Tag Archive: newsletter

Gold is the 7th sense of financial markets

2020-02-19

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2020-02-19

Gold Price Performance: percent Annual Change
As we embark on this new decade, there are plenty of good reasons to be optimistic about gold’s prospects. The global economy and the financial system are already stretched to a breaking point and demand for precious metals is heating up. This, of course, is plain for all to see, even as mainstream investors and analysts still refuse to face facts and prefer to focus on naïve hopes of an eternal expansion.

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Some Problems with Worker Productivity Stats

2020-02-19

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2020-02-19

According to the US Labor Department, worker productivity in the non-farm sector increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 after declining by 0.2 percent in the previous quarter. For the year, productivity increased 1.7 percent, up from 1.3 percent in both 2017 and 2018. It was the best annual showing since the 3.4 percent increase in 2010.

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Andy Moran and Dr. Alvia Wardlaw: A Collector Talk.

2020-02-18

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Featured in the exhibition were original works by Dr. John Biggers, Kermit Oliver, Carroll Harris Simms, Edsel Cramer, Joe Moran, Jade Cooper, Julian Joseph Kyle, and Earlie Hudnall. Houston collector Andy Moran, a bohemian retired investment banker and real estate investor, has deep ties with Texas Southern University, and a history of befriending talented artists. Many of the works in his art collection were acquired directly from the artists and...

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FX Daily, February 18: Apple’s Warning Weighs on Sentiment

2020-02-18

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2020-02-18

Overview: Apple's warning that it will miss Q1 revenue due to the knock-on effects of the coronavirus seemed to be a modest wake-up call to investors, who, judging from the equity market, were looking beyond. Equities have fallen, and bonds have rallied. Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korean stocks fell by more than 1%, and only China and Indonesia were able to post gains.

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2020-02-17 – The SNB’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series: Carmen Reinhart to hold fifth lecture

2020-02-18

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2020-02-18

The Swiss National Bank is honouring Carmen Reinhart with this year’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series. Carmen Reinhart is an influential economist who has made outstanding contributions to macroeconomics. She has been Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School since 2012, and also currently serves on the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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Portugal set to end tax holidays for foreign residents

2020-02-18

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2020-02-18

Recently, the government of Portugal said it was looking at introducing a tax on foreigners residing in the country on special tax holidays, according to the magazine Bilan. Currently, foreigners moving to Portugal who spend at least 180 days a year in the country pay no income tax for a period of 10 years under a scheme that was launched 11 years ago.

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Swiss private bank Pictet to drop fossil fuel investments

2020-02-18

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2020-02-18

Recently, the private bank Pictet, based in Geneva, announced plans to eliminate all of its investments in companies actively associated with the production and extraction of fossil fuels, according to a press release.

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European Data: Much More In Store For Number Four

2020-02-18

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2020-02-18

European Economy, 2016-2019
It’s just Germany. It’s just industry. The excuses pile up as long as the downturn. Over across the Atlantic the situation has only now become truly serious. The European part of this globally synchronized downturn is already two years long and just recently is it becoming too much for the catcalls to ignore. Central bankers are trying their best to, obviously, but the numbers just aren’t stacking up their way.

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Three Reasons Why Decentralization and Secession Lead to More Open Economies

2020-02-18

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2020-02-18

When we hear of political movements in favor of decentralization and secession, the word "nationalist" is often used to describe them. We have seen the word used in both Scottish and Catalonian secession movement, and in the case of Brexit. Sometimes the term is intended to be pejorative. But not always.

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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches

2020-02-18

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2020-02-18

Post Hoc Fallacy. On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up. Rather, it went down.

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US Sales and Production Remain Virus-Free, But Still Aren’t Headwind-Free

2020-02-18

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2020-02-18

Retail Sales, NSA 2005-2020
The lull in US consumer spending on goods has reached a fifth month. The annual comparisons aren’t good, yet they somewhat mask the more recent problems appearing in the figures. According to the Census Bureau, total retail sales in January rose 4.58% year-over-year (unadjusted). Not a good number, but better, seemingly, than early on in 2019 when the series was putting out 3s and 2s.

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Widening Bid-Ask Spreads, Gold and Silver Market Report 17 February

2020-02-17

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2020-02-17

Gold Term Structure
The price of gold rose $14 and the price of silver fell $0.07. The gold-silver ratio rose further with this price action. Welcome to our new Gold and Silver Market Report, or “Market Report” for short. We are separating this from the economics essay, which was attached for many years. As they used to say in many toy commercials of yore, “batteries sold separately”—or in this case essays.

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FX Daily, February 17: Dismal Q4 Japanese GDP Fails to Spur Yen Movement

2020-02-17

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2020-02-17

Overview: It is only a US holiday today, but the global capital markets are subdued. In the Asia-Pacific region, equities traded lower with China and Hong Kong, the main advancers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen in only two weeks since the end of last November, and that was during the last two weeks of January. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 slipped in the previous two sessions but is recouping the losses fully today.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-02-17

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2020-02-17

We get the first February data from the US manufacturing sector this week; the US economy remains strong; FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday. Canada reports some key data this week. Preliminary eurozone February PMI readings will be reported Friday; UK has a busy data week.

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Swiss environmental agency sets no date for 5G launch

2020-02-17

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2020-02-17

Earlier this week, Switzerland’s Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) announced it had contacted the cantons at the end of January 2020, informing them it had not set a date for switching on 5G networks. However, mobile networks plan to continue installing 5G equipment after rolling out more than 2,000 antenna last year – a map showing where the new antenna are can be viewed here.

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Ein rationaler Erklärungsansatz für negative Zinsen

2020-02-17

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2020-02-17

In einem Beitrag auf LinkedIn am 29. Dezember 2019 wirft Prof. Erwin Heri von der Universität Basel in die Runde, dass negative (Real-)Zinsen möglicherweise vernünftig sind. Sie wären das natürliche Ergebnis der Präferenzen der Wirtschaftssubjekte – und nicht primär das Ergebnis einer Manipulation von Zentralbanken.

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Ex-cabinet members had knowledge of Crypto business dealings, say papers

2020-02-17

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2020-02-17

The Crypto leaks scandal continues to shake the Swiss political establishment. The Sunday papers report that some former federal ministers and parliamentarians had ties with the Swiss firm that helped the CIA and German intelligence listen to conversations of foreign powers for decades.

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The Fed Has Created a Monster Bubble It Can No Longer Control

2020-02-17

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2020-02-17

S&P 500 Large Cap Index, 2003-2020
The Fed must now accept responsibility for what happens in the end-game of the Moral-Hazard Monster Bubble it created. Contrary to popular opinion, the Federal Reserve didn't set out to create a Monster Bubble that has escaped its control. 

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Switzerland most expensive country in 2020

2020-02-16

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2020-02-16

It will come as little surprise to many that Switzerland has been ranked the world’s most expensive country. Put together by the magazine CEO World, the ranking pulls cost of living data on accommodation, clothing, taxi fares, utilities, internet, groceries, transport, and dining out, from a number of other studies.

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Swiss worry about online data protection, want increased regulation

2020-02-16

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2020-02-16

A survey on digitalisation released this week shows people’s greatest concern revolves around the fate of their personal data, though just as many believe new technologies hold great promise, especially in the areas of medicine, education and smart cities

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