Tag Archive: newsletter

Pound to Swiss Franc forecast: Investors flock to the CHF, will the Swiss National Bank curb demand for the Franc?

2019-08-07

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2019-08-07

Sterling slides against the Swiss Franc as Brexit and the global economic outlook weigh on the Pound. The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate has fallen lower below 1.20 for the GBP vs CHF pair with interbank rates currently sitting at 1.189. The slide in the pound against the Swiss franc has presented those looking to sell Swiss francs with an opportunity to convert when compared to recent months.

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Breite Vermögensaufstellung – Leben von Dividenden – www.aktienerfahren.de

2019-08-07

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Vortrags- und Seminartermine, sowie kostenlose Anforderung des Aktienbewertungsblatts: www.aktienerfahren.de

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Pressure returns on Swiss franc amid global uncertainty

2019-08-07

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2019-08-07

One knock-on effect of the escalating trade war between the United States and China is that the Swiss franc is becoming more attractive for investors – putting pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to come to the defence of the safe haven currency. For much of July a euro bought at least CHF1.10.

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The Sound Money Showdown in U.S. States

2019-08-07

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2019-08-07

Policies relating to sound money have been the subject of substantial debate at the state level this year, with bills, hearings, and/or votes taking place in nearly a dozen legislatures. As most state legislatures have now wrapped up their work for the year, let’s review the victories (both offensive and defensive)—and lone defeat—for sound money during the 2019 session.

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BoJ stays put amid economic headwinds

2019-08-07

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2019-08-07

Growth in Japanese Exports and ISM Business New Orders Index, 2011-2019
Japan's central bank has little room for further easing despite a downbeat outlook.At its monetary policy meeting on 30 July, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged, as expected. The decision came as the Japanese economy faces strong external headwinds and a downbeat outlook for domestic demand.

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FX Daily, August 6: Markets Stabilize with Help of CNY Fix in Muted Turnaround Tuesday

2019-08-06

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2019-08-06

Overview: The escalation of the economic conflict between the world's two largest economies is dominating the capital markets.  The US cited China as a currency manipulator after the North American markets closed, ensuring the troubled start to Asian trading after the US equities and yields plummeted on Monday.  The VIX surged to 25%, doubling in the past week.

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Nothing Is Guaranteed

2019-08-06

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2019-08-06

S&P 500 Everything Bubble, 2000-2018
There are no guarantees, no matter how monumental the hubris and confidence. The American lifestyle and economy depend on a vast number of implicit guarantees-- systemic forms of entitlement that we implicitly feel are our birthright. Chief among these implicit entitlements is the Federal Reserve can always "save the day": the Fed has the tools to escape either an inflationary spiral or a deflationary collapse.

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Cool Video: The implication of CNY7.0+

2019-08-06

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2019-08-06

President Trump's tweets last week announcing the end of the tariff truce signaled a new phase in the US-Chinese tensions.  China responded as did investors.  I was fortunate to have been invited to the Bloomberg set to discuss the issues of the day.

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US tourists flocking to Switzerland amid economic boom  

2019-08-06

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2019-08-06

American visitors to Switzerland have increased by over 40% in five years and represent a major growth motor for the tourism industry, annual statistics show. Chinese and Indian tourists are often seen as the future of Swiss tourism, the SonntagsZeitung and Le Matin Dimanche newspapers reported at the weekend. However, they say, “North America is the real growth engine when it comes to overseas visitors”.

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I Know Usury When I See It, Report 4 Aug

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

Gold and Silver Price
“I know it, when I see it.” This phrase was first used by U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, in a case of obscenity. Instead of defining it—we would think that this would be a requirement for a law, which is of course backed by threat of imprisonment—he resorted to what might be called Begging Common Sense. It’s just common sense, it’s easy-peasy, there’s no need to define the term…

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FX Daily, August 5: China Strikes Back

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

Overview:  Chinese officials took the US tariff hike quietly last week but struck back today.  The PBOC fixed the dollar higher (CNY6.90), which it has not done, and will halt imports of US agriculture. The dollar shot through CNY7.0 to finish the mainland session a little above CNY7.03 and CNH7.07 for the offshore yuan. 

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FX Weekly Preview: The Dog Days of August are Upon Us

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

The die is cast. To defend the uneven expansion and ward off disinflationary forces, monetary authorities will provide more accommodation. The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in more than a decade and stopped unwinding its balance sheet two months earlier than it previously indicated (worth $100 bln of additional buying of Treasuries and Agencies).

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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2019: 0.7 percent Nominal and 0.7 percent Real

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, June 2019
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.7% in nominal terms in June 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 0.7% in June 2019 compared with the previous year.

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August Monthly

2019-08-04

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2019-08-04

After falling against all the major currencies in June, the US dollar rebounded in July. The Dollar Index finished the month at new two-year highs with the Fed’s suggestion it was engaged in a mid-course correction rather than a sustained easing cycle. The dollar also appeared buoyed by the extent of the dovishness by the ECB and the heightened risks that the UK leaves the EU at the end of October without an agreement.

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Switzerland has highest underemployment in Europe

2019-08-04

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2019-08-04

In 2018, 830,000 people in Switzerland were unable to find the work they wanted, according the Federal Statistical Office. While 243,000 were looking but not immediately available and 231,000 were unemployed, most (356,000) were underemployed – working but unable to find as many hours of work as they’d like.

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Brexit Update

2019-08-03

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2019-08-03

The October 31 deadline for the UK to leave the EU is less than 100 days away.  The new Prime Minister is beginning to convince others that that UK will, in fact, leave at the end of October.   PredictIt.Org shows the odds of the UK leaving has risen to almost 50% from about a 33% chance a month ago.   Here is a summary of where the situation stands and some key dates going forward. 

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Swiss apprenticeships – too many places, not enough takers

2019-08-03

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2019-08-03

Figures on unfilled apprenticeship places show the difficulty of matching supply and demand in the labour market. This year there were 12,000 unfilled apprenticeship positions in Switzerland. Switzerland’s apprenticeship model, which helps match workers’ skills with employer demand, is one driver of Switzerland’s low unemployment (4.9%) – 2018 ILO basis.

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After Fed Disappoints, Will Trump Initiate Currency Intervention?

2019-08-03

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2019-08-03

Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated. The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.

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FX Daily, August 2: End of Tariff Truce Trumps Jobs

2019-08-02

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2019-08-02

Overview: The market was finding its sea legs after being hit with wave and counter-wave following the FOMC decision, and more importantly, Powell's attempt to give insight into the Fed's thinking. Trump's tweet than signaled an end to the tariff truce with a 10% levy on the $300 bln of imports from China that have not been subject to action previously.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2019: +0.3 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM

2019-08-02

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2019-08-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, July 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.5% in July 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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