Tag Archive: newsletter

Raiffeisen Switzerland bank to cut 200 jobs

2019-04-06

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2019-04-06

Switzerland’s third-largest bank says it will cut up to 200 jobs to save CHF100 million ($100 million) this year. Raiffeisen is reorganising and undertaking a cost-cutting programme. This follows a recent fraud allegation scandal involving its former chief executive.

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Steep drop in thefts in Switzerland

2019-04-06

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2019-04-06

Comparing 2018 to 2012, thefts in Switzerland fell by nearly half, according to the Federal Statistical Office. In 2012, there were a record 219,000 thefts recorded in Switzerland. By 2018, the figure had fallen to 112,000, a drop of 49%.

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The Japanification of the World

2019-04-06

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2019-04-06

Japan Government interest payments % of revenue, 1972-2014
Zombification / Japanification is not success; it is only the last desperate defense of a failing, brittle status quo by doing more of what's failed. A recent theme in the financial media is the Japanification of Europe. Japanification refers to a set of economic and financial conditions that have come to characterize Japan's economy over the past 28 years: persistent stagnation and deflation, a low-growth and low-inflation economy, very loose...

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FX Daily, April 05: Trade Talk and German Industrial Output Lifts Sentiment

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

Overview:  Comments by Chinese President Xi, recognizing substantial progress in trade, helped boost sentiment after the US-China negotiators failed to set a date for the meeting between the two presidents.  Although we have argued that the German economy may be past the worst, the sharp drop in factory orders spooked investors.

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Are the Rise of Social Media and the Decline of Social Mobility Related?

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

Time Spent with Digital Media, 2008-2015
Social media offers hope of achieving higher online social status without having to succeed financially in a winner-take-most economy. I've often addressed the decline of social mobility and the addictive nature of social media, and recently I've entertained the crazy notion that the two dynamics are related. Why Is Social Media So Toxic?

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Swiss likely to vote on capital tax reform plan

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

The leftwing Young Socialist group has handed in the necessary signatures to force a nationwide vote on its proposal to increase tax on capital revenue in Switzerland. The initiative intends to tax dividends and interest on wealth by a factor of 1.5 compared with regular income tax.

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Oil prices supported by OPEC+ cuts…before market risks being flooded again

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

World Oil Demand, 2019-2024
Increased US export capacity would probably force OPEC+ to change its current tactics.After last year’s collapse, oil prices have found support since the beginning of this year for several reasons. At this stage, the main question is whether the recent surge in prices is sustainable or whether we will see renewed oil price volatility, with the possibility of a repeat of 2018.

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FX Daily, April 04: Limited Price Action Does not Do Justice to Macro Developments

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued despite several macro developments.  The US and China may announce as early as today when the two presidents will meet to ostensibly sign a trade deal, while House of Commons effort to block a no-deal exit goes to the House of Lords today.  India cut interest rates by 25 bp, the second consecutive cut. 

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Q&A on European Parliament elections

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

European Institutions
European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament's limited ability to set Brussels' agenda.European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their respective national governments. 

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Typisch Mensch: Man überschätzt sich

2019-04-04

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Wenn allzu menschliche Eigenschaften das Verhalten an den Finanzmärkten prägen: Der Overconfidence Bias

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IMF predicts Swiss growth to slow to 1.1percent in 2019

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

The Swiss economy is likely to slow in 2019, with gross domestic product growth expected to hit 1.1%, followed by a “moderate” recovery in 2020, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. The IMF said in a concluding statement, published on Monday following a mission to Switzerland and an annual evaluation, that a “sustained regional slowdown, intensification of global trade tensions and a disruptive Brexit” would adversely affect the Swiss...

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Retail Sales In Bad Company, Decouple from Decoupling

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

Retail Sales, NSA 2011-2018
In a way, the government shutdown couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment. As workers all throughout the sprawling bureaucracy were furloughed, markets had run into chaos. Even the seemingly invincible stock market was pummeled, a technical bear market emerged on Wall Street as people began to really consider increasingly loud economic risks.

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Phugoid Dollar Funding

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

Money Markets Equivalents 2014-2019
On August 12, 1985, Japan Airways flight 123 left Tokyo’s Haneda Airport on its way to a scheduled arrival in Osaka. Twelve minutes into the flight, the aircraft, a Boeing 747, suffered catastrophic failure when an aft pressure bulkhead burst.

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FX Daily, April 03: Optimism Sweeps Through the Capital Markets

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

Overview: Japan announced the name of the new era that begins May 1 and a new emperor.  The connotation is of beautiful harmony.  And investors have taken the bit and run with it.  Optimism that the US and China near reaching an agreement on trade. China and Europe have reported better than expected PMIs today. 

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Stadler lands $600 million order in the US

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

Swiss railway vehicle manufacturer Stadler Rail has won a $600 million (CHF597 million) order in the United States. The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTAexternal link) on Friday announced its decision to award Stadlerexternal link the contract for 127 Metro (underground) trains with two options of 25 additional trains each.

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Cool Video: Fed’s Independence Challenged and Defended

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

Marc Chandler talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy
I was on the set Fox Business set this afternoon talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy. Payne suggested that both the political left and right are trying to politicize the Federal Reserve to print money for their favorite programs.

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The Hidden Cost of Losing Local Mom and Pop Businesses

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

American Dynamism in Retreat 1979-2014
What cannot be replaced by corporate chains is neighborhood character and variety. There is much more to this article than first meets the eye: In a Tokyo neighborhood's last sushi restaurant, a sense of loss "Eiraku is the last surviving sushi bar in this cluttered neighborhood of steep cobblestoned hills and cherry trees unseen on most tourist maps of Tokyo.

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Will Basel III Send Gold to the Moon, Report 2 Apr

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

Gold and Silver Price
A number of commentators have predicted that the rules of the Basel III bank regulations will cause gold to skyrocket (no, this article is not about our view that gold does not go up, that it’s the dollar going down, that the lighthouse does not go up, it’s the sinking ship going down in the storm).

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FX Daily, April 02: Herding Cats

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

After surging yesterday, equities are struggling to maintain the momentum that carried that S&P 500 to its best level since last October. Most Asia Pacific equity markets advanced. Japan's small losses were a notable exception. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has advanced in four of the last five sessions and is little changed, while US shares are trading with a heavier bias.

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GBP to CHF weakness after no majority for alternative Brexit

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate still struggles to push higher amidst global uncertainty and the pressing issue of Brexit. The Swiss franc maintains the higher ground with its safe haven status amidst concerns of a global slowdown, the effects of which are already being seen across China and the EU.

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