Tag Archive: newsletter

Hörbuch: 1. Kapitel aus dem Buch SETZE DIR GRÖSSERE ZIELE

2019-02-05

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FX Daily, February 05: Greenback Remains Firm

2019-02-05

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2019-02-05

Overview: The US dollar is little firmer against most of the major currencies.  Despite some disappointing data (retail sales, trade, PMI), the Australian dollar has recovered from initial losses below $0.7200 on the back of the central bank's reluctance to adopt an easing bias.  A small upward revision in the eurozone's flash service and composite PMIs help steady the euro after it neared $1.14.

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Swiss firms increase EU lobbying

2019-02-05

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2019-02-05

Swiss companies have sharply increased their lobbying in Brussels in the face of uncertain relations with the European Union. Switzerland has more companies lobbying in Brussels than many other European countries, writes the SonntagsBlick newspaper, citing the EU’s latest transparency register.

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The Coming Global Financial Crisis: Debt Exhaustion

2019-02-05

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2019-02-05

Debt Securities and Loans 1960-2018
The global economy is way past the point of maximum debt saturation, and so the next stop is debt exhaustion. Just as generals fight the last war, central banks always fight the last financial crisis. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09 was primarily one of liquidity as markets froze up as a result of the collapse of the highly leveraged subprime mortgage sector that had commoditized fraud (hat tip to Manoj S.) via liar loans and...

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Tennessee Considers Removing Tax on Gold and Silver

2019-02-05

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2019-02-05

Several bills introduced in the Tennessee legislature would eliminate sales and use tax against  gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Introduced by Representative Ron Gant (R-Rossville), House Bill 212 removes sales and use tax against platinum, gold and silver bullion, some numismatic coins, and numismatic coins sold at trade show.

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Who Knows the Right Interest Rate, Report 3 Feb 2019

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

Gold and Silver Price
On January 6, we wrote the Surest Way to Overthrow Capitalism. We said: “In a future article, we will expand on why these two statements are true principles: (1) there is no way a central planner could set the right rate, even if he knew and (2) only a free market can know the right rate.” Today’s article is part I that promised article.

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FX Daily, February 04: Subdued Start to Quiet Week

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

Overview: The Lunar New Year celebration made for a quiet Asian session while a light diary in Europe saw subdued turnover. Equity markets are narrowly mixed. Among the three large markets open in Asia Pacific, Australia and Japanese equities rose while India slipped. European bourses are little changed, putting the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 four-day advance at risk.

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Chaos-Politik der SNB mobilisiert SVP und SP: Milliarden für Vorsorge

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

Mit „links und rechts“ hat unsere Schweizerischen Nationalbank (SNB) ihre grosse Mühe. Da ist zunächst ihre Bilanz, bei der sie unfähig ist, „links und rechts“ voneinander zu unterscheiden. Unverstanden gerät sie nun folgerichtig auch politisch immer mehr unter Druck: konsequenterweisee von „links und rechts“.

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No Swiss exemption from EU steel import cap

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

The European Union is imposing limits on steel coming into the bloc from Saturday in response to US President Donald Trump’s metals tariffs. The measures will also affect Swiss steel exports to the EU. The EU said on Friday that it is introducing new measures to prevent steel produced for the US market from flooding into Europe instead because of tariffs introduced by Trump.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days.  The important macro points are known.  The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase. 

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Fear Or Reflation Gold?

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

Dollar Correlations 2016-2019
Gold is on fire, but why is it on fire? When the precious metals’ price falls, Stage 2, we have a pretty good idea what that means (collateral). But when it goes the other way, reflation or fear of deflation? Stage 1 or Stage 3? If it is Stage 1 reflation based on something like the Fed’s turnaround, then we would expect to find US$ markets trading in exactly the same way.

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Short Note on Jobs Report

2019-02-03

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2019-02-03

The January employment report was mixed.  It is unlikely to have a material impact on expectations for Fed policy.  However, it does suggest the downside risks may not materialize. The US economy grew 304k jobs, well above expectation.  It is marred by a 70k net downward revision of the past two months, and notably a 90k cut in December's estimate, which brings it to 222k (from 312k). 

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Bond Curves Right All Along, But It Won’t Matter (Yet)

2019-02-03

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2019-02-03

Real GDP in the Eurodollar Era 1993-2017
Men have long dreamed of optimal outcomes. There has to be a better way, a person will say every generation. Freedom is far too messy and unpredictable. Everybody hates the fat tails, unless and until they realize it is outlier outcomes that actually mark progress. The idea was born in the eighties that Economics had become sufficiently advanced that the business cycle was no longer a valid assumption.

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Swiss wage gap between genders remains bafflingly wide

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

The pay gap between men and women in Switzerland has increased slightly, amounting to hundreds of francs per month on average. Men earned 19.6% more pay than female colleagues in 2016, compared to a 19.5% difference in 2012. While some of this gap can be explained by length of service, additional qualifications and the like, in more than four out of ten cases researchers could see no reason why women are paid less.

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Two Brinkmanship Games and a Possible Third

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

Some historians give Adlai Stevenson credit for inventing the word "brinkmanship" as part of his criticism of US foreign policy under Dulles, who said that "if you are scared of going to the brink, you lost." But surely we can agree that the tactic is as old as civilization. The idea is you take the issue to the very edge, risking a significant confrontation, to force a deal, is the way it may seem.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – February (VIDEO)

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the latest information about markets, specific categories affecting the economy.

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New Crypto Valley Association President seeks to heal divisions

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

The new President of the Crypto Valley Association has vowed to turn around the divided organization. Daniel Haudenschild was elected on Thursday evening together with a new board following months of unrest. Speaking to swissinfo.ch two days after his shock departure from Swisscom Blockchain, Haudenschild said his priorities are to heal divisions, build bridges between other blockchain groups in Switzerland and bring international business and...

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FX Daily, February 01: Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder?

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Overview:  Weak manufacturing PMI readings are curbing risk appetites ahead of the US jobs report.  Growth concerns are top and center after dovish Fed and the Bundesbank's Weidmann warning that Germany may undershoot 1.5% growth this year, though the ink is barely dry on the central bank's forecast for 1.6% growth this year and next.

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Swiss Retail Sales, December 2018: -0.1 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, December 2018
01.02.2019 - Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.1% in nominal terms in December 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration.

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Half of Swiss Population Commutes Half an Hour to Work

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Nine out of ten employees in Switzerland – or four million people total – commuted to work last year, most of them to another municipality, and most by car. In 2017, the average one-way Swiss commute was 15 kilometres (9.3 miles) and took 30.6 minutes, reported the Federal Statistical Officeexternal link on Tuesday.

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