Tag Archive: newsletter

Cool Video: OIl, ECB, and Animal Spirits

2020-04-09

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2020-04-09

I had the privilege to join Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade (from a remote location) this morning to talk about the global markets.  I make four points.  First, the reversal of the S&P 500 yesterday set the tone for Asia and Europe.  Volatility throughout the capital markets remains elevated, even if off the peaks.  

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Dollar Firm as Europe Fails to Deliver

2020-04-09

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2020-04-09

The dollar is stabilizing; reports suggest the White House is developing a plan to reopen the US economy sooner rather than later. Both Hong Kong and Singapore just tightened restrictions on gathering and movement. FOMC minutes for the March 15 decision will be released today.

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All Crises Are Local

2020-04-09

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2020-04-09

South Dakota is not New York City. A seemingly innocuous statement, made last Wednesday by Governor Kristi Noem in response to calls for her to issue a coronavirus shutdown across a state with the motto "Under God the People Rule." South Dakota, after all, is one of the least densely populated states in the vast American West.

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Fragile, Not Fortified

2020-04-09

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2020-04-09

Credit Spreads, 2017-2020
On Sunday, Argentina’s government announced it was postponing payment on any domestically-issued debt instruments denominated in foreign currencies. That means dollars, just not Eurobonds. At least not yet. In response, ratings agencies such as Fitch declared the maneuver a distressed debt exchange.In other words, technically a default.

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Rory Sutherland: How The Austrian Approach Helps Entrepreneurs Multiply Value

2020-04-09

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2020-04-09

Key Takeaways And Actionable Insights. In episode 60, we are joined by Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy, one of the world’s largest advertising and marketing agencies, one with a long tradition of customer insights. His latest book is titled Alchemy, which explores how a deep understanding of subjective value can lead to outstandingly effective creative marketing.

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FX Daily, April 8: Flavor of the Day: Consolidation

2020-04-08

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2020-04-08

Overview: Global equities are struggling after the S&P 500 staged a dramatic reversal yesterday. The early 3.5% gain was completely unwound and closed slightly lower.  With few exceptions (e.g., Japan and the Philippines), most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region and Europe are lower.

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Negativzinsen verursachen steigende Hypo-Zinsen – erst Recht zur „Corona-Unzeit“

2020-04-08

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2020-04-08

„Ich glaube, dass einige Kommentatoren die Strenge der eingeführten Massnahmen (Einführung der Negativzinsen, Anmerkung des Autors) noch nicht ganz begriffen haben (…).“

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Emergency funding made available for artists and designers

2020-04-08

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2020-04-08

People who work in the cultural sector in Switzerland can now apply for funds to cushion the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Swiss government last month adopted a package of measures totalling CHF280 million ($287 million).

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-04-08

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2020-04-08

With many markets still under lockdown and some going out on Easter holidays this week, we continue to see amended trading hours. The most notable change has been in India with a reduction in trading hours, while in Nigeria we saw a small amount of liquidity being released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Below are our updates for the week.

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Creating More Money Won’t Revive the Economy

2020-04-08

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2020-04-08

In response to the coronavirus, central banks worldwide are currently pumping massive amounts of money. This pumping, it is held, is going to arrest the negative economic side effects that the virus-related panic inflicts on economies. As appealing as it sounds we suggest that this view is erroneous.

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In March, US Deaths From COVID-19 Totaled Less Than 2 Percent of All Deaths

2020-04-08

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2020-04-08

All US Deaths vs. US Covid-19 Deaths, March
About 2.9 million people die in the United States each year from all causes. Monthly this total ranges from around 220,000 in the summertime to more than 280,000 in winter. In recent decades, flu season has often peaked sometime from January to March, and this is a major driver in total deaths. The average daily number of deaths from December through March is over eight thousand.

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical set-up remains tilted in favour of bullish traders

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF traded with a positive bias for the sixth consecutive session on Monday. Bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the very important 200-DMA. The USD/CHF pair built on last week's goodish positive move of around 300 pips and continued gaining traction for the sixth straight session on Monday.

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Devisen: Eurokurs gibt leicht nach – Wenig verändert zum Franken

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

Gegenüber dem Schweizer Franken notiert der Euro mit 1,0556 ebenfalls wenig verändert. Und der Dollar kostet 0,9777 Franken. Derweil interveniert die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) wohl weiterhin am Devisenmarkt. Denn die erneut kräftige Zunahme der Sichtguthaben - diese Woche um 6,7 Milliarden nach 11,7 Milliarden in der Vorwoche - deutet daraufhin, dass sich die SNB auch in der vergangenen Woche gegen die Aufwertung des Frankens gestemmt hat.

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Government urged to do more to help companies

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

The Swiss government should scale up its efforts to help businesses overcome the coronavirus crisis, according to the director of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. Transport companies are also calling for more assistance.

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Recession is unavoidable, reckon Swiss finance bosses

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

The coronavirus pandemic has fundamentally changed the economic outlook for Switzerland within a very short period of time, with Swiss CFOs more pessimistic than ever before. Neither during the euro crisis nor during the Swiss franc shock were chief financial officers as negative about economic prospects as they are today, according to the latest half-yearly survey published on Monday by consultants Deloitte.

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It’s Hard To See Anything But Enormous Long-term Cost

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

The unemployment rate wins again. In a saner era, back when what was called economic growth was actually economic growth, this primary labor ratio did a commendable job accurately indicating the relative conditions in the labor market. You didn’t go looking for corroboration because it was all around; harmony in numbers for a far more peaceful and serene period.

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Dollar Mixed, Equities Higher as Virus News Stream Improves

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

It was a relatively good weekend in virus-related news; measures of implied volatility continue to trend lower. The dollar is trying to build on its recent gains; investors continue to try and gauge just how bad the US economy will get hit. The outlook for oil prices remains highly uncertain and volatile.

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What “Lender of Last Resort” Is Supposed to Mean

2020-04-07

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2020-04-07

Modern central banks have already moved far beyond what was once considered the proper role for a central bank as a "lender of last resort." Now Keynesians and MMTers (modern monetary theorists) want to take things even further.

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FX Daily, April 6: Glimmer of Hope Lifts Markets

2020-04-06

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2020-04-06

Overview:  Reports suggesting that some of the hot spots for the virus contagion appear to be leveling off, and this is helping underpin risk appetites today.  The curve seems to be flattening in Italy, Spain, and France.  In the US, there are some early signs of leveling off in NY, and now, the number of states with infection rates above 20% is less than 10 from over 40 last week.

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If Lockdown Is a Needless Over-Reaction, Then Why Did China Lockdown Half its Economy?

2020-04-06

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2020-04-06

Exponential growth and the expansion of the coronavirus
Recall that the initial deaths and related costs are only the first-order effects; policy makers have to consider the second-order effects. Everyone who reckons that the lockdown is needless and more destructive than the pandemic that triggered it has to answer this question: then why did China lockdown half its economy?

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