Tag Archive: newsletter

Coronavirus – das Ende der Globalisierung!

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

Das sogenannte Coronavirus (COVID-19) breitet sich immer weiter aus. Weltweit sind bereits über 82.000 Menschen infiziert und über 2.800 daran gestorben (Stand 27.02.2020). In China stehen 760 Millionen Menschen unter Quarantäne – das ist ein Zehntel der Weltbevölkerung! Seit Januar wurden global 200.000 Flüge gestrichen und hunderte von Containerschiffen liegen vor Anker.

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Dollar Mixed as Coronavirus News Stream Deteriorates

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

The virus news stream continues to deteriorate. Lower US yields and growing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus in the US are taking a toll on the greenback. OPEC officials are trying to work out another supply cut; The outlook for Turkey is going from bad to worse. Simply put, there is nothing the Fed can do to address the economic impact of supply chain disruptions and social distancing.

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FX Daily, February 28: Fallout Accelerates

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

Overview: The dramatic response by investors to Covid-19 continues unabated and worse. The slide is accelerating. The S&P 500 posted a 4.4% loss yesterday, its worst session since 2011, and the sell-off is continuing. Many markets in Asia Pacific, including Japan, China, Korea, Australia, India, Singapore, and Thailand, fell by more than 3%.

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Swiss Retail Sales, January 2020: +0.6 percent Nominal and -0.1 percent Real

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, January 2020
28.02.2020 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.6% in nominal terms in January 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Dollar bouncing after falling to three-week’s lows, trades above 0.9700 figure

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF is bouncing from daily lows while nearing the 0.9730 resistance. As the bounce can be short-lived, the level to beat for sellers remains the 0.9680 level. USD/CHF is trading below the main daily simple moving averages suggesting an overall bearish bias in the long term. The spot is just below the 50 SMA.

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Geneva watch fair cancelled over coronavirus fears

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

The organisers of Watches & Wonders Geneva – the former Salon International de la Haute Horlogerie (SIHH) - have cancelled their annual watch fair due to take place from April 25-29, amid fears over the new coronavirus outbreak.

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Modern Monetary Theory is an old Marxist Idea

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

Modern Monetary Theory, or “MMT”, has been getting a lot of attention lately, often celebrated as a revolutionary breakthrough. However, there is absolutely nothing new about it. The very basis of the theory, the idea that governments can finance their expenditures themselves and therefore deficits don’t matter, actually goes back to the Polish Marxist economist, Michael Kalecki (1899 – 1970). 

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The EU’s Latest Screw-You to the UK Shows a Big Problem with Trade Agreements

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

Global non-tariff barriers, 2009-2016:
All too often, discussion over trade deals focuses almost solely on tariffs. It's true that tariffs—i.e., taxes—are always a significant barrier to free exchange at all levels, but there are also plenty of ways to block or lessen trade that are not primarily tariff-based. Recent conflicts over the pending negotiations between the UK and the EU are a reminder of this.

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FX Daily, February 27: The Rot Continues but Somewhat Less Dollar Friendly

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

A new phase of the Covid-19 is at hand. Yesterday was the first time that the number of new cases in the world surpassed the number of new cases China acknowledged. This confirms what we have known, namely that the battle for containing it in China has been lost.

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New record for overnight stays for the Swiss hotel sector in 2019

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

Overnight Stays 2019
27.02.2020 - In 2019, the Swiss hotel sector registered 39.6 million overnight stays. This represented growth of 1.9% (+755 000) compared with 2018 and constitutes a new record. This result confirms the upward trend started in 2017. Foreign demand totalled 21.6 million overnight stays which represents an increase of 1.1% (+246 000), i.e. a level of overnight stays never seen before.

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Scotia says evidence points to Swiss National Bank intervening in CHF

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

Euro / Swiss Franc
FX strategist at Scotiabank cites the relative stability of EUR/CHF (above and around 1.06) in the past  two weeks while turmoil in markets elsewhere.

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No, The Fed Will Not “Save the Market”–Here’s Why

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

The Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown
The greater the excesses, speculative euphoria and moral hazard, the greater the reversal. A very convenient conviction is rising in the panicked financial netherworld that the Federal Reserve and its fellow dark lords will "save the market" from COVID-19 collapse. They won't. I already explained why in The Fed Has Created a Monster Bubble It Can No Longer Control (February 16, 2020) but it bears repeating.

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Central Banking since the 2008 Financial Crisis

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

[This article is part of the Understanding Money Mechanics series, by Robert P. Murphy. The series will be published as a book in late 2020.] In chapter 5 we reviewed the textbook analysis of how a central bank buys government debt in “open market operations” to add reserves to the banking system, with which commercial banks can then advance loans to their own customers.

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Mises and the “New Economics”

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

[This article is excerpted from a talk delivered on February 22, 2020 at the Austrian Student Scholars Conference, hosted by Grove City College in Pennsylvania.] I. Introduction What a wonderful gathering of students today, on this impressive and beautiful campus. We can see why Hans Sennholz loved this place, and why Drs. Herbener and Ritenour so enjoy living and teaching here.

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Economy: Curved Again

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

Mexican Economy, 2016-2019
Earlier today, Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) confirmed the country’s economy is in recession. Updating its estimate for Q4 GDP, year-over-year output declined by 0.5% rather than -0.3% as first thought. On a quarterly basis, GDP was down for the second consecutive quarter which mainstream convention treats as a technical recession.

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Start of a Virus: Time to Buy Stocks? #Corona

2020-02-26

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2020-02-26

The S&P500 developed well some month after a virus start
We suggest that the first month of a bigger virus outbreak is a good time for buying stocks. History has proven this timing decision right.

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FX Daily, February 26: Dramatic Investor Adjustment Continues

2020-02-26

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2020-02-26

Overview: The warning by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention that Americans should prepare for an outbreak of Covid-19 sent the S&P 500 tumbling to an 11-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low near 1.30%. The volatility of the S&P (VIX) jumped to its highest level since 2018. The sell-off in global equities continues unabated.

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Should rail commuter data be monetised through advertising?

2020-02-26

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2020-02-26

Swiss Federal Railways is coming under fire for using the personal data of commuters for advertising purposes. The data commissioner and a watchdog group have sounded the alarm bell as the volume of data being harnessed grows.

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Schaetze To That

2020-02-26

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2020-02-26

Inflation Europe, 2007-2020
When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil.

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Seven Big-Picture Considerations for Covid-19

2020-02-26

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2020-02-26

Yuan Performance vs. Major Trading Partners, 2020
Below is a non-exhaustive list of medium- and long-term implications from the Covid-19. We discuss the yuan, China’s competitiveness, its position in the global production chains, the impact on the Phase One trade deal, and rising financial stability risks. Globally, the virus will bring about a new wave of fiscal spending and revive the discussions about the limits of monetary policy.

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