Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, August 13: Investors Remain on Edge

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

Overview:  The confrontation in Hong Kong and the fallout from the Argentine primary over the weekend join concerns the conflict between the two largest economies and slower growth to force the animal spirits into hibernation.  Global equities remain under pressure.  Japan's Topix joined several other markets in the region to have given up its year-to-date gain. 

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback under pressure below 0.9700 as sellers challenge June lows

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

USD/CHF daily chart, August 13
CHF is up as Wall Street indices start the week in the red. The level to beat for bears are at the 0.9675 and 0.9660 levels.

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The Economic Singularity, Report 11 Aug

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

Gold and Silver Price
We have recently written several essays about the fallacious concept of Gross Domestic Product. Among GDP’s several fatal flaws, it goes up when capital is converted to consumer goods, when seed corn is served at the feast. So we proposed—and originally dismissed—the idea of a national balance sheet.

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FX Daily, August 12: Yen Remains Bid, While Macri’s Loss in Argentina Weighs on Struggling Mexican Peso

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Overview: China again tried to temper the downside pressure on the yuan, and this appears to be helping the risk-taking attitude. Many centers in Asia were closed today, including Japan and India, though most of the other equity markets advanced modestly, including China, Korea, and Australia. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened firmer but is staddling little changed levels unable to stain any upside momentum.

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Nationalbank dürfte erneut interveniert haben

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Darauf deuten die Sichtguthaben bei SNB hin, die als Indiz für solche Interventionen gelten und in der vergangenen Woche deutlich gestiegen sind. Die Einlagen von Bund und Banken lagen am 9. August bei 585,5 Milliarden Franken, wie die SNB am Montag mitteilte. Das ist ein Anstieg von rund 2,8 Milliarden gegenüber der Vorwoche.

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Update on gold – bad news is good news

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Gold Price vs US 10-year Real Rates, 2012-2019
Increased trade tensions have boosted the gold price to above USD 1,500.The increased trade tensions following Trump’s 1 August tweet threatening additional tariffs on Chinese goods has boosted the gold price above USD 1,500 per troy ounce.The recent developments are supportive of gold investment demand because of a lower opportunity cost associated with holding gold and greater demand for safe haven assets.

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The Internal War in the Deep State Claims Its High Profile Casualty: Jeffrey Epstein

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

The "traditionalist" Neocons are going to have to decide to fish or cut bait. I've been writing about the fracturing Deep State for the past five years: The conflict has now reached the hot-war stage where bodies are turning up, explained away by the usual laughable covers: "suicide," "accident" and "heart attack." That Jeffrey Epstein's death in a secure cell is being labeled "suicide" tells us quite a lot about the desperation of the faction...

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Survey shows growing political acceptance for a fuel tax

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Analysis of survey questions filled out by Swiss politicians in 2015 and 2019 shows a marked turnaround in attitudes towards the introduction of a carbon tax on fuel. The Smartvote online platform asks politicians various attitudinal questions in an effort to help voters make up their minds in the lead up to national elections.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Deterioration

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

The US-China tensions remain the dominant driver of investor risk appetites. President Trump has repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency on twitter, and finally Treasury Secretary Mnuchiin acquiesced after China failed to prevent the dollar from rising above CNY7.0.

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The Myth of CNY DOWN = STIMULUS Won’t Die

2019-08-11

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2019-08-11

China Exports, 2006-2019
On the one hand, it’s a small silver lining in how many even in the mainstream are beginning to realize that there really is something wrong. Then again, they are using “trade wars” to make sense of how that could be. For the one, at least they’ve stopped saying China’s economy is strong and always looks resilient no matter what data comes out.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback stable near 0.9755 as US stocks recover

2019-08-11

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2019-08-11

USD/CHF daily chart
The demand for the Swiss franc decreases as Wall Street indices are gaining strength. The level to beat for bulls are at 0.9790 and 0.9815 level.

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The US labels China a currency manipulator

2019-08-10

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2019-08-10

USD/CNY Spot Rate, 2000-2019
The near-term impact will likely be limited but this is a clear negative for trade negotiations.Shortly after the renminbi’s sharp depreciation on Monday, the US Treasury Department labelled China a currency manipulator. This is the first time in 25 years that the US government has designated a country as a currency manipulator.According to the US Treasury Department, the decision was triggered by the perceived lack of action by the PBoC to resist...

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Novartis rejects suspected data manipulation in US

2019-08-09

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2019-08-09

Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis has dismissed criticism that it allegedly withheld information about animal testing data inaccuracies to United States authorities for a human gene therapy. Novartis said its subsidiary in California began investigating the alleged data manipulation for its gene therapy Zolgensma as soon as it learned about it.

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Currency update – the Chinese renminbi

2019-08-09

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2019-08-09

Growth in Japanese Exports and ISM Business New Orders Index, 2011-2019
Despite the CNY's recent fall, we believe the People's Bank of China will refrain from competitive devaluationFollowing US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 10% tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods, the Chinese renminbi (rmb) weakened sharply and breached CNY7.00 per USD.

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Yes, the Dollar is Above CNY7.0, but No, the Sky is Not Falling

2019-08-08

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2019-08-08

The world's two great powers are at loggerheads. Chinese nationalism meet your sister, US nationalism. Import substitution strategy of Made in China 2025 meet your cousin Make America Great Again. Paradoxically, or dialectically, the similarities are producing divergent interests that extend well beyond economics and trade policy.

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Chinese-owned Swissmetal sold to Swiss investors

2019-08-08

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2019-08-08

The cash-strapped Baoshida Swissmetal company has been taken over by a group of Swiss investors six years after it was sold to a Chinese group. The newly-founded Swissmetal Industries, backed by two private investors, said it had acquired the firm, which employs about 160 people at two factories in the small towns of Dornach and Reconvilier.

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The Gulag of the Mind

2019-08-08

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2019-08-08

Befuddled and blind, we wander toward the cliff without even seeing it, focusing on our little screens of entertainment and self-absorption. There are no physical barriers in the Gulag of the Mind--we imprison ourselves, and love our servitude. Indeed, we fear the world outside our internalized gulag, because we've absorbed the narrative that the gulag is secure and permanent.

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SNB erhält Lektion von der neuen Stoosbahn

2019-08-08

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2019-08-08

Quizfrage: Was kurbelt den Schweizer Tourismus mehr an? Der Kauf von Hanf-Aktien in den USA für 80 Millionen Franken oder der Bau der Stoosbahn für 80 Millionen Franken? Welches ist Ihre Antwort, verehrte Leserin, verehrter Leser?

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FX Daily, August 7: Three Asian Central Banks Surprise Investors

2019-08-07

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2019-08-07

While investors keep a watchful eye on the dollar fix in China (a little firmer than projected) and tensions with the US, two other developments compete for attention. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the central banks of India and Thailand surprised the market with lower rates. The RBNZ cut by 50 bp, India by 35 bp, and the fact that Thailand cut at all was unexpected.

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