Tag Archive: newsletter

Coloring One Green Shoot

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

China Retail Sales, 2010-2018
China’s Passenger Car Association reported last week that retail sales of various vehicles totaled 1.78 million units in March 2019. The total was 12% less than the number of automobiles sold in March 2018. This matches the government’s data, both sets very clear as to when Chinese economic struggles accelerated: May 2018.

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FX Daily, April 15: Redemption Monday

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start. The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today. Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore moved lower.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Super Cycle Revisited

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

In the big picture, we argue that the dollar’s appreciation is part of the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods. The first was the Reagan-Volcker dollar rally, spurred by a policy mix of tight monetary and loose fiscal policies.

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SNB-Aktie: Goldgrube oder Fettnäpfchen?

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

Das Bundesgesetz über die Nationalbank (Nationalbankgesetz, NBG) besagt in Artikel 25: „Das Aktienkapital der Nationalbank beträgt 25 Millionen Franken. Es ist eingeteilt in 100’000 Namenaktien mit einem Nennwert von je 250 Franken. Die Aktien sind vollständig liberiert.“ Und in Artikel 31 Absatz 1 steht: „Vom Bilanzgewinn wird eine Dividende von höchstens 6 Prozent des Aktienkapitals ausgerichtet.“

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No Fix for Recession: Without a Financial Crisis, There’s No Central Bank Policy Fix

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 2004-2018
There are no extreme "fixes" to secular declines in sales, profits, employment, tax revenues and asset prices. The saying "never let a crisis go to waste" embodies several truths worth pondering as the stock market nears new highs. One truth is that extreme policies that would raise objections in typical times can be swept into law in the "we have to do something" panic of a crisis.

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Switzerland: Lower growth, lower inflation

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

Swiss Quarterly GDP Growth, 2007-2018
Growth and price rises should moderate in 2019.The Swiss economy posted impressive GDP growth in 2018, although there was significant divergence between strong growth in the first half and stagnation in the second. Overall, we expect Swiss GDP to expand by 1.3% in 2019, down substantially from 2.5% in 2018. Risks to our growth outlook for Switzerland are tilted to the downside.

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Holiday traffic jams build at Gotthard tunnel

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

The start of the Easter holidays in many Swiss cantons is causing long tailbacks at the Gotthard tunnel in central Switzerland, with waits of more than two hours at the northern end. Just before midday on Saturday, the traffic queue to enter the tunnel going south stretched for 14 kilometres, according to the Touring Club of Switzerland (TCS). There was also a two-kilometre tailback at the southern end.

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Swiss unemployment above northern european average

2019-04-14

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2019-04-14

Switzerland is often assumed to have low unemployment. However, there are many countries in Europe with lower rates. There are several ways to measure unemployment. The official measure in Switzerland is focused on those officially registered as unemployed still collecting unemployment benefits, a measure that delivers a lower figure than the one calculated by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

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Swiss test finds toxic substances in e-cigarettes

2019-04-14

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2019-04-14

Testing commissioned by Blue Cross, a Swiss organisation focused on helping those with addictions, found toxic substances in the Iqos electronic cigarette produced by Philip Morris, according to the newspaper 20 Minutes.

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Assange and the Unforgivable Sin of Disemboweling Official Narratives

2019-04-14

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2019-04-14

S-Curve of Expansion, Maturation, Stagnation and Collapse
There is really only one unforgivable sin in the political realm, and that's destroying the official narrative by revealing the facts of the matter. This is why whistleblowers who make public the secret machinery of the elaborately artful lies underpinning all official narratives are hounded to the ends of the Earth.

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Blind Faith vs. the Bottom Line

2019-04-13

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2019-04-13

Dow Jones Industrial Valuation 1984-2016
There is more than a little "let them eat brioche" in the blind faith that the masses' patience for pillage is infinite. We've reached an interesting moment in history where we each have a simple choice: we either go with blind faith or we go with the bottom line, i.e. the facts of the matter. So far, 2019 is the year of Blind Faith, as the charts below illustrate: the bottom line no longer matters.

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Swisscom forges ahead with 5G amid safety fears

2019-04-13

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2019-04-13

Telecoms operator Swisscom says it plans to cover 90% of Switzerland with “5G” fifth-generation mobile communications by the end of this year. “As soon as we have the concession for the new mobile frequencies, we will activate our networks,” Swisscom director Urs Schaeppi told the media on Wednesday. The networks were put in place in partnership with Swedish telecoms company Ericsson.

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Monthly Macro Chart Review – April 2019 (VIDEO)

2019-04-13

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2019-04-13

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the charts from the past month and what they indicate.

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FX Daily, April 12: Euro Bid Above $1.13 for the First Time this Month

2019-04-12

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2019-04-12

Overview:  The consolidative week in the capital markets is drawing to a close.  Equity markets are narrowly mixed.  In Asia, most indices outside of the greater China (China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) edged higher, leaving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slightly lower on the week.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index snapped a ten-day rally yesterday and is little changed so far today. 

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Medical funding from big pharma continues apace

2019-04-12

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2019-04-12

An investigative report by a group of Swiss newspapers has revealed the extent to which pharmaceutical companies are funding hospitals, doctors, and medical centres in the country. CHF458 million ($456.5 million): this was the amount paid by the 60 pharma companies based in Switzerland to various arms of the medical profession between 2015 and 2017, according to a report by the Beobachter, Handelszeitung, Blick, and Le Temps newspapers.

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Limited room for Swiss franc depreciation

2019-04-12

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2019-04-12

Swiss Goods & Services, Investment and Reserve Assets
Even should global economic momentum stabilise in the coming months and political risks abate, the franc still has important structural underpinnings.The Swiss franc has been supported by a structural current account surplus and by reduced investment flows out of Switzerland since the 2008 financial crisis. In addition, the decline in global yields since the Fed’s dovish shift early this year has rendered interest rate differentials less...

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Why 2011

2019-04-12

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2019-04-12

TIC - US Banking Data 1979-2019
The eurodollar era saw not one but two credit bubbles. The first has been studied to death, though almost always getting it wrong. The Great Financial Crisis has been laid at the doorstep of subprime, a bunch of greedy Wall Street bankers insufficiently regulated to have not known any better. That was just a symptom of the first. The housing bubble itself was more than housing.

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Debt and Profit in Russell 2000 Firms

2019-04-12

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2019-04-12

U.S. small-cap debt builds up
This week, the Supply and Demand Report featured a graph of debt vs profitability in the Russell 2000. Here’s the graph again: This graph shows a theme that we, and practically no one else(!) have been discussing for years. It is the diminishing marginal utility of debt. In this case, more and more debt is required to add what looks like less and less profit (we don’t have the raw data, only the graphic).

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More Swiss bankruptcies in 2018 than ever before

2019-04-11

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2019-04-11

Last year saw a record number of bankruptcy procedures opened in Switzerland, with almost 14,000 cases involving bust businesses and individuals. The record numbers, released on Thursday by the Federal Statistical Office, mark a 5.4% increase on 2017 and translate to overall financial losses of some CHF2 billion ($2 billion).

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FX Daily, April 11: Market Yawns at Latest Brexit Extension

2019-04-11

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2019-04-11

The S&P 500 closed higher yesterday for the ninth session in the past ten, but the coattails are short and global equities are trading with a heavier bias today. A firm CPI reading in China took a toll local shares with the Shanghai Composite, shedding 1.6%, the most in more than two weeks. European bourses are mostly in the red.

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