Tag Archive: newsletter

Real Estate Perfectly Sums Up The Rate Cuts

2019-07-28

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2019-07-28

NAR Existing Home Sales, Jan 2011 - May 2019
It’s only a confusing when you just accept the booming economy of the unemployment rate. From this perspective, 2018 was, and more so 2019 is, a downright conundrum. By all mainstream accounts, this just shouldn’t be happening.

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Expat Swiss Celebrated at Historic Winegrower’s Festival

2019-07-27

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2019-07-27

Colours of the Swiss flag
The expatriate Swiss community has been attending the once-in-a-lifetime Fête des Vignerons, currently taking place on the shores of Lake Geneva. A delegation of Swiss citizens living across the world, including leading members of the Organisation of the Swiss Abroadexternal link (OSA), gathered in Vevey to participate in the event on Thursday.

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Seven Points on the ECB and the Price Action

2019-07-27

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2019-07-27

Confusion
As soon as it was clear that the ECB was not easing today, the euro began to recover, after making a marginal new low for the year (just above $1.11). Draghi made it clear that easing was going to be delivered in September and on several fronts including rates (with mitigating measures like tiering) and new asset purchases (not decided on instruments, which plays into speculation of equity purchases—though I strongly doubt this will materialize).

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US Economic Crosscurrents Reach the 50 Mark

2019-07-27

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2019-07-27

U.S. PMI Chicago Fed NAI, Jan 2006 - July 2019
In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view somewhat.

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FX Daily, July 26: Markets Consolidate as the Dollar Index Extends its Advance for the Sixth Consecutive Session

2019-07-26

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2019-07-26

Investors are happy for the weekend. Between the ECB, Brexit, and next week's FOMC, BOJ, and BOE meetings, the markets are mostly in a consolidative mode ahead of the weekend. The first look at Q2 US GDP is the last important data point of the week, though it is unlikely to impact next week's Fed decision.

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Swiss Central Bank under Pressure as Franc Rises

2019-07-26

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2019-07-26

Swiss Franc Exchange Rate
Yesterday, the Swiss franc reached its highest level against the euro in two years. The EUR/CHF exchange rate reached 1.097 on 24 July 2019, a rate not seen since early 2017. Upward pressure on the franc is partly being driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by eurozone and US central banks. In addition, the franc is considered a safe haven currency and typically rises when global risk perceptions rise.

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TOP TRADER Signals mit Martin Goersch: JC Lizard

2019-07-26

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Trading Software AgenaTrader https://agenatrader.com/ die ultimative Trading Plattform für Futures, Forex, Aktien und CFD Trading. HINWEIS: Börsengeschäfte sind mit erheblichen Risiken verbunden. Wer an den Finanz- und Rohstoffmärkten handelt, muss sich vorher selbstständig mit den Risiken vertraut machen. Eventuell dargestellte Analysen, Techniken und Methoden stellen keine Aufforderung zum Handel an den Finanz- und Rohstoffmärkten dar. Diese...

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BREXIT UNCERTAINTY TO WEIGH ON YIELDS

2019-07-26

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2019-07-26

UK 10-YEAR Gilt Yield Breakdown and Forecast, 2014 - 2019
UK sovereign bond (gilts) yields have fallen this year, with the 10-year yield dropping by 59 basis points (bps) to 0.69%1, in concert with other core sovereign bond yields. The Brexit saga, along with the global slowdown forcing many central banks to turn dovish, are the main factors behind this steep fall.

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It’s Not Just the News That’s Fake–Everything’s Fake

2019-07-26

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2019-07-26

SPX Everything Bubble, 2000 - 2019
What do we mean when we say corporate media is fake? We mean it's a carefully crafted con, a set of narratives, cherry-picked data and heavily massaged statistics (the unemployment rate, etc.) designed to instill the reader's confidence in a narrative that serves the interests not of the citizenry but of a select few pillaging the citizenry.

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Gold Consolidates Near All Time High In British Pounds

2019-07-26

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2019-07-26

Gold Price, 10-years
Sterling is under pressure today and gold near all time record highs in sterling (see chart) due to the likelihood that Britain’s ruling Conservative party will elect Boris Johnson (aka ‘BoJo’) as its new leader and Prime Minister today.

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FX Daily, July 25: ECB Takes Center Stage

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

The euro remains stuck in its trough below $1.1150 ahead of the ECB meeting. The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. The yen continues to resist the draw of the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are lower. The Turkish lira is weaker ahead of its central bank meeting, which is expected to deliver a large cut (~250 bp).

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Swiss Railway Tracks Buckle under the Heat

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

The hottest day of the year in Switzerland caused a headache for the Swiss Federal Railways. Track damage occurred on Wednesday in the Zurich Oberland, canton Aargau near Brugg and in the Geneva area. Railways spokesman Raffael Hirt confirmed that lines had been interrupted in Zurich between Pfäffikon and Wetzikon and in Aargau between Wildegg and Brugg.

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Germany Struggles On

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, Jan 2006 - 2019
The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike.

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BNS, les taux vont encore être baissés

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

Evolution de CHF contre EUR
De son bilan démesuré supérieur au PIB suisse. De ne pas avoir vendu les euros achetés quand elle le pouvait. D’avoir dû abandonner le taux plancher de 1.2 CHF pour 1 EUR sous la pression du marché (je l’avais prévu, mais la BNS a quand même tenu 3 ans et demi). Qu’avec les taux négatifs, les caisses de pensions (donc les retraites) subissent des ponctions anormales.

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Financial Media Elite Defensively Bash “Useless” Gold

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

At least the Financial Times now has come clean about its hostility to gold – as well as to free markets and elementary journalism. Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) friend Chris Kniel of Orinda, California, sent to the newspaper's chief economic columnist, Martin Wolf, the excellent summary of gold and silver market manipulation just written by gold researcher Ronan Manly.

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What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

New Home Sales Population Adjusted, 1987-2019
In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one thing out of the Global Financial Crisis which was seared into the consciousness of everyone who lived through it.

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FX Daily, July 24: Poor PMI Weighs on Euro Ahead of ECB

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 24
Overview:  Disappointing flash PMI pushed an already offered euro lower ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. European bonds rallied and equities, amid a rash of earnings, is trying to extend the advance for a fourth consecutive session.  Italian and Spanish 10-year benchmark yields are off four-six basis points, while core bond yields are off two-three basis points.

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Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates remain docile despite yesterday’s UK political developments

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

Movement for the Pound to Swiss Franc pair limited. Pound to Swiss franc exchange rates have remained relatively rangebound this week, despite yesterday’s political developments inside the UK. Whilst the GBP/CHF pair is historically less volatile than GBP/EUR for an example, a range of only two cents movement over the past month is testament to the current market uncertainty.

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DM credit caught between opposing forces

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

EURO AND US IG CREDIT SPREADS
Despite the impressive year-to-date performance of corporate credit, we remain prudent about prospects in the remainder of 2019.Corporate bonds have posted stellar total returns year to date, thanks to the positive combination of lower sovereign yields and tighter credit spreads.

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Switzerland has the Highest Underemployment Rate in Europe

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

Swiss Women Work Time
2018, 7% of Switzerland's workforce claimed they would like to work more. Women are the most affected. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) figures publsihed on Tuesday, Switzerland’s labour pool has 830,000 people. This includes 356,000 underemployed individuals, 231,000 unemployed and 243,000 people who are looking for work but not available to start immediately.

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