Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, April 18: EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

Overview: A bout of profit-taking in equities began in the US yesterday and has carried through Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in five days, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day advance.  The Nikkei gapped higher to start the week and a gap low tomorrow would undermine the technical outlook.

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Pound to Swiss Franc rates: UK housing price growth hits 6 year low

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

We have seen a fairly stagnant market following the Brexit extension until 31st October. Although a key factor on GBP/CHF economic date releases will now gain back some of their impact. Yesterday saw the ease of House Price Growth data and figures dropped to a six year low. The average house price of across the UK grew by 0.6%, but property prices in the capital fell by 3.8%.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2019: Foreign trade at a high level

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), Q1 2019
Swiss foreign trade saw a mixed evolution during the first half of 2019. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell slightly, still remaining above the 57 billion franc mark. Imports, on the other hand, continued to rise (+1 , 0%) to reach a record level of 51.2 billion francs. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 6.2 billion francs.

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Credit Suisse to take controlling stake in its Chinese joint venture

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

Swiss bank Credit Suisse has agreed with Founder Securities to increase its shareholding to a majority stake in its Beijing-based Credit Suisse Founder Securities (CSFS) joint venture. As a result of the agreement, Credit Suisse’s shareholding is expected to increase from 33.3% to 51% by way of capital injection. The shareholding of Founder Securities in CSFS will reduce to 49%.

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The Next Financial Crisis Won’t Be Caused by Fraud: This Time Will Be Different

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

All Sectors, Debt Securities and Loans, Liability, 1960 - 2019
Financial crises come in two flavors: fraud and credit-valuation over-reach.Fraud-based financial crises may differ in particulars, but they share many traits: perverse incentives are institutionalized; the perverse incentives reward figuring out how to evade oversight via fraud, embezzlement, masking risk, etc. which are soon commoditized; regulations are gutted by insider-funded lobbying; regulators fail to do their job in hopes of getting...

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FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

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Swiss Policy Mix Review

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Swiss Government Debt, 1990 - 2018
The Swiss federal budget is governed by a strict expenditure rule, which is enshrined in the Constitution. Since its introduction, the ratio of public debt-to-GDP has been significantly reduced, falling back to its early-90’s level. At the close of 2018, the Swiss federal budget registered a significant surplus of CHF 2.9 billion, compared with budget projections for a surplus of CHF 295 million.

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Cool Video: Trump Ahead in 2020?

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Marc Chandler
First, I tried playing down the significance of Goldman's call. The markets have anticipated this. redictIt.Org has shown the President to be an easy favorite since the start of the year. Charles Payne, the host, dismissed these results because he said they reflect professional gambler. I don't know if that is true or even relevant (ad hominem?).

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Swiss pension funds ended 2018 in the red

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Pay-outs by Switzerland’s main state pension plan, which comprises old age insurance and other schemes, far exceeded income last year. Overall, the old age pension scheme recorded a deficit of CHF2.2 billion ($2.2 billion) in 2018 compared with a surplus of CHF1.1 billion the previous year, according to compenswiss, the Federal Social Security Funds.

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Green Shoot or Domestic Stall?

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

U.S. Industrial Production, SA 2007-2019
According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen better than 68 since way back in March 2010, back when the economy looked briefly like it might actually recover.

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FX Daily, April 16: The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Amid light news, global equities are moving higher In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European equities are solid, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moving higher for the fifth consecutive session.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in March 2019: -0.2 percent YoY, +0.3 percent MoM

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, March 2019
15.04.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index increased in March 2019 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with March 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.2%.

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What happens next on GBP/CHF exchange rates?

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate has been rather volatile, oscillating in a tight range between 1.2942 and 1.3336 in the last month. There is an expectation that we could see the pound losing further ground with the market bracing for worse news in the future for sterling.

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New Inflation Indicator, Report 14 Apr

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, we wrote that regulations, taxes, environmental compliance, and fear of lawsuits forces companies to put useless ingredients into their products. We said: “For example, milk comes from the ingredients of: land, cows, ranch labor, dairy labor, dairy capital equipment, distribution labor, distribution capital, and consumable containers.”

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Swiss leaders upbeat after talks in US on tax and trade

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Obstacles to implementation of a revised double-taxation agreement between Switzerland and the United States may soon be removed, according to Swiss president and finance minister Ueli Maurer. Maurer was speaking after a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday in Washington, where he is attending the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.

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Coloring One Green Shoot

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

China Retail Sales, 2010-2018
China’s Passenger Car Association reported last week that retail sales of various vehicles totaled 1.78 million units in March 2019. The total was 12% less than the number of automobiles sold in March 2018. This matches the government’s data, both sets very clear as to when Chinese economic struggles accelerated: May 2018.

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FX Daily, April 15: Redemption Monday

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start. The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today. Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore moved lower.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Super Cycle Revisited

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

In the big picture, we argue that the dollar’s appreciation is part of the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods. The first was the Reagan-Volcker dollar rally, spurred by a policy mix of tight monetary and loose fiscal policies.

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SNB-Aktie: Goldgrube oder Fettnäpfchen?

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

Das Bundesgesetz über die Nationalbank (Nationalbankgesetz, NBG) besagt in Artikel 25: „Das Aktienkapital der Nationalbank beträgt 25 Millionen Franken. Es ist eingeteilt in 100’000 Namenaktien mit einem Nennwert von je 250 Franken. Die Aktien sind vollständig liberiert.“ Und in Artikel 31 Absatz 1 steht: „Vom Bilanzgewinn wird eine Dividende von höchstens 6 Prozent des Aktienkapitals ausgerichtet.“

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No Fix for Recession: Without a Financial Crisis, There’s No Central Bank Policy Fix

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 2004-2018
There are no extreme "fixes" to secular declines in sales, profits, employment, tax revenues and asset prices. The saying "never let a crisis go to waste" embodies several truths worth pondering as the stock market nears new highs. One truth is that extreme policies that would raise objections in typical times can be swept into law in the "we have to do something" panic of a crisis.

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