Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, March 12: Trump Dump as Market Turns to ECB

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

Overview: After the Bank of England and the UK Treasury announced both monetary and fiscal support, the focus turns to the ECB, but the proximity of the US Congressional recess (next week) without strong fiscal measures being in place sucked the oxygen away from other issues. President Trump's national address in the Asian session failed to reassure investors.

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Aktien Schweiz: SMI hält die Gewinne

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

So soll EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde die EU-Regierungschefs wegen der Coronavirus-Krise vor einem extremen Schock für die Wirtschaft gewarnt haben. Ohne koordiniertes Vorgehen werde Europa ein Szenario erleben, das viele an die grosse Finanzkrise 2008 erinnern werde, sagte Lagarde am Dienstagabend laut einem Bericht der Nachrichtenagentur Bloomberg während einer Telefonkonferenz des EU-Rats.

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Online shopping breaches CHF10 billion mark

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

Swiss shoppers spent more than CHF10 billion ($11 billion) online last year, an increase of 8.4% from 2018, according to a study of retail habits. Electronics and fashion goods dominated orders. Food accounted for just 2.8% of the total goods consumed (up from 1.8% in 2018), but the report’s authors expect orders to increase this year with people reluctant to go to supermarkets in view of the coronavirus outbreak.

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(Almost) Everything Sold Off Today

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

Eurodollar Futures Curve, 2018-2024
The eurodollar curve’s latest twist exposes what’s behind the long end. To recap: big down day in stocks which, for the first time in a while, wasn’t accompanied by massive buying in longer maturity UST’s. Instead, these were sold, too. Rumors of parity funds liquidating were all over the place, which is consistent with this curve behavior.

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Dollar Soft as BOE Surprises Ahead of UK Budget

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

The dollar is stabilizing but remains vulnerable to disappointment as markets await details of US fiscal measures. US reports February CPI; Joe Biden moved closer to clinching the Democratic nomination. BOE delivered a surprise 50 bp rate cut to 0.25% and initiated a new lending scheme; UK government releases its budget today; UK reported weak data.

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Gold Gains As Bank of England Slashes to Emergency Rate of 0.25percent and ECB Warns Of 2008 Style “Great Financial Crisis”

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

Spot Gold Price USD/oz
◆ Gold prices rose by 0.6% today as the Bank of England slashed rates in an emergency move to 0.25% and the ECB looks set to follow as it warned of a 2008 style crisis overnight. ◆ The Bank of England slashed its main interest rate to 0.25 percent this morning in a emergency move to combat the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak on the UK economy.

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The “Market Monetarists” and NGDP Targeting

2020-03-12

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2020-03-12

[This article is part of the Understanding Money Mechanics series, by Robert P. Murphy. The series will be published as a book in late 2020.] In addition to the Keynesian perspective (covered in chapter 14), a relatively new challenge to the Austrian framework comes from the “market monetarists” and their endorsement of a central bank policy of “level targeting” of nominal gross domestic product (sometimes abbreviated as NGDPLT1).

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FX Daily, March 11: US Over-Promises and Under-Delivers, while BOE Steps Up with 50 bp Rate Cut

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

Overview: The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials sold off after the higher open and briefly traded below yesterday's lows. Investors seemed disappointed that the Trump Administration was not ready with specific policies after Monday's tease that had initially helped lift Asia Pacific and European markets earlier on Tuesday. This sparked a sharp decline in Europe into the close.

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Rejected at 0.94, bear flag on 4H

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

USD/ CHF, Daily Chart
USD/CHF is under pressure in Asia as US index futures are flashing red. The pair has created a bear flag or a bearish continuation pattern on the 4-hour chart. USD/CHF is currently trading at 0.9364, representing a 0.38% drop on the day, having failed to chew through offers around 0.94 during the overnight trade.

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Devisen: Euro mit Abschlägen zu Dollar und Franken

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

Zum Franken neigt der Euro ebenfalls wieder leicht zur Schwäche. Im asiatischen Handel hatte sich die Gemeinschaftswährung noch oberhalb der 1,06er Marke bewegt, seit dem Vormittag ging es dann aber tendenziell wieder etwas abwärts, so dass aktuell 1,0597 Franken gezahlt werden. Der US-Dollar notiert mit 0,9328 Franken ebenfalls etwas tiefer als noch im frühen Handel.

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No ‘ghost flights’ to Zurich airport, authorities say

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

With passenger numbers down due to Covid-19, some airlines want authorities to loosen rules maintain that airport landing slots are lost unless fully used. “Use it or lose it”: regulations state that when an airline is allocated a landing slot, it must use it at least 80% of the time planned, or else risk being stripped of it the following year.

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Roche tells all Spanish staff to work remotely

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

Swiss pharma giant Roche said on Tuesday it would send all of its 1,200 Spanish employees home starting from Wednesday to work remotely amid the coronavirus outbreak. “The company will maintain its normal activity and will guarantee, as until now, the supply of medicines to hospitals,” Roche said in a statement.

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If China Is the Problem, Can’t We At Least Have Free Trade with Everyone Else?

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

It remains unclear how much the stock market implosion of recent days will affect the larger economy. As David Stockman has noted often, the Wall Street economy is not synonymous with the Main Street economy, contrary to what the advocates of rampant bank bailouts and financialization would have us believe.

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ECB Preview, March 11

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

Christine Lagarde will chair her third ECB meeting Thursday.  She faces growing risks of recession but also widespread skepticism within the ECB regarding the efficacy of negative rates.  Markets have priced in several rate cuts this year.  Here, we discuss what measures the ECB may take this week.

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Low Rates As Chaos, Not ‘Stimulus’

2020-03-11

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2020-03-11

UST Yield & Money Alternates, 2007-2009
Basic recession economics says that when you end up with too much of some commodity, too much inventory that you can’t otherwise sell, you have to cut the price in order to move it. Discounting is a feature of those times. What about a monetary panic? This might sound weird, but same thing.

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Is this the Beginning of a Recession?

2020-03-10

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2020-03-10

As I sit here Monday evening with the Dow having closed down 2000 points and the 10-year Treasury yield around 0.5%, the title of this update seems utterly ridiculous. With the new coronavirus still spreading and a collapse in oil prices threatening the entire shale oil industry, recession is now the expected outcome. Most observers seem to question only the potential length and depth of the coming downturn.

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Coronavirus hits Swiss train passenger numbers

2020-03-10

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2020-03-10

The number of people taking trains in Switzerland has fallen since the outbreak of the coronavirus, resulting in a huge financial hit, Swiss Federal Railways reported on Tuesday.

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Dollar Firm as Global Financial Markets Calm

2020-03-10

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2020-03-10

Global financial markets are finally seeing a measure of calm return; local Chinese media is sounding more confident that the situation is now under control. The White House will announce fiscal measures today; five states hold primaries and one holds a caucus with 352 total pledged delegates up for grabs.

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FX Daily, March 10: Markets Stabilize after Body Blow

2020-03-10

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2020-03-10

Overview:  It appears after a few days of miscues, US officials struck the right chord, and the global capital markets seemed to stabilize shortly after the US session ended.  President Trump's press conference today is expected to spell out in greater detail relief for households and businesses.  Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by a 3% surge in Australia.

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Swiss hotels poised for big losses after record 2019

2020-03-10

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2020-03-10

The Swiss hotel industry could lose out on up to half a billion francs in 2020 due to the impact of Covid-19, the boss of the country’s tourism body has said. Martin Nydegger of Switzerland Tourism said on Monday that he expects the virus to account for some 2.1 million fewer overnight stays in Swiss hotels this year compared with 2019, amounting to financial losses of CHF532 million ($574 million).

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