can say that the rate hike that the central bank will deliver is not as important as what it says. A rate hike is a foregone conclusion. According to the CME's model, there is about an 85% chance of December hike discounted as well.

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The Four Disastrous Presidential Policies That Are Destroying the Nation

2018-09-24

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2018-09-24

Bank Consolidation
It's admittedly a tough task to select the four most disastrous presidential policies of the past 60 years, given the great multitude to choose from. Here are my top choices and the reasons why I selected these from a wealth of policy disasters.

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Cut to Swiss inflation forecast

2018-09-23

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2018-09-23

Swiss Monetary Policy, 2005 - 2018
The Swiss National Bank has revised down its medium-term forecast for consumer inflation. We still expect a first SNB rate hike in September 2019. At the end of its quarterly monetary assessment meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its main policy rates unchanged.

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Swiss CEOs still the best-off in Europe

2018-09-23

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2018-09-23

A report on the salaries of CEOs across Europe has found that Switzerland once again tops the table, ahead of Great Britain and Germany. The report also discovers that salaries have risen over the past year.

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When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally End?

2018-09-23

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2018-09-23

S-curved of Rapid Expansion
Credit bubbles are not engines of sustainable employment, they are only engines of malinvestment and wealth destruction on a grand scale. We all know the Status Quo's response to the global financial meltdown of 2008 has been a travesty of a mockery of a sham--smoke and mirrors, flimsy facades of "recovery," simulacrum "reforms," serial bubble-blowing and politically expedient can-kicking, all based on borrowing and printing trillions of dollars,...

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Swiss investors launch $100m blockchain start-up factory

2018-09-22

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2018-09-22

A consortium of Swiss investors has launched a private equity vehicle that aims to collect up to $100 million with the long-term goal of getting 1,000 blockchain companies off the ground internationally every year. The Swiss company Crypto Valley Venture Capital (CV VC) launched its initial “Genesis Hub” incubator in Zug, home to Switzerland’s Crypto Valley, on Thursday.

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Portfolio Re-Balancing and the Dollar

2018-09-22

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2018-09-22

Boosted by tax reform, deregulation, and strong earnings growth, US equities have motored ahead, leaving other benchmarks far behind. As the Great Graphic here shows, most of the other benchmarks are lower on the year. The S&P 500 (yellow line) is up 8.8% for the year before the new record highs seeing seen now, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 from Europe (purple line) is still off 1.7%.

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Italian material deprivation rates still the worst among large euro area economies

2018-09-22

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2018-09-22

Latest poverty figures provide government with an argument for fiscal stumulus.Severe material deprivation rates gauge the proportion of people whose living conditions are severely affected by a lack of resources. According to Eurostat, “it represents the proportion of people living in households that cannot afford at least four of the following nine items: mortgage or rent payments, utility bills, hire purchase instalments or other loan payments;...

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Le Conseil fédéral se moque des personnes âgées!

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

Le Conseil fédéral se distingue par 2 points tout compte fait complémentaires. Le premier est son soutien indéfectible à la politique expansionniste et ruineuse de la BNS, dont il a la responsabilité au plan constitutionnel. Celle-ci mobilise les richesses du pays, puis les convertit en monnaies étrangères, pour enfin les investir dans des actifs plus ou moins pourris, plus ou moins risqués, voire plus ou moins condamnés.

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FX Daily, September 20: The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

Sometimes the dollar is the key mover, but sometimes, like today, it seems to be the fulcrum, reflecting disparate moves among other currencies.  While the euro is at two-month highs, the yen is near two-month lows.   The euro is bouncing off two-month lows and the 100-day moving average against sterling.   Most emerging market currencies are advancing against the dollar today. 

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Contrasting Fortunes within the Euro Area

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

Euro Area Average Growth
The four biggest euro area economies slowed in H1 2018 due to a number of factors, including weak exports. We expect a rebound in H2—except in Italy, where political uncertainty has been denting business confidence. Forward indicators show that Italy is the only of the four major euro area economies to face weaknesses both in export-led manufacturing and services, due domestic political uncertainties (including the upcoming state budget) as well as...

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Commodity Trading Consortium Launches Blockchain Platform

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

A consortium of commodities traders, banks and the world’s largest goods inspection company have joined forces to launch a blockchain platform in Switzerland, which is intended to ease the administrative burden of shifting oil, grain and other products around the world.

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Trump’s Backdoor Power Play to Rein In the Fed

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

“Just run the presses – print money.” That’s what President Donald Trump supposedly instructed his former chief economic adviser Gary Cohn to do in response to the budget deficit. The quote appears in Bob Woodward’s controversial book Fear: Trump in the White House.

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Das Bad im Geldhaufen

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank hält die Schleusen im Kampf gegen die Frankenstärke weiterhin offen. Dies macht die Zentralbank indes zunehmend anfällig für politische Einflussnahme und Begehrlichkeiten. Als Carl Barks nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg die Comicfigur Dagobert Duck erschuf, dachte er kaum an die Schweiz.

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Monetary Policy Assessment of 20 September 2018

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

SNB Switzerland Conditional Inflation Forecast
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.

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Swiss Trade Balance August 2018: Exports above the 18 billion Franc Mark

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

Switzerland Trade Balance, August 2018
After the dynamism registered until May 2018, Swiss foreign trade has been stalled since. In August and after seasonal adjustment, exports stagnated at a high level and imports fell by 1.1%. The trade balance has a surplus of 1.4 billion francs.

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Clariant announces strategic overhaul with Saudi partner

2018-09-20

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2018-09-20

Swiss specialty chemical maker Clariant has signed a memorandum of understanding to enter into a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabian firm SABIC. This will result in a major restructuring of the company along with changes in management and the board of directors. On Tuesday, Clariant said the collaboration will see the merger of units from both companies into a new High Performance Materials division.

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