Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, August 22: Markets Take US Political Developments in Stride

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

News that President Trump's personal lawyer claimed he was instructed by the candidate to commit a federal crime and, separately, his the former campaign manager was found guilty on eight counts is hardly impacting the global capital markets.

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Swiss Trade Balance July 2018: Slowdown to a High Level

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

Switzerland Trade Balance, July 2018
After stagnating the previous month, both exports and imports fell in July 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, they fell by 3.0 and 2.8%, respectively. The decline in the chemicals-pharmaceuticals sector weighed on the result in both directions of the traffic. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 1.2 billion francs.

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Submerged Lighthouse Syndrome – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

Island Light
Last week, the lighthouse went down 24 meters (gold went down $24), or 50 inches (if you prefer, silver went down 50 cents). However, let’s take a look at the only true picture of supply and demand. Are the fundamentals dropping with the market price?

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Cool Video: Bloomberg TV Clip-Dollar Developments

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

Bloomberg Cool Video
The US dollar was sliding as I joined Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on the Bloomberg Markets show. I tried making the case, as I have in recent posts, that the dollar's rally in the first half of the month had left it over-extended. Most of the major currencies were outside of their Bollinger Bands a week ago and had begun correcting since August 15.

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Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders Top in Dollar Index

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

This Great Graphic depicts what appears to be a head and shoulders top in the hourly bar chart of the Dollar Index. The neckline is found near 96.00 and rotating the pattern along it produces a measuring objective near 95.00. The bearish pattern was formed in the last few days, and the Dollar Index was resting near the neckline before Trump's comments gave it the push.

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FX Daily, August 21: Trump Comments Hit Dollar, Little Impact on Rates

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

The US dollar is broadly lower following President Trump's comments yesterday, criticising Fed policy and reiterating his previously made claim that China and the EU are manipulating their currencies. We suggested that last week's presidential tweet that identified strong capital inflows into the US may not have been written by President Trump.

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A trying time for euro

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

EUR/USD vs. EA - US growth differential as % (with AA&MR projections)
The euro has hit new lows against the US dollar. We are revising down our EUR/USD projections for the next few months.The euro broke to the downside from its tight trading range relative to the US dollar since the end of May. These new lows go against our expectations of a gradual appreciation of the single currency relative to the greenback in the second half of the year and indicate that we have underestimated the short-term risks related to the...

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A third of Swiss companies have difficulty filling vacancies

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

A shortage of skilled labour continues to affect the Swiss job market, according to the latest survey by employment agency Manpower. Among reasons given for difficulties in finding the right candidates, 30% of employers surveyed cited a lack of technical skills, 29% a lack of candidates, 17% blamed a lack of professional experience and 14% cited missing interpersonal skills.

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Annual Mine Supply of Gold: Does it Matter?

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

Cumulative Global Gold Production: 1835 to present day.
The topic of how much extractable gold is left in the world has become increasingly discussed within the last few years. This is because of increased focus on ‘peak gold’ and also a concern about remaining levels of unextracted gold reserves. Peak gold is a term referring to the phenomenon of annual gold mining supply peaking (i.e. the rate of gold extraction increases until it peaks at maximum gold output and subsequently diminishes).

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In Next Crisis, Gold Won’t Drop Like 2008, Report 19 August 2018

2018-08-20

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2018-08-20

Gold Basis Continuous, 2004-2008
Last week, we discussed the tension between forces pushing the dollar up and down (measured in gold—you cannot measure the dollar in terms of its derivatives such as euro, pound, yen, and yuan). And we gave short shrift to the forces pushing the dollar down. We said only that to own a dollar is to be a creditor. And if the debtors seem in imminent danger of default, then creditors should want to escape this risk.

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FX Daily, August 20: Greenback Consolidates Pre-Weekend Pullback in Quiet Turnover

2018-08-20

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2018-08-20

The US dollar is slightly firmer against most of the major currencies, as the light participation and lack of fresh news see a consolidative tone emerge after the pullback at the end of last week. Although markets in Turkey are closed for a nearly week-long holiday, it has not prevented the lira from weakening. After closing a little below TRY6.02 before the weekend, the greenback has moved to TRY6.15 in the European morning.

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FX Weekly Preview: Five Traps in the Week Ahead

2018-08-20

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2018-08-20

Officials have taken steps to make it more difficult and more expensive to short the lira, but that did not prevent a 5% slide ahead of the weekend. There is no interest rate, within reason, that can compensate for such currency risk.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-08-20

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2018-08-20

EM FX stabilized last week as the situation in Turkey calmed somewhat. Reports Friday that the US and China are hoping to resolve the trade dispute also helped EM FX ahead of the weekend. However, TRY remains vulnerable as the US threatens more sanctions due to the pastor. Both S&P and Moody’s downgraded it ahead of the weekend and our own ratings model points to further downgrades ahead. Turkish markets are closed this week for holiday.

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Capital Flocks to the US

2018-08-19

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2018-08-19

The US policy mix gets a privileged place in our understanding of what is the dollar. Tighter monetary policy and looser fiscal policy could be the closest thing to an elixir for currencies.  It is the policy mix that the US is pursuing.  

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Swiss Health Insurance Companies Aim to Make it Easier to Break Contracts

2018-08-19

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2018-08-19

Swiss-health-insurance
Swiss health insurance companies are aiming to change laws to make it easier for them to unilaterally end complementary insurance contracts, according to the newspaper Le Matin.

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If You Want to Survive this Election with Your Mental Health Intact, Turn Off the “News” and Social Media Now

2018-08-19

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2018-08-19

Media Concentration
If you want to preserve your sanity and avoid unhappy derangement, turn off all corporate and social media from now to Thanksgiving. Since elections are extremely profitable for traditional media / social media corporations, your sanity will gleefully be sacrificed in the upcoming election--if you are gullible enough to watch the "news" and tune into social media.Elections are extremely profitable because candidates spend scads of cash on media...

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Swiss cereal harvests set to drop in 2018 after hot weather

2018-08-18

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2018-08-18

Bread wheat, barley, and rapeseed harvests look set to be considerably lower in Switzerland in 2018 compared to previous years, due to the prolonged heat and drought-like conditions this summer. The figures, collected by the Swiss granum organization, were based on data supplied by 29 cereal collection centres, covering 35% of the Swiss barley market, 50% of the bread wheat market, and 55% of the rapeseed market.

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What’s Hot Isn’t Retail Sales Growth

2018-08-18

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2018-08-18

US Retail Sales, June 2011 - 2018
Americans are spending more on filling up. A lot more. According the Census Bureau, retail sales at gasoline stations had increased by nearly 20% year-over-year (unadjusted) in both May and June 2018. In the latest figures for July, released today, gasoline station sales were up by more than 21%.

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Fundamental Price of Gold Decouples Slightly – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-08-18

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2018-08-18

Gold and Silver Price
Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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FX Daily, August 17: Dollar Limps into the Weekend

2018-08-17

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2018-08-17

The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the world's currencies today.  The main exceptions come from the emerging markets where the Turkish lira, Russian ruble, and Mexican peso are the chief exceptions, and their losses are modest.  This week's dollar gains are being pared in largely corrective activity and amid a light news stream.  The threat of more sanctions on Turkey if it does not release the American pastor is helping the...

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