Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Weekly Preview: China Returns, ECB Record, Fed Minutes and the Week Ahead

2019-10-07

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2019-10-07

Many high-income countries experienced little growth but strong price pressures in the 1970s. Since the mainstream economics said the two were mutually exclusive, a new term had to be created, hence stagflation.  Fast forward almost half a century later, and mainstream economists are still having a problem deciphering the linkages between prices and economic activity, such as inflation and employment.

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‘A Swiss should run Credit Suisse’ ex-CS head tells newspaper

2019-10-07

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2019-10-07

In an interview with the newspaper NZZ am Sonntag, former Credit Suisse CEO Oswald Grübel has criticized the large Swiss bank for its handling of the current crisis. By maintaining that CEO Tidjane Thiam was unaware of the spying affair, the bank is harming the Swiss financial sector, Grübel said in an interview published on Sunday.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2019-10-07

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2019-10-07

The dollar rally has been derailed by weak US data and rising recession fears. The September jobs data was not a game-changer and so we are left waiting for more clues. Believe it or not, the US economy remains solid; however, the US repo market has not fully normalized yet. The Chinese trade delegation arrives in Washington Thursday for two days of trade talks.

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Big Trouble In QE Paradise

2019-10-07

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2019-10-07

Germany 10-year Bund Yield, 2014-2016
Maybe it was a sign of things to come, a warning how it wasn’t going to go as planned. Then again, when it comes to something like quantitative easing there really is no plan. Other than to make it sound like there is one, that’s really the whole idea. Not what it really is and what it actually does, to make it appear like there’s substance to it.

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Vaud’s 2020 budget – higher spending, higher taxes

2019-10-06

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2019-10-06

The Swiss canton of Vaud has managed to balance its 2020 budget with a small surplus of 76,000 francs. This is the 14th time in row that the canton’s budget has been in the black. At the same time planned spending is up by 2.43%, well ahead of Swiss inflation – prices were lower in September 2019 than they were in September 2018.

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Hackers attack Swiss consumer protection agency

2019-10-06

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2019-10-06

Hackers successfully attacked the website of the Swiss Consumer Protection Foundation last month, placing links to fake stores within the agency’s online shopping pages. The hack was detected within two hours and the malicious links were removed, said the foundation, which regularly warns consumers about online fraud.

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Why The Japanese Are Suddenly Messing With YCC

2019-10-06

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2019-10-06

Japan JGB Curve Spreads, 1985-2019
While the world’s attention was fixated on US$ repo for once, the Bank of Japan held a policy meeting and turned in an even more “dovish” performance. Likely the global central bank plan had been to combine the Fed’s second rate cut with what amounted to a simultaneous Japanese pledge for more “stimulus” in October. Both of those followed closely an ECB which got itself back in the QE business once more.

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EU to remove Switzerland from tax haven lists

2019-10-05

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2019-10-05

European Union finance ministers are set to remove Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the bloc’s lists of countries deemed to act as tax havens, an EU document said. On October 10 they are expected to remove Switzerland from the grey list that includes countries that have committed to change their tax rules to make them compliant with EU standards.

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Novartis and Microsoft to develop drugs using AI

2019-10-05

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2019-10-05

Swiss pharmaceutical firm Novartis and computer giant Microsoft have signed a five-year partnership deal aimed at transforming the Basel-based pharma’s business - from finance to manufacturing - using artificial intelligence.

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ISM Spoils The Bond Rout!!! Again

2019-10-05

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2019-10-05

Eurodollar Futures June 2020
For the second time this week, the ISM managed to burst the bond bear bubble about there being a bond bubble. Who in their right mind would buy especially UST’s at such low yields when the fiscal situation is already a nightmare and becoming more so? Some will even reference falling bid-to-cover ratios which supposedly suggests an increasing dearth of buyers.

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Blockchain for Good faces familiar blockages

2019-10-04

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2019-10-04

Our regular analysis of developments in the world of fintech and Crypto Nation. All eyes were on Libra at the Blockchain 4 Impact summit in Geneva last week. But the Facebook stablecoin project was only one part of a two-day event asking the question: Can blockchain help meet Sustainable Development Goals?

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FX Daily, October 4: The US Jobs Data to Close a Sobering Week

2019-10-04

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2019-10-04

Overview: The recovery of US shares yesterday signaled today's fragile stability. Gains in Japan, Australia, and Taiwan blunted the losses elsewhere in the region, including a 1% slide in Hong Kong.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third week. China's markets have been closed since Monday and will re-open Monday and may play some catch-up.

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AUD/CHF Technical Analysis: Bears seeking a break to channel bottoms, below 61.8 percent Fibo

2019-10-04

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2019-10-04

AUD/CHF daily chart, August 2018-October 2019
Bulls target risk back to the top of the channel and recent highs of 0.6750. Bears seek a break of trendline support and a resumption of the downside within the bearish channel. AUD/CHF has been resilient against the odds, considering the risk-off tone in markets were otherwise, the CHF usually performs.

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Fête des Vignerons seeks millions to fill financial hole

2019-10-04

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2019-10-04

The organisers of the Fête des Vignerons – a traditional winegrowers’ festival in the Swiss lakeside town of Vevey – is scrambling to cover its multi-million-franc deficit for 2019. The local winegrowers’ guild behind the once-in-a-generation private festival, which started in the 17th century, reported a CHF15 million ($14.9 million) loss for the 2019 edition on Tuesday.

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USD/CHF capped again by 1.0025, retreats below parity

2019-10-04

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2019-10-04

Technical outlook
Swiss Franc flat versus US Dollar, down against its European rivals. Another weak economic report from the US keeps the Greenback and markets under pressure. The USD/CHF pair again was capped by the 1.0025/30 area and pulled back. Near the end of the session it is hovering around 0.9980/85 after falling to 0.9950.

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The Big Picture Doesn’t Include ‘Trade Wars’

2019-10-04

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2019-10-04

WTO International Trade Forecasts, 2008-2020
The WTO today downgraded its estimates for global trade growth. In April, the international organization had figured the total volume of world merchandise trade would expand by about 2.6% in all of 2019 once the year closed out on the anticipated second half rebound. Everyone took their lumps in H1 and the WTO like central bankers everywhere were thinking “transitory” factors.

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FX Daily, October 3: Shades of Q4 18?

2019-10-03

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2019-10-03

Overview:  Disappointing economic data again drove US equities lower, which in turn carried into Asia Pacific activity. Losses were recorded throughout the region, with the notable exception of Hong Kong. The Nikkei and Australia's ASX were off by 2%. After its largest losing session of the year (-2.7%) yesterday, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to trade heavily.

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Credit Suisse braced for ‘spygate’ reputational fallout

2019-10-03

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2019-10-03

The usually discrete world of Swiss private banking has been shaken by spying revelations at Credit Suisse, the country’s second largest wealth manager. Chairman Urs Rohner has acknowledged that the sordid affair has damaged the reputation of the bank and the Swiss financial centre.

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ISM Spoils The Bond Rout!!!

2019-10-03

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2019-10-03

Federal Reserve Empire States Manu. Index, 2004-2019
With China closed for its National Day Golden Week holiday, the stage was set for Japan to steal the market spotlight. If only briefly. The Bank of Japan announced last night that it had had enough of the JGB curve. The 2s10s very nearly inverted last month and BoJ officials released preliminary plans to steepen it back out.

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Repo Quake – A Primer

2019-10-03

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2019-10-03

Chaos in Overnight Funding Markets. Most of our readers are probably aware that there were recently quite large spikes in repo rates. The events were inter alia chronicled at Zerohedge here and here. The issue is fairly complex, as there are many different drivers at play, but we will try to provide a brief explanation.

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