Tag Archive: newsletter

Coronavirus: anti-lockdown protests in Switzerland

2020-05-13

by

2020-05-13

Over the weekend, hundreds rallied against lockdown measures across Switzerland in the cities of Bern, Zurich, Basel and St. Gallen. Anti-lockdown protesters in these cities flouted rules introduced in mid-March banning public groups of more than five people, designed to reduce the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The protestors consider the rules in breach of their fundamental rights.

Read More »

Falcon exits Swiss private banking after 1MDB scandal

2020-05-13

by

2020-05-13

The Abu Dhabi-owned Falcon private bank says it is winding down activities in Switzerland and is in talks with a Swiss rival to take on its existing clients next year. Falcon was taken to task by regulators in both Switzerland and Singapore for its role in channelling assets from the Malaysian 1MDB fraud.

Read More »

Different Type of Crisis, Some Old Concerns

2020-05-13

by

2020-05-13

Over the past two months we have witnessed historic turmoil followed by unprecedented intervention by policy makers and central banks in supporting the capital markets (and more). In many ways the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is very different from the 2008 global financial crisis, but for some, certain old concerns still linger. In the face of short selling bans and worries about market liquidity, we discuss below how best to navigate some of the common...

Read More »

Pandemic, Lockdowns, Fake and Manipulated Markets – Gold and Silver Outlook

2020-05-13

by

2020-05-13

Gold in USD – 3 Days
◆ The massive global debt driven “Everything Bubble” is bursting due to the pandemic and more specifically the governments draconian economic lockdowns. ◆ A dollar crisis is inevitable with U.S. government debt surging by some $2 trillion in a matter of weeks and ballooning to over $25 trillion

Read More »

A Big One For The Big “D”

2020-05-13

by

2020-05-13

CPI less Food & Energy, 1983-2020
From a monetary policy perspective, smooth is what you are aiming for. What central bankers want in this age of expectations management is for a little bit of steady inflation. Why not zero? Because, they decided, policymakers need some margin of error. Since there is no money in monetary policy, it takes time for oblique “stimulus” signals to feed into the psychology of markets and the economy.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 12: Markets Tread Water, Looking for New Focus

2020-05-12

by

2020-05-12

Overview: Investors seem to be in want of new drivers, leaving the capital markets with little fresh direction. While Japanese and China equities were little changed, several markets in the region, including Australia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India, were off more than 1%. European bourses are mostly higher after the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 slipped 0.4% yesterday.

Read More »

SNB COVID-19 refinancing facility expanded to include cantonal loan guarantees as well as joint and several loan guarantees for startups

2020-05-12

by

2020-05-12

The Swiss National Bank announced the establishment of the SNB COVID-19 refinancing facility (CRF) on 25 March 2020. This facility allows banks to obtain liquidity from the SNB by assigning credit claims from corporate loans as collateral. In so doing, the SNB enables banks to expand their lending rapidly and on a large scale.

Read More »

The Way of the Tao Is Reversal

2020-05-12

by

2020-05-12

As Jackson Browne put it: Don't think it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet. We can summarize all that will unfold in the next few years in one line: The way of the Tao is reversal. This is the opening line of Chapter 40 of Lao Tzu's 5,000-character commentary on the Tao, The Tao Te Ching. There are many translations of this slim volume, and for a variety of reasons I favor the 1975 translation by my old professor at the University of...

Read More »

Most think Switzerland is reopening fast or too fast, according to survey

2020-05-12

by

2020-05-12

A survey published on 7 May 2020, suggests only 36% of Swiss support the government’s calendar for reopening the country after the Covid-19 shutdown. 23% think the plan to reopen is too slow, while 42% think it is fast or too fast. However, 60% said they had confidence in the government.

Read More »

Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-05-12

by

2020-05-12

Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged from last week. Sri Lanka and India have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity. Please see trading comments below.

Read More »

Three Reasons Why the Eurozone Recovery Will Be Poor

2020-05-12

by

2020-05-12

The eurozone economy is expected to collapse in 2020. In countries such as Spain and Italy, the decline, more than 9 percent, will likely be much larger than in emerging market economies. However, the key is to understand how and when the eurozone economies will recover.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 11: Quiet Start to New Week

2020-05-11

by

2020-05-11

Overview: The new week begins slowly in the capital markets. Many markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia, gained over 1%, but European and US shares are heavier. Benchmarks off all three regions rallied by 3.4%-3.5% over the past two weeks. Bond markets are also little changed, with the US 10-year benchmark just below 70 bp ahead of this week's record refunding.

Read More »

Economic cost of pandemic will be enormous: SNB chief

2020-05-11

by

2020-05-11

Coronavirus is costing between CHF11 billion and CHF17 billion a month, putting such a strain on the Swiss economy that it will take years to recover. Swiss National Bank (SNB) chairman Thomas Jordan has predicted the worst depression since the 1930s.

Read More »

Swiss customs uncover blackmarket animal drugs scam

2020-05-11

by

2020-05-11

More than 200 farmers, many in Switzerland, are suspected of buying illegal medicaments for their livestock from a French blackmarket dealer. Swiss customs uncovered the scam when the veterinarian was stopped at the border with his car full of animal drugs.

Read More »

Swiss tourism industry struggling for survival

2020-05-11

by

2020-05-11

The Swiss tourism industry will take five years to recover from the coronavirus pandemic with around a quarter of companies in the sector fearing for their future. However, Martin Nydegger, head of Switzerland Tourism, believes something can still be salvaged for the industry this year.

Read More »

How the Corona Crisis Differs from the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis

2020-05-11

by

2020-05-11

US Five-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (Derived from Five-Year Inflation Indexed Treasurys) from December 3, 2007, to April 30, 2020
There are several important differences between the global financial crisis of 2007–08 (GFC) and the coronavirus crisis (CC). Origin and Nature of the Crisis. The GFC resulted from financial imbalances, primarily the housing bubble, while the CC was triggered by the external negative shock (the pandemic and the following economic shutdown) that dramatically reduced the labor supply.

Read More »

Unemployment up sharply in April in Switzerland

2020-05-10

by

2020-05-10

The unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 3.3% in April 2020, up from 2.9% the month before, a rise of nearly 14%. By 30 April 2020, there were 153,413 people registered as unemployed at Switzerland’s regional placement offices. Young workers were the hardest hit. Unemployment among those aged 15 to 24 rose by 18.1% compared to March 2020 and by 61.3% compared to April 2019.

Read More »

Swiss tourism numbers crash as jobless figures rise

2020-05-10

by

2020-05-10

The number of overnight stays in Swiss hotels fell by nearly two-thirds in March as the coronavirus pandemic gripped the country. Hotels recorded just 1.26 million overnight stays compared to 3.4 million in the same month last year.

Read More »

Surviving 2020 #3: Plans A, B and C

2020-05-10

by

2020-05-10

Readers ask for specific recommendations for successfully navigating the post-credit/speculative-bubble era and I try to do so while explaining the impossibility of the task. As the bogus prosperity economy built on exponential growth of debt implodes, we all seek ways to protect ourselves, our families and our worldly assets. 

Read More »

When Governments Switched Their Story from “Flatten the Curve” to “Lockdown until Vaccine”

2020-05-10

by

2020-05-10

In the early days of the COVID-19 panic—back in mid-March—articles began to appear pushing the idea of "flattening the curve" (the Washington Post ran an article called "Flatten the Curve" on March 14). This idea was premised on spreading out the total number of COVID-19 infections over time, so as to not overburden the healthcare infrastructure.

Read More »