Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, September 05: Brexit becomes a Dog’s Breakfast as Dollar’s Correction Continues

2019-09-05

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2019-09-05

The Dollar Index fell the most in three months yesterday and is experiencing mild follow-through selling today. With hopes that Hong Kong has turned a corner, news that in-person US-China talks will resume next month, and a no-deal Brexit is well on the way to being averted, investor risk appetites are robust today.

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Gold To $3,000/oz By End Of 2020 As The Dollar Will Fall Sharply – Ron Paul

2019-09-05

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2019-09-05

Silver Price, Three Days
Where Does Gold Go From Here? — Ron Paul’s “Cautious” Prediction. “Gold is an ‘insurance policy’ as the dollar will continue go down in value as it is printed” and it will end in a monetary “calamity”. “Gold is not money due to any man-made laws. Gold is money despite man-made laws, and is a product of the voluntary marketplace”.

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: The ongoing corrective slide challenges 200-hour SMA support, around mid-0.9800s

2019-09-05

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2019-09-05

USD/CHF 1-hourly chart
Extends overnight retracement slide from an ascending trend-channel resistance. A follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair towards channel support. The USD/CHF pair remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Wednesday and retreated farther from over one-month tops set in the previous session.

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United States: The ISM Conundrum

2019-09-05

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2019-09-05

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and GDP, July 2012 - August 2019
Bond yields have tumbled this morning, bringing the 10-year US Treasury rate within sight of its record low level. The catalyst appears to have been the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI. Falling below 50, this widely followed economic indicator continues its rapid unwinding.

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FX Daily, September 04: HK Concession and Better EMU PMI Overshadows Self-Inflicted Trade and Brexit Woes

2019-09-04

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2019-09-04

Risk appetites have been bolstered by three developments. The UK appears to have taken a tentative step away from leaving the EU without a deal. Hong Kong's Chief Executive Lam has agreed to formally withdraw the controversial extradition measure that had been suspended.

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Copper Confirmed

2019-09-04

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2019-09-04

Copper NBS, August 2016 - 2019
Copper prices behave more deliberately than perhaps prices in other commodity markets. Like gold, it is still set by a mix of economic (meaning physical) and financial (meaning collateral and financing). Unlike gold, there doesn’t seem to be any rush to get to wherever the commodity market is going. Over the last several years, it has been more long periods of sideways.

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Latest Thoughts on the US Economic Outlook

2019-09-04

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2019-09-04

US GDP, Q1 2012 - 2019
The US economy is starting to show cracks from the ongoing trade war. While we do not want to make too much from one data point, we acknowledge that headwinds are building whilst US recession risks are rising.

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Asset Inflation vs. Consumer Goods Inflation, Report 1 Sep

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

Gold and Silver Prices
A paradigm is a mental framework. It has a both a positive pressure and a negative filter. It structures one’s thoughts, orients them in a certain direction, and rules out certain ideas. Paradigms can be very useful, for example the scientific method directs one to begin with facts, explain them in a consistent way, and to ignore peyote dreams from the smoke lodge and claims of mental spoon-bending.

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FX Daily, September 03: Pound Punished in High Drama

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

A showdown between UK Prime Minister Johnson and Parliament over Brexit pushed sterling below $1.20. The euro is extended its losses after finishing last week below $1.10. Growth concerns are seeing equities retreat. Japanese and Chinese shares managed to eke out gains, but the Asia Pacific and European stocks have been sold.

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Swiss National Bank Presents New 100-Franc Note

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

100-Franc Note
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will begin releasing the new 100-franc note on 12 September 2019, bringing the issuance of the ninth banknote series to a close. The first denomination in the new series, the 50-franc note, entered circulation on 13 April 2016. This was followed by the 20, 10, 200 and 1000-franc notes, which were released at six or twelve-month intervals.

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Swiss Retail Sales, July 2019: +1.5 percent Nominal and +1.4 percent Real

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, July 2019
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.5% in nominal terms in July 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2019: +0.3 percent YoY, Unchanged MoM

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, August 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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What Happened Monday

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

Markets in the US and Canada were closed on Monday for national Labor Day holidays. Here is a succinct summary of key developments that will set the backdrop for Tuesday. On September 1, the new round of tariffs in the US-China fight took effect. The US placed a 15% tariff on around 3000 Chinese goods that thus far had escaped action.

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Big Difference Which Kind of Hedge It Truly Is

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

PCE Deflator, January 20 15 - July 2019
It isn’t inflation which is driving gold higher, at least not the current levels of inflation. According to the latest update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation calculation, the PCE Deflator, continues to significantly undershoot. Monetary policy explicitly calls for that rate to be consistent around 2%, an outcome policymakers keep saying they expect but one that never happens.

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September Monthly

2019-09-02

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2019-09-02

Three forces are shaping the investment climate. The US-China trade conflict escalates at the start of September as both will raise tariffs on each other's goods and are threatening another round in mid-December (US 25% tariffs on $250 of Chinese imports will increase to 30% on October 1).

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FX Weekly Preview: Talking and Fighting in the Week Ahead

2019-09-02

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2019-09-02

Equity markets and the US dollar closed last week and August on a firm note. Ahead of the weekend, the dollar rose to new highs for the year against the euro, Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and the New Zealand dollar. While the next set of US and Chinese tariffs start September 1, the market is making the most of the lull.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2019-09-02

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2019-09-02

Emerging Markets Currencies
We remain dollar bulls; this is an important data week for the US. Final August eurozone manufacturing PMIs will be reported Monday; UK reports August PMIs this week. RBA meets Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.0%; BOC meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%.

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Labor Day Reflections on Retirement and Working for 49 Years

2019-09-02

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2019-09-02

SPX Everything Bubble, 2000 - 2019
What happens when these monstrous speculative bubbles pop? Let's start by stipulating that if I'd taken a gummit job right out of college, I could have retired 19 years ago. Instead, I've been self-employed for most of the 49 years I've been working, and I'm still grinding it out at 65.

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Most Swiss Election Candidates Favour Raising Retirement age to 67

2019-09-01

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2019-09-01

A majority of the candidates putting themselves forward for election as federal parliamentarians on 20 October 2019 favour raising Switzerland’s retirement age to 67, according to a survey done by Smartvote and reported in the newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.

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GDP Profits Hold The Answers To All Questions

2019-09-01

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2019-09-01

GDP Corporate Profits from Current Production, Jan 2010 - 2019
Revisions to second quarter GDP were exceedingly small. The BEA reduced the estimate by a little less than $800 million out of nearly $20 trillion (seasonally-adjusted annual rate). The growth rate therefore declined from 2.03502% (continuously compounded annual rate) to 2.01824%.

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