Tag Archive: newsletter

This Thing Is Only Getting Started; Or, *All* The V’s Are Light On The Right

2020-06-14

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2020-06-14

The Federal Reserve’s models really are the most optimistic of the bunch. With the policy meeting conducted today, no surprises as far as policies go, we now know what ferbus has to say about everything that’s happened this year. Skipping the usual March projections, what with the FOMC totally occupied at the time by a complete global monetary meltdown Jay Powell now says “we saw it coming”, the central bank staff released the calculations...

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Why The FOMC Just Embraced The Stock Bubble (and anything else remotely sounding inflationary)

2020-06-14

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2020-06-14

Mainstream Models World Bank
The job, as Jay Powell currently sees it, means building up the S&P 500 as sky high as it can go. The FOMC used to pay lip service to valuations, but now everything is different. He’ll signal to all those fund managers by QE raising bank reserves, leading them on in what they all want to believe is “money printing” (that isn’t).

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The Great Society: A Lesson in American Central Planning

2020-06-14

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2020-06-14

Most people associate the Great Society initiative with Lyndon Baines Johnson. There is very good reason for that, to be sure. As president, Johnson, the “master of the Senate,” was the driving force behind the raft of legislation that passed during his administration, the 1964 and 1965 legislation that framed and filled in his vision for a “great society” in which the blessings of postwar America’s bonanza would be shared by all.

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A Dollar Crash Is Coming

2020-06-14

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2020-06-14

◆The world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism. The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end. In the 1960s French Finance Minister Valery Giscard d’Estaing coined that phrase largely out of frustration, bemoaning a United States that drew freely on the rest of the world to support its overextended standard of...

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Swiss forests are healthy but need better management

2020-06-13

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2020-06-13

Despite threats such as drought and insects, Swiss forests are better equipped to handle natural hazards than they were a decade ago. Not content to mind her own business, Susan studied journalism in Boston so she’d have the perfect excuse to put herself in other people’s shoes and worlds. When not writing, she presents and produces podcasts and videos.

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Cool Video: A Quick Review of the the FOMC and a Look to Next Week

2020-06-13

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2020-06-13

Sometimes the news drives the price action, but sometimes the price action drives the news.  If the initial rally in US stocks after the FOMC meeting had been sustained and if the dollar had continued to decline, observers would drawing a different conclusion.  

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Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Sentiment Intensifies After FOMC Decision

2020-06-13

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2020-06-13

Coronavirus Daily Change, 2020
Concerns about still rising infection numbers and a second wave ofCovid-19 have contributed to today’s downdraft in risk assets; for now, the weak dollar trend is hard to fight. Despite delivering no change in policy, the Fed nonetheless sent an unequivocally dovish signal; stocks have not reacted well to the Fed; weekly jobless claims and May PPI will be reported.

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Deep State to Powell: Stop Goosing Stocks Higher Or You’ll Re-Elect Trump

2020-06-13

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2020-06-13

Come on, Jay, you can always goose stocks back to new highs after the election. Indulge me for a moment in some backroom speculation. It's absurdly obvious that the unelected, permanent, ever-expanding National Security State, a.k.a the Deep State, and its Democratic Party allies have been attempting to torpedo Donald Trump since the 2016 election took them by surprise. (Imagine doing everything that worked so well in the past and failing at the...

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The Employment Situation Is Still a Disaster

2020-06-13

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2020-06-13

US Unemployment Rate, 2011-2020
Last Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released new unemployment data. The report surprised many because it showed a decrease in the unemployment rate, while many observers had expected an increase.

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Reject the “Next Generation EU Plan”

2020-06-13

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2020-06-13

The Václav Klaus Institute urging the Czech Government to reject the dangerous Ursula von der Leyen´s plan. It is rather rare that I share articles on my channel that are not from my own pen. The following article is therefore an exception and for good reason. It is written by none other than the former President of the Czech Republic Václav Klaus, with whom I have a long-standing relationship, based on great respect and many shared values.

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FX Daily, June 12: Licking Yesterday’s Wounds Today

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Overview:  The nearly three-month rally in risk assets ended with high drama with a stomach-churning almost 6% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday. Follow-through selling was seen in the Asia Pacific region, but most markets recovered from their lows, and although losses were still recorded, the downside momentum seemed broken. The same holds true for Europe. Bourses opened lower but by mid-morning had moved higher (~1.4%) and US shares are trading...

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Expats in Switzerland need even deeper pockets

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Three Swiss cities – Zurich, Bern and Geneva – are among the ten most expensive in the world for expatriates, according to the annual Cost of Living survey by consultants Mercer. Hong Kong remains at the top of the list of 209 countries for the third year in a row. Six of the top ten are in Asia, three in Switzerland and one in the United States.

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Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Equity Markets YTD Performance, 2020
Today’s risk off price action appears to have been triggered by profit-taking; the dollar has gotten some traction. The Fed expanded its Main Street Loan Program to include more businesses; the jobs rebound has removed a sense of urgency regarding the next round of fiscal stimulus.

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We Have Reached The Silly Phase of the Bull Market

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Have we entered a new bull market? Was the 35% pullback in the S&P 500 in March the fastest bear market in history? Or is this just a continuation of the bull market that started in 2009, interrupted by a rather large correction? Bull markets and bear markets are about behavior, about the human emotions of fear and greed. While we got a brief bout of fear in March, greed has since overwhelmed all sense, common and otherwise.

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Mark Packard’s Value Learning Process: The Two Kinds of Knowledge Entrepreneurs Must Have

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

The Two Kinds of Knowledge Entrepreneurs Must Have
Key Takeaways and Actionable Insights. Innovation is one of the keys to business success. The world is changing at such a pace, and your customers’ preferences are changing so fast, that your business has to change at the same speed, or even faster. How to keep up is a part of the entrepreneurial challenge.

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Economic Collapse Has Turned Many Europeans against the EU

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Eurozone Economy Shrinks at Record Pace, 1999-2020
Since the beginning of the year, the corona crisis has monopolized news coverage to the extent that a lot of very important stories and developments either went underreported or were ignored altogether. One such example was the very surprising ruling that came out of the German Constitutional Court in early May, which challenged the actions and remit of the European Central Bank (ECB).

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FX Daily, June 11: Are Risk Appetites Satiated, or Simply Taking the Day Off?

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

Many observers are attributing the sell-off in risk assets today to the Federal Reserve's pessimistic outlook, yet, as we note below, the Fed's median GDP forecast this year is better than many international agency forecasts, including the OECD's that was issued yesterday.  Moreover, some near-term trends were already in place.

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Swiss Post set to relaunch its e-voting system

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

The controversial issue of e-voting is back: Swiss Post, which had halted the development of a project in July 2019, has bought a Spanish-owned system and plans to propose a platform ready for testing by 2021.

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OECD forecasts drop in Swiss economic growth in 2020

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

Even though restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of Covid-19 were less strict than in other countries, Switzerland will still see its GDP fall by 7.7%, if the pandemic is contained by summer.

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Dollar Broadly Weaker Ahead of FOMC Decision

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

US HY Yield, 2019-2020
The FOMC decision comes out this afternoon and we expect a dovish hold; this would of course be negative for the dollar. Ahead of the decision, May CPI will be reported; the budget statement will be of interest; Brazil reports May IPCA inflation. We are still getting mixed messages about Europe’s flagship €750 bln recovery package; French April IP fell -20.1% m/m.

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