Tag Archive: newsletter

Monthly Macro Monitor: We’re Not There Yet

2019-07-21

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2019-07-21

US High Yield Master 2000-2015
I first wrote about the current economic slowdown a year ago and Jeff Snider actually started seeing signs of slowdown in the Eurodollar market as early as May 2018. So, the slowdown we’re in now certainly isn’t a surprise here at Alhambra. I think though that we often forget how long these things take to develop.

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Globally Synchronized, After All

2019-07-20

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2019-07-20

Retail Sales (ex Autos), NSA 1993-2019
For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered.

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Retirement age to rise for women in Switzerland

2019-07-20

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2019-07-20

The Swiss government has been looking at measures to shore up the finances of Switzerland’s pension system for some time. The difference between the official retirement age for women (64) and men (65) is an obvious target.

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Monetary Metals Don’t Need a “Gold Standard” Proxy System

2019-07-20

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2019-07-20

President Trump moved recently to nominate an avowed sound money advocate, Judy Shelton, to the Federal Reserve Board. That triggered a flurry of superficial and derisive references in the controlled media to Shelton’s past support of a gold standard.

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FX Daily, July 19: Dollar Pares Losses as Market Partly Corrects Confusion of Magntiude and Timing of Fed

2019-07-19

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2019-07-19

Overview: Comments underscoring the importance of acting preemptively by two Fed officials sent the dollar reeling and helped lift equities after the S&P fell to a two and a half week low. The decline in rates and the US shooting down of an Iranian drone in the Gulf helped spur gold to new six-year highs. There was some attempt to clarify the (NY Fed's) comments and the dollar has pared yesterday's losses.

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Euro area manufacturing is not out of the woods

2019-07-19

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2019-07-19

Euro Area Industrial Production, MoM 2019
Industrial production rebounded in May. But a closer look shows that the improvement was narrowly spread, and euro area manufacturing faces numerous challenges ahead.After two consecutive months of contraction, euro area industrial production (IP, excluding construction) rose by 0.9% month on month (m-o-m) in May, above consensus expectations.

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US FX intervention still someway off

2019-07-19

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2019-07-19

US Dollar Overvaluation According to OECD Purchasing Power Parity, 1971-2019
The likelihood of active FX intervention by the US authorities remains low but is increasing and the Trump administration can be expected to continue to pressure the Fed to cut rates.The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Trump.

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US ratifies double-taxation deal with Switzerland

2019-07-19

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2019-07-19

The United States Senate on Wednesday ratified a double-taxation agreement (DTA) with Switzerland, ending years of stalemate. The agreement, which required two-thirds of votes, was accepted by a large majority, according to the US Senate website.

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FX Daily, July 18: Dollar on Back Foot as Equities Slide

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

Overview:  Profit-taking continues to weigh on global equities earnings concerns saw the biggest drop in the S&P 500 in three weeks.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive session.  The Nikkei gapped lower for the second straight session and has now retraced half of the gains scored since early June.  The Shanghai Composite is at its lowest level in a month.

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Pound to Swiss Franc forecast: Will GBP/CHF rates fall below 1.20?

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

The pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate has been on steady decline since May when it peaked at 1.3397. Since then, it has fallen to 1.2245 as Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh on sterling, with the market feeling the prospect of a no-deal Brexit has increased. The franc has also risen in value owing to its status as a safe haven currency, and the continued fears over the global economy.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2019: the positive trend continues to export

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

Switzerland Trade Balance, June 2019
In the second quarter of 2019, exports increased by 1.4% and imports by 0.2%. The two traffic departments have thus set a record quarterly result. The trade surplus, on the other hand, stood at 6.8 billion francs.

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UBS warns of a looming shortage of workers in Switzerland

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

The Swiss bank UBS estimates there could be a shortfall of 500,000 workers in Switzerland in the coming 10 years as the baby boomer generation retires. However, the bank predicts the shortfall will not be even across all industries. Some sectors are expected to stagnate. Workers in these industries might find it harder to find work.

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FX Daily, July 17: Back to the Well Again

2019-07-17

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2019-07-17

Overview:  After slapping punitive tariffs on structural from China and Mexico last week, US President Trump threatened to end the tariff truce with China because it is not stepped up its purchases of US agriculture products.  Trump said the tariff freeze was in exchange for ag purchases, but at the time it seemed as if granting licenses to US companies to sell to Huawei was the quid pro quo.

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China: Q2 growth lowest in decades

2019-07-17

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2019-07-17

Growth in Real Chinese GDP by Sector, 2010-2019
Downward pressure on growth persists amid ongoing trade tensions.Chinese real GDP growth came in at 6.2% year-over-year (y-o-y) in Q2, down from 6.4% in Q1, and the lowest quarterly growth in over two decades.The tertiary sector (mainly services) continued to lead growth, expanding by 7.0% y-o-y in Q2, the same as in Q1.

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Survey: one in ten Swiss jobs is ‘low paid’

2019-07-17

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2019-07-17

Around 320,000 jobs in Switzerland are considered low paid, earning a gross monthly salary of under CHF4,335 ($4,400), according to the most recent nationwide statistics. In 2016, 12% of Swiss workers earned such a low monthly salary, the Federal Statistical Office (OFS) reported on Monday.

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Swiss fuel-related CO2 emissions remained stable in 2019

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

Despite an increase in the use of biofuels and electric vehicles, fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions remained unchanged in 2018 in the country. The stagnation was due to the increase in road traffic. Owing to a rise in the average number of kilometres Swiss residents travelled last year, as well as growth in higher-emissions passenger vehicles – mainly four-wheel drives – fuel-related CO2 emissions in 2017 were still 3.3% above their 1990 level,...

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FX Daily, July 16: Sterling Weakness Punctures Subdued Session

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

Overview: Summer in the northern hemisphere contributing to the subdued activity in the global capital markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific index stalled after a four-day advance, with Japanese, Chinese, and Australian equities offsetting gains in Taiwan, South Korea, and India.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is flattish, struggling to extend its three-day rally.

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Is the Fed too focused on corporates?

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

US Consumers' Debt Servicing Burden Has Climbed Sharply,1989-2019
Fed dovishness is helping to curb financing costs for corporates but does not seem to be percolating down to the US consumer, whose debt-servicing costs are rising. This could be something to watch. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s leading priority now is to help sustain the US business cycle, hence the concept of ‘insurance’ rate cuts put forward by Fed chairman Jerome Powell, with some echoes of Alan Greenspan’s philosophy in the 1990s.

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How to Fix GDP, Report 14 Jul

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, we looked at the idea of a national balance sheet, as a better way to measure the economy than GDP (which is production + destruction). The national balance sheet would take into account both assets and liabilities. If we take on another $1,000,000 debt to buy a $1,000,000 asset, then we have not added any equity.

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FX Daily, July 15: Marking Time on Monday

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

Overview: The new record highs in US equities ahead of the weekend coupled with Chinese data that suggested the economy was gaining some traction as Q2 wound down is helping underpin risk appetites to start the week. Japanese markets were closed today, but equities were mostly firmer in the Asia Pacific regions, markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India firmed. 

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