Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, November 13: Investors Temper Euphoria

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

Overview: The recent rise in equity markets and backing up in yields spurred many observers to upgrade their macroeconomic outlooks rather than the other way around. Yet we continue to see may worrisome signs. It is not just trade, though, of course, that is part of it. Sentiment itself is fragile and will likely follow prices.

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SNB’s Jordan: Swiss franc remains highly valued

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

Foreign exchange market remains fragile. Negative rates, readiness for intervention still necessary. Danger of a worsening international situation remains large. Imbalances in Swiss real estate market still persist.

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Swiss crypto bank SEBA outlines ambitions

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

Crypto bank SEBA is confident of attracting a “three-digit” number of Swiss clients by the end of the year before setting its sights on global expansion and raising more than CHF100 million ($101 million) in extra funding from the public.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback loses steam against Swissy, trades near 0.9930 level

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF erased its intraday gains, settling near the 0.9930 level. Support is seen at the 0.9920 level. On the daily chart, USD/CHF is trading in a range below its 200-day simple moving average (DMA). The spot is holding just above the 50 SMA today at the 0.9921 level. 

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No Swiss citizenship for WEF founder Schwab, reports say

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab will not be receiving honorary Swiss citizenship, despite the idea having being mooted earlier this year. Such an honorary conferral of the passport has no basis in Swiss law, the Federal Justice Office announced on Tuesday, after it was contacted by the daily Südostschweiz newspaper.

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Now That We’ve Incentivized Sociopaths–Guess What Happens Next

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

As long as central banks create and distribute trillions in conscience-free credit to conscience-free financiers and corporations, the incentives for sociopathy only increase. "Sociopath" is a word we now encounter regularly in the mainstream media, but what does it mean? Here is a list of 16 traits, many of which are visible in lionized corporate and political leaders and entrepreneurs.

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FX Daily, November 12: Farage Declares Truce with Tories after being Offered a Peerage, Underpins Sterling

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Global capital markets are calm as investors look for a new catalyst. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped back after posting its first back-to-back decline in a month. All the equity markets were higher, but Australia. The Nikkei, Kospi, and Taiex led the advance with about a 0.8% gain. European shares closed firmly near session highs yesterday, even if still lower on the day, and there has been some follow-through buying today.

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Billionaires’ club shrinks as economy wobbles

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

The world lost 57 billionaires last year as economic woes and the unexpected strengthening of the US dollar wiped $388 billion (CHF386 billion) from their combined wealth. Switzerland had three fewer billionaires; the 33 who remain saw their bank accounts shrink by $16 billion.

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For Labor And Recession, The Bad One

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs 1983-2019
There’s a couple of different ways that Unit Labor Costs can rise. Or even surge. The first is the good way, the one we all want to see because it is consistent with the idea of an economy that is actually booming. If workers have become truly scarce as macro forces sustain actual growth such that all labor market slack is absorbed, then businesses have to compete for them bidding up the price of marginal labor.

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The Real Boom Potential

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

China Exports, 1998-2019
For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today believe it was WWII which actually did the disproving.

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What’s the Price of Gold in the Gold Standard, Report 10 Nov

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Gold Price
Let’s revisit a point that came up in passing, in the Silver Doctors’ interview of Keith. At around 35:45, he begins a question about weights and measures, and references the Coinage Act of 1792. This raises an interesting set of issues, and we have encountered much confusion (including from one PhD economist whose dissertation committee was headed by Milton Friedman himself).

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The Feds Spend More on National-Debt Interest Than You Think

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Debt Held
Recently, the Treasury Department reported a 26% increase in the federal budget deficit with a 2019 deficit of $984 billion. The reported data on the budget can be misleading. You might think that a budget deficit is the amount of spending that exceeds budget revenue, in other words, the amount of borrowing needed to make up for this shortfall. However, in the world of Washington D.C., not all spending is counted as spending and it’s possible for...

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Billionaire Boom “Has Now Undergone A Natural Correction”

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

Fifteen Years of asset growth, 2003-2018
Over the last five years ending in 2018, the billionaire boom created more billionaires than the world has ever seen. These financial elites saw their wealth increase by more than a third over the same period, but as soon as 2018 rolled around, the billionaire boom deflated, according to a new UBS/PwC Billionaires Report.

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French-speaking cantons biggest winners from next year’s fiscal transfers

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

The amount of money paid by “rich” cantons to “poor” ones will rise by CHF 61 million to CHF 5.3 billion in 2020, according to a recent government press release. The only French-speaking canton paying will be Geneva. All of the rest will see the sums they receive rise compared to 2019. In 2020, Geneva will pay CHF 275 million, down slightly from the CHF 300 million it paid in 2019.

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FX Weekly Preview: Caution: Prices Diverging from Macro Drivers

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

Sometimes the news drives the markets and but now it seems that the markets are driving the news.  The dramatic swing in market sentiment from fearing a repeat of Q4 18 and the pessimism of World Bank/IMF forecasts have been cast aside for a few data points and a tease from the world's two largest economies that an agreement to begin a de-escalation process not just extending the third tariff truce.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal will be struck soon that lower existing tariffs. 

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Riding the Type 3 Mega Market Melt Up Train

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

Beta-driven Fantasy. The decade long bull market run, aside from making everyone ridiculously rich, has opened up a new array of competencies. The proliferation of ETFs, for instance, has precipitated a heyday for the ETF Analyst. So, too, blind faith in data has prompted the rise of Psychic Quants… who see the future by modeling the past.

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Why Government Should not Fight Deflation

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

For most experts, deflation is considered bad news since it generates expectations of a decline in prices. As a result, they believe, consumers are likely to postpone their buying of goods at present since they expect to buy these goods at lower prices in the future.

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Avenir Suisse erteilt Schweizer Staatsfonds klare Absage

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Kein Sparschweinchen aus SNB-Pfründen. (Bild: Shutterstock.com/ valeriiaarnaud)Das Vermögen von Norwegens erfolgreichem Staatsfonds hat die Billionen-Franken-Schwelle geknackt und erntet entsprechende mediale Aufmerksamkeit. Dies lässt auch in der Schweiz Forderungen nach einem ähnlichen Konstrukt aufleben, um vorhersehbare AHV-Finanzierungslücken dereinst zu decken.

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